Ospreys Playoff Chances 2017-18

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.9 to 3.5%

5 points 1-0-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	ERCC	100.0*	Average seed
Ospreys vs Dragons	+1.5-1.6-1.7		+3.1-2.8-3.6		+0.2-0.2-0.2
Zebre vs Cheetahs	+0.4+1.2-0.6		-0.1+0.8+0.1		-0.0+0.1+0.0
Connacht vs Munster	+0.2+0.3-0.1		-0.0+0.2-0.0		-0.1+0.1+0.1
Scarlets vs Blues	+0.1+0.0-0.2		-0.0+0.3-0.0		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Glasgow vs Kings	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Treviso vs Edinburgh			-0.1+0.9+0.1
Ulster vs Leinster			-0.0+0.2+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Ospreys finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		ERCC		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Count

64		15	-	0	-	0	In		Yes		92	8	0					171,890
62		14	-	1	-	0	In		Yes		67	32	1					304
60		14	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		62	36	2					4,765	*
58		13	-	1	-	1	99.8	%	Yes		37	52	10	0				8,435	*
56		13	-	0	-	2	99.5		Yes		32	54	14	1				65,261	*
54		12	-	1	-	2	97.4		100.0	%	13	54	31	3	0			103,945	*
52		12	-	0	-	3	95.8		100.0		10	50	36	4	0			539,509	*
50		11	-	1	-	3	86.6		99.9		3	32	52	13	0			762,828	*
48		11	-	0	-	4	85.4		99.9		2	30	53	14	0			2,469,242	*
		10	-	2	-	3	65.8		97.7		0	13	52	32	2	0		530,076	*
46		10	-	1	-	4	61.6		96.0		0	11	50	36	3	0		3,731,828	*
44		10	-	0	-	5	59.6		95.8		0	10	50	37	3	0		9,452,283
		9	-	2	-	4	34.4		74.9		0	3	32	54	11	0	0	2,303,823	*
42		9	-	1	-	5	31.7		70.9		0	2	30	55	13	0	0	11,992,996
		8	-	3	-	4	12.6		31.1		0	0	12	56	30	2	0	859,470	*
40		9	-	0	-	6	28.5		65.4		0	2	27	56	15	0	0	26,673,709
		8	-	2	-	5	10.7		25.8		0	0	11	54	33	2	0	6,971,492	*
38		8	-	1	-	6	9.3		21.8		0	0	9	52	36	3	0	29,844,914
		7	-	3	-	5	2.0		3.1			0	2	33	53	12	1	2,268,031	*
36		8	-	0	-	7	7.8		17.7		0	0	8	49	39	4	0	56,250,036
		7	-	2	-	6	1.6		2.2			0	2	29	54	15	1	15,154,228	*
34		7	-	1	-	7	1.2		1.6			0	1	26	54	17	1	54,857,889
		6	-	3	-	6	0.1		0.0				0	9	49	36	6	4,220,085	*
32		7	-	0	-	8	0.9		1.1			0	1	23	55	20	2	89,302,826
		6	-	2	-	7	0.1		0.0			0	0	8	46	39	7	23,088,900
		5	-	4	-	6	0.0		No				0	2	26	51	22	752,113	*
30		6	-	1	-	8	0.1		0.0			0	0	6	42	42	9	74,615,794
		5	-	3	-	7	0.0		0.0				0	1	23	51	25	5,578,647	*
28		6	-	0	-	9	0.0		0.0				0	5	39	45	12	106,535,703
		5	-	2	-	8	0.0		0.0				0	1	19	51	29	26,350,070
		4	-	4	-	7	0.0		No				0	0	7	41	53	812,777	*
26		5	-	1	-	9	0.0		0.0				0	1	16	50	34	74,622,163
		4	-	3	-	8	Out		No					0	5	38	57	5,179,965	*
24		5	-	0	-	10	0.0		0.0				0	0	13	48	38	94,476,746
		4	-	2	-	9	Out		No					0	4	34	62	21,471,259
		3	-	4	-	8	Out		No					0	1	18	81	589,523	*
22		4	-	1	-	10	Out		No					0	3	31	66	53,869,225
		3	-	3	-	9	Out		No					0	0	15	84	3,292,908	*
20		4	-	0	-	11	Out		No					0	2	27	71	61,046,797
		3	-	2	-	10	Out		No					0	0	13	87	12,390,207	*
18		3	-	1	-	11	Out		No					0	0	10	89	27,190,510
		2	-	3	-	10	Out		No						0	3	97	1,355,629	*
16		3	-	0	-	12	Out		No						0	8	92	27,750,259
		2	-	2	-	11	Out		No						0	3	97	4,549,826	*
14		2	-	1	-	12	Out		No						0	2	98	9,364,921	*
12		2	-	0	-	13	Out		No						0	1	99	8,367,583
		1	-	2	-	12	Out		No						0	0	100	977,630	*
10		1	-	1	-	13	Out		No							0	100	1,806,445	*
8		1	-	0	-	14	Out		No							0	100	1,587,886	*
4	-6						Out		No								100	445,369	*

Total:							3.5	%	6.8	%	0	0	3	13	26	28	29	966,608,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ospreys vs Dragons	-0.5+0.4+0.6
Connacht vs Munster	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Scarlets vs Blues	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Glasgow vs Kings	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Treviso vs Edinburgh	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Zebre vs Cheetahs	+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

64	15	-	0	-	0	91	9	0
62	14	-	1	-	0	61	34	5
60	14	-	0	-	1	53	40	7	0	0
58	13	-	1	-	1	23	47	25	4	0
56	13	-	0	-	2	18	44	30	8	1	0
54	12	-	1	-	2	4	23	39	26	7	1	0	0
52	12	-	0	-	3	2	17	36	30	12	2	0	0
50	11	-	1	-	3	0	3	17	34	31	13	2	0	0	0
48	11	-	0	-	4	0	2	12	30	33	18	5	0	0	0
46	10	-	1	-	4	0	0	1	10	29	36	19	4	0	0	0	0
44	10	-	0	-	5	0	0	1	8	27	38	21	4	0	0
	9	-	2	-	4		0	0	1	8	27	39	21	4	0	0	0
42	9	-	1	-	5		0	0	1	6	25	40	23	5	0	0	0
	8	-	3	-	4				0	0	5	25	39	23	6	1	0	0
40	9	-	0	-	6		0	0	0	4	21	39	27	7	1	0	0
	8	-	2	-	5			0	0	0	4	22	38	27	8	1	0	0
38	8	-	1	-	6				0	0	3	19	38	29	10	1	0	0
	7	-	3	-	5					0	0	3	18	36	30	11	1	0	0
36	8	-	0	-	7				0	0	2	15	36	32	12	2	0	0
	7	-	2	-	6					0	0	2	14	34	33	14	2	0	0
34	7	-	1	-	7					0	0	2	12	32	35	17	3	0	0
	6	-	3	-	6						0	0	1	11	31	37	17	3	0
32	7	-	0	-	8					0	0	1	9	29	36	20	4	0	0
	6	-	2	-	7						0	0	1	9	28	38	20	4	0
	5	-	4	-	6								0	1	9	31	40	18	2
30	6	-	1	-	8						0	0	1	7	25	39	24	5	0
	5	-	3	-	7							0	0	1	7	27	41	21	3
28	6	-	0	-	9						0	0	0	5	21	38	28	7	0
	5	-	2	-	8							0	0	0	5	24	42	25	4
	4	-	4	-	7									0	0	7	32	46	15
26	5	-	1	-	9							0	0	0	4	20	42	29	5
	4	-	3	-	8									0	0	5	28	48	18
24	5	-	0	-	10							0	0	0	3	17	41	33	6
	4	-	2	-	9									0	0	4	25	50	21
	3	-	4	-	8										0	0	9	45	45
22	4	-	1	-	10									0	0	3	22	51	25
	3	-	3	-	9										0	0	7	43	49
20	4	-	0	-	11									0	0	2	18	51	28
	3	-	2	-	10										0	0	5	41	54
18	3	-	1	-	11									0	0	0	4	39	57
	2	-	3	-	10											0	1	21	78
16	3	-	0	-	12										0	0	3	36	61
	2	-	2	-	11											0	0	19	81
14	2	-	1	-	12											0	0	16	84
12	2	-	0	-	13											0	0	14	86
	1	-	2	-	12												0	5	95
10	1	-	1	-	13												0	4	96
8	1	-	0	-	14												0	3	97
6	0	-	1	-	14													0	100
4	0	-	0	-	15													0	100

Total:						0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	13	16	18	18	12