"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Scarlets vs Blues-0.9-0.8+3.7
-1.7-1.2+6.7
-0.1-0.1+0.4
Zebre vs Cheetahs+0.4+1.3-0.7
-0.1+0.8+0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Connacht vs Munster+0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.0+0.2+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Ospreys vs Dragons-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.3+0.5-0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Glasgow vs Kings-0.0+0.1+0.1
Treviso vs Edinburgh-0.1+0.9+0.1
Ulster vs Leinster-0.0+0.2+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Blues finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-LplayoffsERCC1234567Count
6415-0-0InYes9370171,943
6214-1-0InYes67321390
6014-0-1InYes613636,032*
5813-1-199.9%Yes375210010,784*
5613-0-299.8Yes315513082,837*
5412-1-298.5Yes14543120129,933*
5212-0-397.2100.0%10513630663,840*
5011-1-389.999.933453100917,244*
4811-0-488.199.9231541202,926,927*
10-2-372.198.0015572710622,300*
4610-1-466.796.401254322004,313,231*
4410-0-563.496.101153342010,798,282
9-2-439.775.60337529002,597,016*
429-1-535.471.2023354100013,343,840
8-3-415.931.50016562620947,729*
409-0-630.765.3022956130029,225,892
8-2-512.825.600135430307,564,911*
388-1-610.521.4001053343031,926,717
7-3-52.73.00334501312,404,944*
368-0-78.217.000850384059,284,849
7-2-61.92.102305116115,847,176*
347-1-71.41.501275318156,575,425
6-3-60.20.00010463764,327,934*
327-0-80.91.001235321290,857,071
6-2-70.10.00084441823,367,605
5-4-60.0No02245123757,110*
306-1-80.10.00641441074,548,582
5-3-70.00.0012152275,549,303*
286-0-90.00.0005374612105,169,628
5-2-80.00.00118523025,946,674
4-4-7OutNo054054796,133*
265-1-90.00.00115513472,694,327
4-3-8OutNo0437585,038,911*
245-0-100.00.00013503791,230,015
4-2-9OutNo03346221,298,515*
224-1-10OutNo03326651,642,135
3-3-9OutNo0015843,154,969*
204-0-11OutNo02296958,216,456
3-2-10OutNo00138611,837,590*
183-1-11OutNo00128825,904,519
2-3-10OutNo04961,298,600*
163-0-12OutNo00109026,436,700
2-2-11OutNo03974,355,940*
142-1-12OutNo02988,995,578*
122-0-13OutNo02988,077,254
1-2-12OutNo0100950,321*
101-1-13OutNo01001,770,334*
81-0-14OutNo01001,572,481*
60-1-14OutNo0100156,690
40-0-15OutNo100295,103
Total:4.2%7.4%00414252928966,608,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/27100.0*Lottery seed
Scarlets vs Blues+0.2+0.2-0.8
Connacht vs Munster+0.1-0.1-0.1
Ospreys vs Dragons+0.0-0.1-0.0
Glasgow vs Kings-0.0-0.0+0.1
Treviso vs Edinburgh-0.0-0.1+0.0
Zebre vs Cheetahs+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314
6415-0-09280
6214-1-0593460
6014-0-15140810
5813-1-1224627500
5613-0-21744308100
5412-1-23223927710
5212-0-3217363112200
5011-1-30317353112200
4811-0-40214343414200
10-2-300214343514200
4610-1-4001103036183000
4410-0-50019283821400
9-2-400182839204000
429-1-500162540235000
8-3-40062538236100
409-0-600042139277100
8-2-50042137279100
388-1-6000318373010100
7-3-500317353112200
368-0-70002153533132000
7-2-600213323415300
347-1-700111303618300
6-3-60011030381930
327-0-80019273721500
6-2-7001827392240
5-4-60172942192
306-1-8001624392550
5-3-700062642233
286-0-9000420392970
5-2-800042343264
4-4-7006314716
265-1-900032042295
4-3-8005284819
245-0-1000021742336
4-2-9003254922
224-1-10003225025
3-3-90074350
204-0-110002195028
3-2-100054054
183-1-1100043857
2-3-10012178
163-0-120033661
2-2-11011881
142-1-12001684
122-0-13001485
1-2-120595
101-1-130496
81-0-140397
60-1-140100
40-0-150100
Total:00001247101316181811