"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Treviso vs Edinburgh+4.1-5.6-6.9
+7.2-9.2-12.2
+0.2-0.2-0.4
Scarlets vs Blues-0.7+2.0+2.2
+0.0+0.9-0.2
Ulster vs Leinster-0.1+2.0-0.1
-0.0+0.7*+0.0
Ospreys vs Dragons+0.6+0.5-0.8
+0.9+1.7-1.3
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Glasgow vs Kings+0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Zebre vs Cheetahs-0.6+2.3+0.5
Connacht vs Munster-0.1+0.6+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Treviso finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-LplayoffsERCC1234567Count
6815-0-0InYes1000175,063
6614-1-0InYes9915,660
6414-0-1InYes973073,371*
6213-1-1100.0%Yes901000107,886*
6013-0-2100.0Yes851410713,232*
5812-1-299.9Yes653130922,515*
5612-0-399.8Yes57376004,120,350*
5411-1-398.1100.0%314819204,699,428*
5211-0-497.4100.02648233013,126,620
10-2-389.2100.010394011002,623,693*
5010-1-486.0100.083543140014,925,050
9-3-365.598.7218463220894,057*
4810-0-581.999.963146180034,488,498
9-2-458.897.811444383007,842,856*
469-1-553.197.011142424034,997,513
8-3-427.181.703245715102,357,603*
449-0-646.895.608384760066,374,698
8-2-522.075.9022058191016,307,396*
428-1-618.171.1011758222059,570,320
7-3-55.434.00054740804,276,222*
408-0-714.464.9011458252095,329,627
7-2-64.028.200444439023,553,656
6-4-50.65.8012451240734,400*
387-1-72.922.7003404511074,774,674
6-3-60.44.00021502815,472,237*
367-0-82.117.90023748140103,113,501
6-2-70.32.800185031125,455,382
5-4-60.00.10638523791,696*
346-1-80.21.900154935169,667,800
5-3-70.00.105355544,988,382*
326-0-90.11.200134838184,118,266
5-2-80.00.0043358520,011,842
4-4-70.00.001166915592,709*
305-1-90.00.0033061647,960,399
4-3-80.00.0011469173,213,877*
285-0-100.00.0022763751,371,010
4-2-90.00.00012691911,615,493*
264-1-100.00.00010692124,049,862
3-3-9OutNo0358391,429,454*
244-0-110.0No008682323,076,649
3-2-10OutNo0255424,573,027*
223-1-110.0No00252468,939,688*
203-0-12OutNo0151487,391,146
2-2-11OutNo032681,191,426*
182-1-12OutNo0029712,093,388*
162-0-13OutNo026741,780,905*
141-1-13OutNo01288292,198*
121-0-14OutNo01090221,631*
100-1-14OutNo39718,386
80-0-15OutNo199183,978
Total:16.2%35.9%14112828244966,608,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs