Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsERCCChance will finish regular season at seed
9/30PGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567Avg.ChangeRPIStrength10/27
Glasgow235-0-07199.2%-0.399.6%-0.17123510001.4-0.103.675KingsGlasgow Warriors
MunsterWBlues 39-16194-0-16594.2+4.295.9+4.123512051002.1+0.262.605at ConnachtMunster
UlsterLZebre 23-27194-0-16087.9-7.594.6-3.833312483102.2-0.441.605Ulster
Scarlets214-0-110087.7-0.494.5-0.734302383102.2+0.136.605Scarlets
Leinster194-0-15886.1-0.893.7-1.1302927103102.3+0.117.605Leinster
Cheetahs153-0-2-375.3-3.579.4-1.952149175213.0-0.134.535Cheetahs
ZebreWUlster 27-23102-0-3-2520.7+8.733.8+13.9141640221264.4+0.6011.465Zebre
Treviso92-0-3-4116.2+0.635.9-4.8141128282444.6-0.065.465Benetton Treviso
DragonsWKings 29-1392-0-3-3513.5+7.131.5+10.813926292754.8+0.4912.465at OspreysNewport Gwent Dragons
Edinburgh102-0-3-48.5+1.221.4-1.912619293585.18.465Edinburgh
BluesLMunster 16-3951-0-4-604.2-7.27.4-10.5004142529285.6-0.579.395Cardiff Blues
Ospreys51-0-4-463.5-0.96.8-1.0003132628295.7-0.0110.395DragonsOspreys
Connacht71-0-4-82.8-0.94.9-1.3002102129375.9-0.0513.395MunsterConnacht
KingsLDragons 13-2900-0-5-1320.1-0.30.6-1.50001312836.8-0.2314.325at GlasgowSouthern Kings

Top three teams from each Conference qualify for playoffs. Top seven teams (excluding the South African teams, Cheetahs & Kings) qualify for European Champions Cup.

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 10/27
Zebre vs CheetahsIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow99.199.599.3
Munster93.695.594.8
95.896.496.1
2.12.02.1
Ulster94.595.294.7
Scarlets94.395.094.6
Leinster93.594.393.8
Cheetahs66.674.786.3
72.876.287.9
3.33.12.8
Zebre29.016.410.8
42.626.023.4
4.14.64.7
Treviso35.438.236.4
Dragons31.033.731.9
Edinburgh21.023.221.6
Blues4.75.53.5
7.48.37.5
5.65.55.6
Ospreys3.94.72.9
6.77.66.9
5.75.65.6
Connacht3.13.82.4
4.95.65.0
5.95.85.8
Kings0.60.70.6
Scarlets vs BluesHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Munster94.394.393.7
95.996.195.9
Ulster87.688.888.8
94.694.994.5
2.22.12.1
Scarlets90.181.080.3
96.190.589.3
2.12.52.5
Leinster85.787.087.1
93.793.993.6
2.32.22.2
Cheetahs75.775.773.4
79.480.079.0
Zebre20.920.919.9
33.834.633.5
4.34.34.5
Treviso15.518.118.4
35.936.835.7
Dragons12.915.315.5
31.532.431.3
Edinburgh8.19.69.7
21.422.121.2
Blues3.33.47.9
5.76.314.2
5.75.75.2
Ospreys3.63.63.3
6.87.16.8
5.65.65.8
Connacht2.92.92.6
5.05.24.9
5.85.86.0
Treviso vs EdinburghHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Munster95.996.495.9
Ulster87.789.988.0
94.695.394.6
Scarlets87.489.788.1
94.495.294.5
Leinster85.788.486.5
93.694.593.7
Cheetahs79.281.279.4
Zebre33.536.533.9
Treviso20.210.69.3
43.126.723.7
4.44.95.1
Dragons13.414.713.7
31.234.031.7
4.84.74.8
Edinburgh5.56.614.2
15.518.132.9
5.35.24.7
Blues7.38.47.5
Ospreys6.77.76.9
Connacht4.95.65.0
Kings0.60.70.6
Ulster vs LeinsterHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Munster*95.996.195.9
Ulster91.883.281.2
96.891.791.0
2.02.42.6
Scarlets87.688.687.8
94.594.694.5
2.22.12.2
Leinster82.784.692.6
91.992.697.2
2.52.31.9
Cheetahs79.379.879.4
Zebre33.734.4*33.8
Treviso16.118.216.0
35.936.6*35.9
Dragons13.415.413.6
31.432.231.5
Edinburgh8.39.88.6
21.322.021.4
Blues7.47.77.5
Ospreys6.87.06.8
Connacht4.95.14.9
Ospreys vs DragonsHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Munster94.094.494.4
96.196.395.7
Ulster88.988.886.5
94.995.194.3
Scarlets88.788.786.3
94.794.994.1
Leinster87.287.184.6
93.994.293.3
Cheetahs74.576.076.1
80.080.778.5
Zebre20.421.121.1
34.735.532.4
4.44.34.3
Treviso16.816.715.3
36.837.734.7
4.64.64.7
Dragons9.49.819.1
23.925.441.7
5.05.04.5
Edinburgh8.98.87.9
22.022.620.4
5.15.15.2
Blues4.14.34.3
7.78.07.0
5.75.55.5
Ospreys5.01.91.8
9.94.03.2
5.45.95.9
Connacht2.82.92.9
5.25.44.6
5.95.85.8
Kings0.60.70.6
Connacht vs MunsterHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow1.31.31.4
Munster91.091.996.4
93.393.997.7
2.32.32.0
Ulster94.694.894.6
Scarlets94.594.694.5
Leinster93.693.993.7
Cheetahs75.176.475.3
79.279.879.4
3.03.03.1
Zebre21.722.220.0
33.734.433.7
4.44.34.3
Treviso35.836.536.0
Dragons31.432.131.5
Edinburgh21.421.921.4
Blues4.44.64.1
7.47.77.4
5.75.65.6
Ospreys3.73.83.4
6.87.06.8
5.75.65.6
Connacht4.91.91.6
8.33.23.0
5.66.06.0
Glasgow vs KingsHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow99.598.498.1
99.799.098.8
1.31.51.5
Munster94.294.394.3
2.12.02.0
Ulster87.987.987.8
Cheetahs75.275.575.5
79.479.579.2
3.13.03.0
Zebre20.621.121.3
33.733.9*33.8
Treviso35.936.035.8
Dragons*31.531.631.5
Edinburgh21.421.521.4
5.15.15.2
Blues4.24.34.3
Ospreys3.53.63.6
Kings0.10.10.5
0.40.51.7
6.86.86.6

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Matt Grande for adding this league.