Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsEuropean Rugby Champions Cup BerthChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated to ProD2
SaturdayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567891011121314Avg.Change%ChangeRPISunday
ToulonWCastres 37-217015-0-9189InYes7518611.3+0.29No2RC Toulonnais
ToulouseWBrive 67-196515-0-989In+2.9Yes+2.96393118612.8+0.73No1Stade Toulousain
Clermontat Grenoble62113-1-913198.8%-0.698.8%-0.61724262274102.9-0.20No4ASM Clermont Auvergne
Paris61113-1-9994.0-1.994.0-1.921423271995104.0-0.16No5at Racing Métro 92Stade Français Paris
Racing Métro 9258112-2-92082.7-1.882.7-1.851321271695305.0-0.09No3ParisRacing Métro 92
OyonnaxLBordeaux-Bègles 23-265713-0-111854.3-24.154.3-24.102717282216816.4-1.12No-0.06Oyonnax Rugby
MontpellierWBayonne 33-165511-2-114732.5+18.032.5+18.0031118282013617.2+1.45No-4.08Montpellier Hérault Rugby
Bordeaux-BèglesWOyonnax 26-235511-0-1311626.1+11.326.1+11.30191721251310417.6+1.11No-4.69Union Bordeaux Bègles
La Rochelleat Lyon50110-3-10-1079.5-0.19.5-0.1036915201814959.3+0.165.0%-4.07Atlantique Stade Rochelais
GrenobleClermont48110-0-13-1051.9+0.51.9+0.50261017192414810.1+0.228.3-6.411FC Grenoble
BriveLToulouse 19-674811-0-13-124Out-1.8No-1.814122224181910.9-0.8318.7+4.910CA Brive
CastresLToulon 21-374710-0-14-92Out-0.7No-0.70615213125211.6-0.6327.4+3.012Castres Olympique
BayonneLMontpellier 16-33479-1-14-41Out-1.9No-1.9389122739211.8-0.9641.1+11.613Aviron Bayonnais
LyonLa Rochelle3517-0-16-150OutNo149614.0+0.0399.4-0.414Lyon OU

Bonus points for Top14 are different than most rugby unions:
1 bonus point for winning while scoring at least 3 more tries than the opponent.
1 bonus point for losing by 5 points (or less).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 5/9
Bordeaux-Bègles 26 Oyonnax 23
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse-1.3
-1.3
Paris-0.2
-0.2
+0.1
Oyonnax-18.7
-18.7
-1.0
Montpellier+2.3
+2.3
+0.5
Bordeaux-Bègles+14.6
+14.6
-4.3
+1.1
La Rochelle+0.8
+0.8
+0.4
Grenoble+0.6
+0.6
+0.9
Brive+0.7
+0.7
+0.7
Bayonne+1.1
+1.1
+1.7
Montpellier 33 Bayonne 16
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse-0.7
-0.7
Clermont-0.5
-0.5
Paris-2.1
-2.1
Racing Métro 92-2.1
-2.1
Oyonnax-2.7
-2.7
*No
Montpellier+13.0
+13.0
No
+1.3
Bordeaux-Bègles-1.2
-1.2
+0.5
La Rochelle-0.9
-0.9
-0.6
Grenoble-0.2
-0.2
-3.5
Brive-0.3
-0.3
-3.0
Castres-0.4
-0.4
-7.9
BayonneOut
No
+18.7
-1.1
Lyon-0.1
Toulouse 67 Brive 19
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ToulouseIn
Yes
+0.8
Clermont-0.2
Paris-0.2
Racing Métro 92-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
Oyonnax-1.1
-1.1
Montpellier+0.2
+0.2
-1.0
+0.1
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.2
-0.2
-1.2
La Rochelle-2.1
+0.2
Grenoble+0.2
+0.2
-1.4
+0.2
BriveOut
No
+10.7
-0.9
Castres-1.4
Bayonne+0.2
+0.2
-3.6
+0.2
Toulon 37 Castres 21
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.3
Racing Métro 92+0.2
+0.2
Montpellier+0.3
+0.3
-1.7
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.2
-0.2
-2.0
La Rochelle+0.2
+0.2
-2.4
+0.1
Grenoble-3.8
+0.2
Brive-1.6
CastresOut
No
+15.2
-0.8
Bayonne+0.2
+0.2
-3.6
+0.2
Lyon-0.1
Racing Métro 92 vs ParisIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris87.798.3In
87.798.3Yes
4.93.73.2
Racing Métro 9296.388.068.6
96.388.068.6
4.15.06.0
Montpellier30.030.135.3
30.030.135.3
7.27.27.1
Bordeaux-Bègles23.722.729.0
23.722.729.0
7.77.87.5
La Rochelle8.18.311.1
8.18.311.1
9.39.39.2
Lyon vs La RochelleHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9284.984.280.4
84.984.280.4
4.95.05.1
Oyonnax57.156.951.2
57.156.951.2
6.36.36.5
Montpellier34.431.830.7
34.431.830.7
7.07.27.3
La Rochelle0.85.718.7
0.85.718.7
10.41.4No
10.39.38.3
Bayonne38.843.143.2
11.711.811.9
Lyon98.8YesYes
13.914.014.0
Grenoble vs ClermontHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Clermont97.5InIn
97.5YesYes
3.63.22.3
Grenoble4.00.5Out
4.00.5No
0.67.216.2
9.210.211.0
Brive21.520.815.8
11.111.110.8
Bayonne44.039.838.3
11.911.711.6
Week of 5/16
Oyonnax vs LyonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris92.495.095.6
92.495.095.6
4.13.93.9
Racing Métro 9279.080.386.7
79.080.386.7
5.15.14.9
Oyonnax79.747.129.6
79.747.129.6
5.56.67.3
Montpellier24.231.341.0
24.231.341.0
7.47.27.0
Bordeaux-Bègles18.937.032.3
18.937.032.3
7.97.47.5
La Rochelle7.28.112.0
7.28.112.0
9.49.49.2
LyonYesYes98.8
14.014.013.9
Paris vs MontpellierHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ParisInIn87.5
YesYes87.5
3.33.54.7
Racing Métro 9286.085.179.3
86.085.179.3
Oyonnax60.446.048.9
60.446.048.9
6.36.66.5
Montpellier8.927.956.6
8.927.956.6
8.17.36.2
Bordeaux-Bègles31.329.320.7
31.329.320.7
7.57.57.8
La Rochelle11.110.67.9
11.110.67.9
9.29.29.4
Bordeaux-Bègles vs BayonneHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9278.885.586.4
78.885.586.4
5.14.94.9
Oyonnax45.849.763.2
45.849.763.2
6.66.56.2
Montpellier28.730.836.5
28.730.836.5
7.47.37.0
Bordeaux-Bègles47.226.85.0
47.226.85.0
6.77.48.7
La Rochelle7.411.011.5
7.411.011.5
9.39.19.3
Grenoble1.31.52.6
1.31.52.6
5.010.511.5
10.110.310.1
Brive11.723.725.3
10.811.111.1
Castres15.035.438.9
11.411.711.8
Bayonne64.725.219.1
12.611.711.0
Lyon98.8YesYes
La Rochelle vs Racing Métro 92HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9267.991.196.7
67.991.196.7
5.84.94.2
Oyonnax54.058.054.1
54.058.054.1
6.46.36.4
Montpellier34.829.530.5
34.829.530.5
7.27.37.1
Bordeaux-Bègles28.623.823.9
28.623.823.9
7.77.87.6
La Rochelle19.42.90.3
19.42.90.3
No1.310.4
8.29.310.3
Castres29.028.925.5
11.711.711.5
Bayonne43.243.138.8
11.911.911.6
Grenoble vs ToulouseHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse3.42.62.3
Grenoble4.00.5Out
4.00.5No
0.67.216.2
9.210.211.0
Brive21.520.915.8
11.111.110.8
Castres28.827.125.9
11.711.511.5
Bayonne44.139.738.3
11.911.711.6
Clermont vs ToulonHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulon1.61.21.0
ClermontInIn97.5
YesYes97.5
2.23.33.7
Castres vs BriveHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Grenoble11.111.05.3
10.110.110.2
Brive38.013.5No
12.011.19.9
Castres4.233.449.9
10.711.812.5
Bayonne41.336.741.3
11.811.511.8
LyonYesYes98.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Anonymous for adding this league.