Edinburgh Playoff Chances 2017-18

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.2 to 8.5%

10 points 2-0-3

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	ERCC	100.0*	Average seed
Treviso vs Edinburgh	-2.9-1.8+5.8		-5.9-3.3+11.5		-0.2-0.1+0.4
Scarlets vs Blues	-0.4+1.1+1.3		-0.0+0.7-0.1
Ulster vs Leinster	-0.2+1.4+0.1		-0.1+0.6+0.1
Ospreys vs Dragons	+0.4+0.4-0.5		+0.6+1.2-0.9		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Glasgow vs Kings			-0.0+0.1+0.0		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Zebre vs Cheetahs			-0.3+1.8+0.2
Connacht vs Munster			-0.0+0.5-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Edinburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		ERCC		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Count

68	15	-	0	-	0	In		Yes		100	0						172,209
66	14	-	1	-	0	In		Yes		97	3						926
64	14	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		97	3	0					12,337	*
62	13	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		89	11	0					21,275	*
60	13	-	0	-	2	100.0	%	Yes		85	15	1	0				154,291	*
58	12	-	1	-	2	99.9		Yes		64	32	4	0				230,208	*
56	12	-	0	-	3	99.7		Yes		58	36	6	0	0			1,131,990	*
54	11	-	1	-	3	97.9		100.0	%	31	48	19	2	0	0		1,474,531	*
52	11	-	0	-	4	97.6		100.0		28	48	21	2	0			4,550,143	*
	10	-	2	-	3	88.5		99.9		10	39	40	11	0	0		944,757	*
50	10	-	1	-	4	85.0		99.8		8	35	42	14	1	0		6,320,980	*
48	10	-	0	-	5	83.4		99.9		7	33	44	16	1	0		15,282,785
	9	-	2	-	4	57.9		97.2		1	14	43	37	5	0		3,606,303	*
46	9	-	1	-	5	53.8		96.5		1	12	41	41	6	0	0	17,881,286
	8	-	3	-	4	25.0		78.2		0	2	23	55	19	1	0	1,245,105	*
44	9	-	0	-	6	48.8		95.2		1	10	39	44	7	0		37,791,277
	8	-	2	-	5	21.1		73.0		0	2	19	55	22	2	0	9,598,516	*
42	8	-	1	-	6	18.2		69.2		0	1	17	54	25	2	0	39,113,802
	7	-	3	-	5	4.6		29.3		0	0	4	41	44	10	0	2,894,972	*
40	8	-	0	-	7	15.3		64.2		0	1	14	53	28	3	0	70,016,089
	7	-	2	-	6	3.6		24.7		0	0	3	38	47	12	0	18,382,437	*
38	7	-	1	-	7	2.8		21.3		0	0	3	35	48	14	0	63,327,953
	6	-	3	-	6	0.3		2.9			0	0	16	51	32	1	4,756,992	*
36	7	-	0	-	8	2.1		17.8		0	0	2	32	50	16	0	97,988,491
	6	-	2	-	7	0.2		2.2			0	0	14	50	35	1	24,783,211
	5	-	4	-	6	0.0		0.1				0	4	36	57	3	789,248	*
34	6	-	1	-	8	0.2		1.7			0	0	12	48	39	1	76,180,045
	5	-	3	-	7	0.0		0.0				0	3	33	60	4	5,580,497	*
32	6	-	0	-	9	0.1		1.2			0	0	10	46	42	1	103,465,933
	5	-	2	-	8	0.0		0.0				0	3	31	62	5	25,120,994
	4	-	4	-	7	0.0		0.0				0	0	14	72	14	759,374	*
30	5	-	1	-	9	0.0		0.0				0	2	28	64	6	67,689,311
	4	-	3	-	8	0.0		0.0				0	0	12	71	16	4,616,583	*
28	5	-	0	-	10	0.0		0.0				0	2	25	66	7	81,613,866
	4	-	2	-	9	0.0		0.0				0	0	10	70	19	18,748,900	*
26	4	-	1	-	10	0.0		0.0				0	0	9	70	21	43,668,618
	3	-	3	-	9	Out		No					0	2	59	39	2,628,849	*
24	4	-	0	-	11	Out		0.0					0	8	68	24	47,164,048
	3	-	2	-	10	Out		No					0	2	55	43	9,447,293	*
22	3	-	1	-	11	Out		No					0	2	52	47	19,782,137
	2	-	3	-	10	Out		No						0	34	66	976,818	*
20	3	-	0	-	12	Out		No					0	1	48	51	19,282,158
	2	-	2	-	11	Out		No					0	0	30	70	3,129,880	*
18	2	-	1	-	12	Out		No					0	0	26	74	6,145,793	*
16	2	-	0	-	13	Out		No					0	0	22	78	5,244,601
	1	-	2	-	12	Out		No						0	10	90	607,243	*
14	1	-	1	-	13	Out		No						0	8	92	1,071,822	*
12	1	-	0	-	14	Out		No						0	6	94	897,125	*
10	0	-	1	-	14	Out		No							1	99	82,278
8	0	-	0	-	15	Out		No							0	100	232,440

Total:						8.5	%	21.4	%	1	2	6	19	29	35	8	966,608,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27	100.0*	Lottery seed
Treviso vs Edinburgh	+0.4+0.2-0.9
Zebre vs Cheetahs	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Scarlets vs Blues	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Ospreys vs Dragons	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Connacht vs Munster	+0.1-0.1-0.0
Glasgow vs Kings	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

68	15	-	0	-	0	100	0
66	14	-	1	-	0	94	6
64	14	-	0	-	1	90	9	0
62	13	-	1	-	1	71	26	2	0
60	13	-	0	-	2	62	32	5	0	0
58	12	-	1	-	2	31	45	20	4	0	0
56	12	-	0	-	3	22	43	26	7	1	0	0
54	11	-	1	-	3	5	24	38	25	7	1	0	0
52	11	-	0	-	4	3	21	38	28	9	1	0	0
	10	-	2	-	3	0	5	21	36	28	9	1	0	0
50	10	-	1	-	4	0	3	16	34	31	13	2	0	0	0
48	10	-	0	-	5	0	2	14	33	34	15	3	0	0
	9	-	2	-	4	0	0	2	12	32	35	16	3	0	0	0
46	9	-	1	-	5	0	0	1	10	29	37	19	3	0	0
	8	-	3	-	4		0	0	1	9	29	39	18	3	0	0
44	9	-	0	-	6	0	0	1	8	26	38	23	5	0	0	0
	8	-	2	-	5		0	0	1	7	26	40	22	5	0	0	0
42	8	-	1	-	6		0	0	0	5	23	40	25	5	0	0	0
	7	-	3	-	5			0	0	0	5	24	40	24	6	1	0	0
40	8	-	0	-	7		0	0	0	4	20	40	28	7	1	0	0
	7	-	2	-	6			0	0	0	4	21	39	28	8	1	0	0	0
38	7	-	1	-	7				0	0	3	18	39	30	9	1	0	0
	6	-	3	-	6					0	0	3	18	38	30	10	1	0	0
36	7	-	0	-	8			0	0	0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0	0
	6	-	2	-	7				0	0	0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0	0
	5	-	4	-	6							0	2	15	36	34	12	2	0
34	6	-	1	-	8					0	0	2	13	34	35	14	2	0	0
	5	-	3	-	7						0	0	2	12	34	36	15	2	0
32	6	-	0	-	9					0	0	1	11	32	36	16	3	0	0
	5	-	2	-	8						0	0	1	10	32	37	17	3	0
	4	-	4	-	7							0	0	1	10	33	39	16	2
30	5	-	1	-	9						0	0	1	9	29	38	20	4	0
	4	-	3	-	8							0	0	1	8	30	40	19	2
28	5	-	0	-	10						0	0	1	7	26	39	22	5	0
	4	-	2	-	9							0	0	1	7	27	40	22	3
26	4	-	1	-	10							0	0	0	5	25	41	24	4
	3	-	3	-	9									0	0	7	30	45	18
24	4	-	0	-	11							0	0	0	4	22	41	28	5
	3	-	2	-	10									0	0	5	27	46	21
22	3	-	1	-	11								0	0	0	4	24	47	24
	2	-	3	-	10										0	0	8	41	51
20	3	-	0	-	12									0	0	3	21	47	28
	2	-	2	-	11										0	0	6	38	56
18	2	-	1	-	12										0	0	5	34	61
16	2	-	0	-	13										0	0	4	31	65
	1	-	2	-	12											0	0	14	85
14	1	-	1	-	13											0	0	11	88
12	1	-	0	-	14											0	0	9	91
10	0	-	1	-	14												0	1	99
8	0	-	0	-	15												0	0	100

Total:						0	0	1	2	3	6	10	14	16	15	14	10	7	3