| Method: | |
| Weighted | |
| 50/50 | |
| Heineken Cup | |
| Pool 1 | |
| 23 | Saracens |
| 20 | Munster |
| 12 | Racing Métro |
| 0 | Edinburgh |
| Pool 2 | |
| 20 | Tigers |
| 19 | Toulouse |
| 12 | Ospreys |
| 5 | Treviso |
| Pool 3 | |
| 28 | Quins |
| 15 | Biarritz |
| 12 | Connacht |
| 1 | Zebre |
| Pool 4 | |
| 23 | Ulster |
| 15 | Saints |
| 14 | Castres |
| 6 | Glasgow |
| Pool 5 | |
| 28 | ASM Clermont |
| 20 | Leinster |
| 9 | Chiefs |
| 2 | Scarlets |
| Pool 6 | |
| 23 | Toulon |
| 21 | Montpellier |
| 6 | Blues |
| 4 | Sharks |
| Europe | |
| Pro12 | |
| Amlin Cup | |
| Heineken Cup | |
| England | |
| Europe | |
| France | |
| New Zealand | |
| South Africa | |
| Canada | |
| SouthernHemisphere | |
| ARC | |
| Super Rugby | |
| Season: | |
| 2012-13 | |
| What is this? | |
| Feedback | |
| Donate | |
Games Above .500 (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance will make playoffs | Promoted | Chance will finish regular season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1/20 | P | G | W | - | D | - | L | GD | % | Change | % | Change | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | Avg. | Change | RPI | Strength | |||||||
| Quins | 28 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 172 | In | Yes | 100 | 1.0 | 1 | .950 | Harlequins | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ASM Clermont | 28 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 149 | In | Yes | 100 | 2.0 | 1 | .950 | ASM Clermont Auvergne | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saracens | W | Edinburgh 40-7 | 23 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 104 | In | +0.0 | Yes | +0.0 | 100 | 3.0 | +1.06 | 3 | .800 | Saracens | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Toulon | 23 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 102 | In | Yes | 100 | 4.0 | -1.00 | 3 | .800 | Toulon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ulster | 23 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 71 | In | Yes | 100 | 5.0 | -0.03 | 7 | .800 | Ulster Rugby | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tigers | W | Toulouse 9-5 | 20 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 16 | In | +51.4 | Yes | +0.0 | 100 | 6.0 | +2.57 | 6 | .725 | Leicester Tigers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Munster | W | Racing Métro 29-6 | 20 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 60 | In | +47.9 | Yes | +0.0 | 100 | 7.0 | +1.44 | 9 | .650 | Munster Rugby | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Montpellier | 21 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 59 | In | +0.0 | Yes | 100 | 8.0 | -0.98 | 3 | .800 | Montpellier | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Toulouse | L | Tigers 5-9 | 19 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 48 | Out | -99.2 | Yes | +0.0 | 100 | 9.0 | -2.03 | 8 | .650 | Toulouse | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Leinster | 20 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 28 | Out | -0.0 | Yes | 100 | 10.0 | -0.51 | 10 | .650 | Leinster Rugby | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Biarritz | 15 | 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 22 | Out | Yes | +0.0 | 100 | 11.0 | -0.51 | 11 | .500 | Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ospreys | L | Treviso 14-17 | 12 | 2 | - | 1 | - | 3 | -4 | Out | -0.0 | No | -0.1 | 100 | 12.0 | +0.46 | 16 | .425 | Ospreys | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saints | 15 | 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | -15 | Out | No | 100 | 13.0 | +1.00 | 11 | .500 | Northampton Saints | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Castres | 14 | 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | -21 | Out | No | 100 | 14.0 | +1.00 | 11 | .500 | Castres Olympique | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Racing Métro | L | Munster 6-29 | 12 | 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | -22 | Out | -0.0 | No | -0.0 | 100 | 15.0 | -2.46 | 11 | .500 | Racing Métro 92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Glasgow | 6 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 5 | -35 | Out | No | 100 | 16.0 | 19 | .200 | Glasgow Warriors | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Blues | 6 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 5 | -41 | Out | No | 100 | 17.0 | 19 | .200 | Cardiff Blues | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Connacht | 12 | 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | -42 | Out | No | 100 | 18.0 | 11 | .500 | Connacht Rugby | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Treviso | W | Ospreys 17-14 | 5 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 5 | -60 | Out | -0.0 | No | -0.0 | 100 | 19.0 | 18 | .200 | Benetton Treviso | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chiefs | 9 | 2 | - | 0 | - | 4 | -73 | Out | No | 100 | 20.0 | 17 | .350 | Exeter Chiefs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Scarlets | 2 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 6 | -104 | Out | No | 100 | 21.0 | 22 | .050 | Scarlets | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sharks | 4 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 5 | -120 | Out | No | 100 | 22.0 | +1.00 | 19 | .200 | Sale Sharks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Edinburgh | L | Saracens 7-40 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 6 | -142 | Out | No | 100 | 23.0 | -1.00 | 22 | .050 | Edinburgh Rugby | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zebre | 1 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 6 | -152 | Out | No | 100 | 24.0 | 22 | .050 | Zebre | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Teams above the green line enter the H-Cup playoffs.
Teams between the red lines parachute into the knockout stage of the European Challenge Cup (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/rugby/Europe/AmlinCup.html).
Stats are updated approximately once daily, usually around 9AM Eastern.
Let me know if things are wrong: matt dot grande at gmail dot com.
Last Updated: January 22, 2013 - 08:12:13
Big Games
Who should we root for? Explain
| Week of 1/11 | ||||||
| Saints 18 Castres 12 | ||||||
| Fri | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Ulster | +0.2 | +1.1 | ||||
| Tigers | +0.5 | |||||
| Munster | +12.4 | +0.2 | ||||
| Montpellier | +8.2 | +0.3 | ||||
| Toulouse | +13.9 | |||||
| Leinster | +9.0 | +0.3 | ||||
| Biarritz | +19.2 | +0.3 | ||||
| Ospreys | +4.9 | +0.3 | ||||
| Saints | +1.6 | +1.6 | +0.7 | |||
| Castres | -36.4 | -36.4 | -3.7 | |||
| Racing Métro | +1.3 | |||||
| Connacht | +0.2 | |||||
| Edinburgh 17 Munster 26 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Munster | +5.8 | |||||
| Toulouse | -2.8 | |||||
| Biarritz | -3.0 | |||||
| Edinburgh | Out | |||||
| Toulouse 35 Treviso 14 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tigers | -1.0 | |||||
| Munster | -0.5 | |||||
| Toulouse | +1.7 | |||||
| Biarritz | -0.2 | |||||
| Ospreys 15 Tigers 15 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tigers | -1.5 | +0.9 | ||||
| Munster | *+0.5 | |||||
| Toulouse | +0.6 | |||||
| Biarritz | *+0.4 | |||||
| Ospreys | -0.8 | |||||
| Ulster 23 Glasgow 6 | ||||||
| Fri | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Munster | +0.4 | |||||
| Montpellier | +0.3 | |||||
| Toulouse | +0.5 | |||||
| Leinster | +0.3 | |||||
| Biarritz | +0.6 | |||||
| Ospreys | +0.2 | |||||
| Saints | -1.0 | -1.0 | ||||
| Castres | -0.2 | -0.2 | ||||
| Sharks 6 Montpellier 27 | ||||||
| Fri | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tigers | -0.2 | |||||
| Montpellier | +0.5 | |||||
| Sharks | Out | |||||
| Leinster 33 Scarlets 14 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Leinster | +3.8 | |||||
| Biarritz | -0.6 | |||||
| Ospreys | -1.0 | |||||
| Racing Métro | -2.2 | |||||
| Toulon 45 Blues 25 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Toulon | In | Yes | ||||
| Zebre 6 Biarritz 32 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Leinster | -2.0 | |||||
| Biarritz | +8.1 | +0.2 | ||||
| Ospreys | -2.0 | |||||
| Racing Métro | -4.1 | |||||
| Zebre | Out | No | ||||
| Week of 1/18 | ||||||
| Tigers 9 Toulouse 5 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tigers | In | Yes | +2.6 | |||
| Munster | -50.5 | -0.5 | ||||
| Toulouse | -0.8 | -1.0 | ||||
| Leinster | Out | -0.5 | ||||
| Biarritz | -0.5 | |||||
| Treviso | Out | |||||
| Montpellier 23 Toulon 3 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| ASM Clermont | +0.6 | |||||
| Toulon | -0.6 | |||||
| Munster | -17.7 | -0.4 | ||||
| Montpellier | +17.8 | Yes | +0.4 | |||
| Saracens 40 Edinburgh 7 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Saracens | In | Yes | +0.1 | |||
| Munster | -0.7 | |||||
| Montpellier | In | |||||
| Toulouse | +0.7 | |||||
| Leinster | Out | |||||
| Munster 29 Racing Métro 6 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Munster | +0.5 | Yes | ||||
| Toulouse | -0.5 | |||||
| Ospreys | +0.3 | |||||
| Racing Métro | Out | -0.3 | ||||
| Treviso | Out | |||||
| Glasgow 27 Saints 20 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Saints | Out | No | ||||
| Glasgow | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.9 | |||
| Connacht | -0.9 | |||||
| Treviso 17 Ospreys 14 | ||||||
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Biarritz | -0.1 | |||||
| Ospreys | Out | -0.5 | ||||
| Racing Métro | +0.5 | |||||
| Treviso | +0.2 | |||||
| Blues 26 Sharks 14 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Blues | +0.1 | +0.1 | ||||
| Sharks | -0.2 | |||||
| Edinburgh | +0.2 | |||||
| Chiefs 20 Leinster 29 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Treviso | +0.3 | |||||
| Chiefs | Out | No | -0.3 | |||
| Castres 8 Ulster 9 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Castres | Out | No | ||||
| Scarlets 0 ASM Clermont 29 | ||||||
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Promoted | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Scarlets | No | |||||
* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
Updated Monday, 2013-3-18 5:23 PM Eastern (GMT-04:00)
