Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsEuropean Rugby Champions Cup BerthChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated to ProD2
SaturdayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567891011121314Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
ToulonWCastres 37-217015-0-9189InYes8312401.2+0.16No2.609RC Toulonnais
ToulouseWBrive 67-196515-0-989In+0.9Yes+0.97492912302.6+0.35No1.609Stade Toulousain
Clermontat Grenoble62113-1-913199.5%-0.199.5%-0.1925292593003.1-0.13No4.574ASM Clermont Auvergne
Paris61113-1-9994.7-1.194.7-1.11822282784104.2+0.05No5.574at Racing Métro 92Stade Français Paris
Racing Métro 9258112-2-92094.0-0.094.0-0.061529331032104.5+0.04No3.556ParisRacing Métro 92
OyonnaxLBordeaux-Bègles 23-265713-0-111866.0-16.066.0-16.00041646219406.3-0.77No6.536Oyonnax Rugby
MontpellierWBayonne 33-165511-2-114719.5+8.219.5+8.201711342316717.5+0.75No-1.48.500Montpellier Hérault Rugby
Bordeaux-BèglesWOyonnax 26-235511-0-1311616.8+6.816.8+6.8004132134169307.9+0.73No-2.19.464Union Bordeaux Bègles
La Rochelleat Lyon50110-3-10-1078.4+1.98.4+1.9027815272010749.2+0.023.8%-1.77.500Atlantique Stade Rochelais
GrenobleClermont48110-0-13-1051.1+0.21.1+0.20171018222311710.07.4-2.411.444FC Grenoble
BriveLToulouse 19-674811-0-13-124Out-0.4No-0.40392325182011.1-0.4520.3+2.710.464CA Brive
CastresLToulon 21-374710-0-14-92Out-0.1No-0.10412273324111.6-0.1924.1-2.312.428Castres Olympique
BayonneLMontpellier 16-33479-1-14-41Out-0.4No-0.4366112944111.9-0.5544.6+7.313.409Aviron Bayonnais
LyonLa Rochelle3517-0-16-150OutNo019914.099.8-0.114.333Lyon OU

Bonus points for Top14 are different than most rugby unions:
1 bonus point for winning while scoring at least 3 more tries than the opponent.
1 bonus point for losing by 5 points (or less).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 5/9
Bordeaux-Bègles 26 Oyonnax 23
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse-0.4
-0.4
Paris+0.1
Racing Métro 92+0.3
+0.3
Oyonnax-13.9
-13.9
-0.7
Montpellier+2.3
+2.3
Bordeaux-Bègles+8.7
+8.7
-2.0
+0.8
La Rochelle+2.1
+2.1
Grenoble+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
-0.1
Brive+0.4
Bayonne+0.2
+0.2
+1.1
Montpellier 33 Bayonne 16
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris-1.1
-1.1
Racing Métro 92-0.5
-0.5
Oyonnax-1.0
-1.0
Montpellier+4.1
+4.1
No
+0.7
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.6
-0.6
+0.3
-0.1
La Rochelle-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Grenoble-1.5
Brive-2.3
Castres-5.9
BayonneOut
No
+11.0
-0.6
Lyon-0.1
Toulouse 67 Brive 19
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ToulouseIn
Yes
+0.3
Clermont-0.1
Paris-0.1
Racing Métro 92-0.1
Oyonnax-0.4
-0.4
Montpellier-0.2
+0.1
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.3
+0.1
La Rochelle-0.8
+0.1
Grenoble-0.3
+0.1
BriveOut
No
+5.0
-0.4
Castres-1.0
+0.1
Bayonne-2.3
+0.1
Toulon 37 Castres 21
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.2
Toulouse-0.1
Clermont-0.1
Montpellier-0.5
Bordeaux-Bègles-0.6
La Rochelle-0.6
+0.1
Grenoble-1.2
+0.1
Brive-0.8
+0.1
CastresOut
No
+5.4
-0.3
Bayonne-1.7
+0.1
Racing Métro 92 vs ParisIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris92.198.8In
92.198.8Yes
4.73.63.1
Racing Métro 9299.194.782.2
99.194.782.2
4.04.85.6
Montpellier18.518.522.0
18.518.522.0
Bordeaux-Bègles15.915.619.2
15.915.619.2
7.97.97.8
Lyon vs La RochelleHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Oyonnax70.870.760.8
70.870.760.8
6.26.26.4
Montpellier20.619.218.4
20.619.218.4
7.37.67.7
La Rochelle0.22.917.0
0.22.917.0
8.10.5No
10.19.18.2
Grenoble9.910.010.2
Bayonne42.046.947.0
11.812.012.0
Lyon99.6YesYes
Grenoble vs ClermontHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse2.42.52.8
Clermont99.0InIn
99.0YesYes
3.73.42.4
Paris4.04.14.4
Grenoble2.10.2Out
2.10.2No
0.36.415.6
9.210.211.0
Brive23.122.416.8
11.211.210.9
Castres25.1*24.022.9
11.711.611.5
Bayonne47.443.141.6
12.011.911.8
Week of 5/16
Oyonnax vs LyonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Paris94.097.497.7
94.097.497.7
4.24.14.1
Racing Métro 9293.694.396.3
93.694.396.3
4.54.54.4
Oyonnax76.028.917.8
76.028.917.8
6.07.17.7
Montpellier15.723.641.0
15.723.641.0
7.67.47.1
Bordeaux-Bègles13.342.229.2
13.342.229.2
8.07.37.4
La Rochelle7.69.412.9
7.69.412.9
9.29.28.9
Grenoble0.24.75.2
0.24.75.2
10.110.010.0
LyonYesYes98.4
14.014.013.9
Paris vs MontpellierHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ParisInIn77.3
YesYes77.3
3.84.05.3
Racing Métro 9295.194.490.6
95.194.490.6
4.54.54.4
Oyonnax71.145.354.7
71.145.354.7
6.26.66.3
Montpellier5.134.360.7
5.134.360.7
8.07.26.1
Bordeaux-Bègles18.716.911.1
18.716.911.1
7.87.98.1
La Rochelle9.08.66.6
9.08.66.6
9.19.29.3
Bordeaux-Bègles vs BayonneHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Oyonnax62.666.575.4
62.666.575.4
6.36.36.1
Montpellier18.620.321.7
18.620.321.7
7.67.57.2
Bordeaux-Bègles22.812.11.2
22.812.11.2
7.37.99.3
Grenoble5.810.511.2
10.010.210.0
Brive16.428.229.5
11.011.311.3
Castres16.838.341.6
11.511.911.9
Bayonne57.619.013.7
12.511.410.5
Lyon99.7YesYes
La Rochelle vs Racing Métro 92HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Racing Métro 9290.398.299.6
90.398.299.6
5.04.43.7
Oyonnax63.470.769.6
63.470.769.6
6.36.26.3
La Rochelle13.91.60.1
13.91.60.1
No0.610.6
8.59.310.4
Grenoble10.29.99.8
Bayonne47.047.040.5
12.012.011.7
Grenoble vs ToulouseHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
Toulouse3.12.32.1
Clermont2.93.23.3
La Rochelle4.34.33.3
9.39.39.0
Grenoble2.30.2Out
2.30.2No
0.36.014.7
9.210.110.9
Brive23.122.617.2
11.211.210.9
Bayonne47.443.442.0
12.011.911.8
Clermont vs ToulonHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
ClermontInIn98.4
YesYes98.4
2.73.74.0
Paris4.34.04.0
Castres vs BriveHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*European Rugby Champions Cup Berth100.0*Relegated to ProD2100.0*Average seed
La Rochelle4.92.21.7
9.19.29.3
Grenoble9.79.02.4
10.010.010.2
Brive30.95.4No
11.710.89.8
Castres5.246.060.7
11.112.212.6
Bayonne49.337.435.9
12.011.611.9
LyonYesYes99.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Anonymous for adding this league.