SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Hurt
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsEuropean Rugby Champions Cup BerthChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated to ProD2
PGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567891011121314Avg.Change%ChangeRPI
Toulon7015-0-9189InYes7518611.3+0.29No2RC Toulonnais
Toulouse6515-0-989In+2.9Yes+2.96393118612.8+0.73No1Stade Toulousain
Clermont62113-1-913198.8%-0.698.8%-0.61724262274102.9-0.20No4ASM Clermont Auvergne
Paris61113-1-9994.0-1.994.0-1.921423271995104.0-0.16No5Stade Français Paris
Racing Métro 9258112-2-92082.7-1.882.7-1.851321271695305.0-0.09No3Racing Métro 92
Oyonnax5713-0-111854.3-24.154.3-24.102717282216816.4-1.12No-0.06Oyonnax Rugby
Montpellier5511-2-114732.5+18.032.5+18.0031118282013617.2+1.45No-4.08Montpellier Hérault Rugby
Bordeaux-Bègles5511-0-1311626.1+11.326.1+11.30191721251310417.6+1.11No-4.69Union Bordeaux Bègles
La Rochelle50110-3-10-1079.5-0.19.5-0.1036915201814959.3+0.165.0%-4.07Atlantique Stade Rochelais
Grenoble48110-0-13-1051.9+0.51.9+0.50261017192414810.1+0.228.3-6.411FC Grenoble
Brive4811-0-13-124Out-1.8No-1.814122224181910.9-0.8318.7+4.910CA Brive
Castres4710-0-14-92Out-0.7No-0.70615213125211.6-0.6327.4+3.012Castres Olympique
Bayonne479-1-14-41Out-1.9No-1.9389122739211.8-0.9641.1+11.613Aviron Bayonnais
Lyon3517-0-16-150OutNo149614.0+0.0399.4-0.414Lyon OU

Bonus points for Top14 are different than most rugby unions:
1 bonus point for winning while scoring at least 3 more tries than the opponent.
1 bonus point for losing by 5 points (or less).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 5/9
Bordeaux-Bègles 26 Oyonnax 23
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse-1.3
-1.3
Paris-0.2
-0.2
+0.1
Oyonnax-18.7
-18.7
-1.0
Montpellier+2.3
+2.3
+0.5
Bordeaux-Bègles+14.6
+14.6
-4.3
+1.1
La Rochelle+0.8
+0.8
+0.4
Grenoble+0.6
+0.6
+0.9
Brive+0.7
+0.7
+0.7
Bayonne+1.1
+1.1
+1.7
Montpellier 33 Bayonne 16
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse-0.7
-0.7
Clermont-0.5
-0.5
Paris-2.1
-2.1
Racing Métro 92-2.1
-2.1
Oyonnax-2.7
-2.7
*No
Montpellier+13.0
+13.0
No
+1.3
Bordeaux-Bègles-1.2
-1.2
+0.5
La Rochelle-0.9
-0.9
-0.6
Grenoble-0.2
-0.2
-3.5
Brive-0.3
-0.3
-3.0
Castres-0.4
-0.4
-7.9
BayonneOut
No
+18.7
-1.1
Lyon-0.1
Toulouse 67 Brive 19
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ToulouseIn
Yes
+0.8
Clermont-0.2
Paris-0.2
Racing Métro 92-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
Oyonnax-1.1
-1.1
Montpellier+0.2
+0.2
-1.0
+0.1
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.2
-0.2
-1.2
La Rochelle-2.1
+0.2
Grenoble+0.2
+0.2
-1.4
+0.2
BriveOut
No
+10.7
-0.9
Castres-1.4
Bayonne+0.2
+0.2
-3.6
+0.2
Toulon 37 Castres 21
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.3
Racing Métro 92+0.2
+0.2
Montpellier+0.3
+0.3
-1.7
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.2
-0.2
-2.0
La Rochelle+0.2
+0.2
-2.4
+0.1
Grenoble-3.8
+0.2
Brive-1.6
CastresOut
No
+15.2
-0.8
Bayonne+0.2
+0.2
-3.6
+0.2
Lyon-0.1
Racing Métro 92 vs ParisIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris87.798.3In
87.798.3Yes
4.93.73.2
Racing Métro 9296.388.068.6
96.388.068.6
4.15.06.0
Montpellier30.030.135.3
30.030.135.3
7.27.27.1
Bordeaux-Bègles23.722.729.0
23.722.729.0
7.77.87.5
La Rochelle8.18.311.1
8.18.311.1
9.39.39.2
Lyon vs La RochelleHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9284.984.280.4
84.984.280.4
4.95.05.1
Oyonnax57.156.951.2
57.156.951.2
6.36.36.5
Montpellier34.431.830.7
34.431.830.7
7.07.27.3
La Rochelle0.85.718.7
0.85.718.7
10.41.4No
10.39.38.3
Bayonne38.843.143.2
11.711.811.9
Lyon98.8YesYes
13.914.014.0
Grenoble vs ClermontHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Clermont97.5InIn
97.5YesYes
3.63.22.3
Grenoble4.00.5Out
4.00.5No
0.67.216.2
9.210.211.0
Brive21.520.815.8
11.111.110.8
Bayonne44.039.838.3
11.911.711.6
Week of 5/16
Oyonnax vs LyonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris92.495.095.6
92.495.095.6
4.13.93.9
Racing Métro 9279.080.386.7
79.080.386.7
5.15.14.9
Oyonnax79.747.129.6
79.747.129.6
5.56.67.3
Montpellier24.231.341.0
24.231.341.0
7.47.27.0
Bordeaux-Bègles18.937.032.3
18.937.032.3
7.97.47.5
La Rochelle7.28.112.0
7.28.112.0
9.49.49.2
LyonYesYes98.8
14.014.013.9
Paris vs MontpellierHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ParisInIn87.5
YesYes87.5
3.33.54.7
Racing Métro 9286.085.179.3
86.085.179.3
Oyonnax60.446.048.9
60.446.048.9
6.36.66.5
Montpellier8.927.956.6
8.927.956.6
8.17.36.2
Bordeaux-Bègles31.329.320.7
31.329.320.7
7.57.57.8
La Rochelle11.110.67.9
11.110.67.9
9.29.29.4
Bordeaux-Bègles vs BayonneHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9278.885.586.4
78.885.586.4
5.14.94.9
Oyonnax45.849.763.2
45.849.763.2
6.66.56.2
Montpellier28.730.836.5
28.730.836.5
7.47.37.0
Bordeaux-Bègles47.226.85.0
47.226.85.0
6.77.48.7
La Rochelle7.411.011.5
7.411.011.5
9.39.19.3
Grenoble1.31.52.6
1.31.52.6
5.010.511.5
10.110.310.1
Brive11.723.725.3
10.811.111.1
Castres15.035.438.9
11.411.711.8
Bayonne64.725.219.1
12.611.711.0
Lyon98.8YesYes
La Rochelle vs Racing Métro 92HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9267.991.196.7
67.991.196.7
5.84.94.2
Oyonnax54.058.054.1
54.058.054.1
6.46.36.4
Montpellier34.829.530.5
34.829.530.5
7.27.37.1
Bordeaux-Bègles28.623.823.9
28.623.823.9
7.77.87.6
La Rochelle19.42.90.3
19.42.90.3
No1.310.4
8.29.310.3
Castres29.028.925.5
11.711.711.5
Bayonne43.243.138.8
11.911.911.6
Grenoble vs ToulouseHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse3.42.62.3
Grenoble4.00.5Out
4.00.5No
0.67.216.2
9.210.211.0
Brive21.520.915.8
11.111.110.8
Castres28.827.125.9
11.711.511.5
Bayonne44.139.738.3
11.911.711.6
Clermont vs ToulonHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulon1.61.21.0
ClermontInIn97.5
YesYes97.5
2.23.33.7
Castres vs BriveHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Grenoble11.111.05.3
10.110.110.2
Brive38.013.5No
12.011.19.9
Castres4.233.449.9
10.711.812.5
Bayonne41.336.741.3
11.811.511.8
LyonYesYes98.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Anonymous for adding this league.

Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:37 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)