Southern Kings Playoff Chances 2017-18

Lost to Dragons 13-29, playoff odds down 0.3 to 0.1%

0 points 0-0-5

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	ERCC	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow vs Kings	-0.1-0.1+0.4		-0.2-0.1+1.1		-0.0-0.0+0.2
Treviso vs Edinburgh			-0.0+0.1+0.0
Ospreys vs Dragons			+0.0+0.1-0.0
Zebre vs Cheetahs			-0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Kings finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		ERCC		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Count

60		15	-	0	-	0	In		Yes		97	3	0					171,749
58		14	-	1	-	0	In		Yes		82	18						17
56		14	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		70	26	4					255	*
54		13	-	1	-	1	98.8	%	Yes		39	47	12	1				683	*
52		13	-	0	-	2	97.9		Yes		33	46	18	2	0			5,626	*
50		12	-	1	-	2	89.3		100.0	%	11	40	38	10	0	0		11,122	*
48		12	-	0	-	3	83.9		99.8		8	35	41	15	1	0		65,580	*
46		11	-	1	-	3	58.5		97.7		1	14	43	36	5	0	0	113,130	*
44		11	-	0	-	4	49.1		94.2		1	11	38	42	9	1	0	501,790	*
42		10	-	1	-	4	20.2		73.2		0	2	18	51	25	4	0	756,488	*
40		10	-	0	-	5	17.7		70.6		0	1	16	51	27	4	0	2,120,251
		9	-	2	-	4	4.0		28.1		0	0	4	34	44	16	2	574,771	*
38		9	-	1	-	5	3.1		23.5		0	0	3	31	46	18	2	3,312,927
		8	-	3	-	4	0.3		3.0			0	0	12	41	38	10	262,931	*
36		9	-	0	-	6	2.3		18.9		0	0	2	28	46	21	3	8,184,010
		8	-	2	-	5	0.2		2.0			0	0	10	38	40	12	2,376,371	*
34		8	-	1	-	6	0.1		1.5			0	0	8	36	42	13	11,285,786
		7	-	3	-	5	0.0		0.0				0	2	17	47	34	949,878	*
32		8	-	0	-	7	0.1		1.0			0	0	7	33	44	16	23,718,912
		7	-	2	-	6	0.0		0.0				0	1	15	47	37	6,828,073
		6	-	4	-	5	Out		No					0	4	34	62	247,805	*
30		7	-	1	-	7	0.0		0.0				0	1	13	45	41	28,526,504
		6	-	3	-	6	Out		No					0	3	31	66	2,423,022	*
28		7	-	0	-	8	0.0		0.0				0	1	11	43	45	51,996,934
		6	-	2	-	7	Out		No					0	3	28	69	14,830,960
		5	-	4	-	6	Out		No					0	0	13	86	533,038	*
26		6	-	1	-	8	0.0		No				0	0	2	26	72	53,767,076
		5	-	3	-	7	Out		No					0	0	12	88	4,427,842	*
24		6	-	0	-	9	Out		0.0					0	2	23	75	86,393,894
		5	-	2	-	8	Out		No					0	0	10	90	23,552,368
		4	-	4	-	7	Out		No						0	3	97	800,049	*
22		5	-	1	-	9	Out		No					0	0	9	91	75,253,312
		4	-	3	-	8	Out		No						0	3	97	5,756,915	*
20		5	-	0	-	10	Out		No					0	0	7	93	107,922,002
		4	-	2	-	9	Out		No					0	0	2	98	27,001,669
		3	-	4	-	8	Out		No							0	100	813,282	*
18		4	-	1	-	10	Out		No					0	0	2	98	77,023,197
		3	-	3	-	9	Out		No						0	0	100	5,178,809	*
16		4	-	0	-	11	Out		No					0	0	1	99	99,591,267
		3	-	2	-	10	Out		No						0	0	100	21,758,894
		2	-	4	-	9	Out		No							0	100	540,572	*
14		3	-	1	-	11	Out		No						0	0	100	55,957,982
		2	-	3	-	10	Out		No							0	100	3,068,893	*
12		3	-	0	-	12	Out		No						0	0	100	65,780,639
		2	-	2	-	11	Out		No							0	100	11,879,575	*
10		2	-	1	-	12	Out		No							0	100	27,285,668
		1	-	3	-	11	Out		No								100	1,076,463	*
8		2	-	0	-	13	Out		No							0	100	29,367,938
		1	-	2	-	12	Out		No								100	3,771,367	*
0	-6						Out		No								100	18,840,434	*

Total:							0.1	%	0.6	%	0	0	0	1	3	12	83	966,608,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27	100.0*	Lottery seed
Glasgow vs Kings	+0.1+0.1-0.6
Connacht vs Munster	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Ospreys vs Dragons	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Scarlets vs Blues	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

60		15	-	0	-	0	76	23	1	0
58		14	-	1	-	0	18	41	41
56		14	-	0	-	1	24	48	24	4	0
54		13	-	1	-	1	5	31	41	18	4	0
52		13	-	0	-	2	3	24	39	26	7	1	0
50		12	-	1	-	2	0	5	22	38	27	7	1	0
48		12	-	0	-	3	0	3	17	35	31	12	2	0	0
46		11	-	1	-	3		0	2	15	34	33	13	2	0	0
44		11	-	0	-	4	0	0	1	10	29	35	19	5	1	0	0
42		10	-	1	-	4		0	0	1	8	28	37	21	5	1	0	0
40		10	-	0	-	5		0	0	1	6	25	38	23	6	1	0	0
		9	-	2	-	4				0	0	5	22	36	26	8	1	0	0	0
38		9	-	1	-	5				0	0	4	18	35	29	12	2	0	0	0
36		9	-	0	-	6				0	0	3	16	35	32	13	2	0	0
		8	-	2	-	5					0	0	2	12	30	33	17	4	0	0
34		8	-	1	-	6					0	0	1	10	28	35	20	5	0	0
		7	-	3	-	5						0	0	1	7	24	36	25	7	1
32		8	-	0	-	7					0	0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0
		7	-	2	-	6						0	0	1	5	21	35	28	9	1
30		7	-	1	-	7						0	0	0	4	18	35	30	11	1
		6	-	3	-	6								0	0	3	16	37	34	10
28		7	-	0	-	8						0	0	0	3	16	34	33	13	2
		6	-	2	-	7								0	0	2	14	35	36	12
26		6	-	1	-	8								0	0	2	12	34	39	14
		5	-	3	-	7									0	0	2	14	44	40
24		6	-	0	-	9							0	0	0	1	10	32	41	16
		5	-	2	-	8								0	0	0	1	13	43	43
		4	-	4	-	7										0	0	2	26	72
22		5	-	1	-	9								0	0	0	1	11	42	46
		4	-	3	-	8										0	0	2	24	75
20		5	-	0	-	10									0	0	1	9	40	50
		4	-	2	-	9										0	0	2	22	77
		3	-	4	-	8											0	0	8	92
18		4	-	1	-	10										0	0	1	20	79
		3	-	3	-	9											0	0	7	93
16		4	-	0	-	11										0	0	1	18	81
		3	-	2	-	10											0	0	6	94
		2	-	4	-	9												0	1	99
14		3	-	1	-	11											0	0	5	95
		2	-	3	-	10												0	1	99
12		3	-	0	-	12											0	0	4	95
		2	-	2	-	11												0	1	99
10		2	-	1	-	12												0	1	99
		1	-	3	-	11													0	100
8		2	-	0	-	13												0	1	99
		1	-	2	-	12													0	100
6		1	-	1	-	13													0	100
4		1	-	0	-	14													0	100
		0	-	2	-	13														100
0	-2																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	11	22	55