Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsChance will finish regular season at seed
1/22PGW-D-LGD%Change1234567891011121314151617181920Avg.ChangeRPIStrength
Saracens245-1-094In1004.0-0.551.875Saracens
Toulon153-0-320Out-33.61009.0-0.349.500Toulon
Scarlets112-1-3-13Out10012.0-0.2412.425Scarlets
Sale41-0-5-101Out10017.0-0.0518.200Sale Sharks

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 1/7
Glasgow 12 Munster 14
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens-0.1
Toulon+1.6
Scarlets+1.1
Leinster 57 Montpellier 3
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens-0.0
Toulon+0.5
Scarlets+0.3
Racing 92 34 Leicester 3
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.4
Scarlets+0.3
Connacht 66 Zebre 21
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon-0.1
Scarlets-0.1
Week of 1/14
Leicester 0 Glasgow 43
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon-2.8
-0.1
Scarlets-1.2
Sale+0.1
Toulon 27 Sale 12
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+2.2
+0.3
Scarlets-0.1
Sale-0.7
-0.2
Scarlets 22 Saracens 22
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens-0.3
Toulon-0.3
-0.1
Scarlets+2.6
+1.3
Northampton 28 Castres 21
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+1.1
Scarlets+0.7
Bordeaux 6 Clermont 9
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens-0.1
Toulon+1.0
+0.1
Scarlets+0.6
+0.1
Castres 24 Leinster 24
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.9
Scarlets*+0.4
-0.2
Montpellier 26 Northampton 17
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon-0.6
Scarlets-0.4
-0.1
Sale+0.1
Exeter 31 Ulster 19
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.4
Scarlets+0.2
Munster 22 Racing 92 11
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens-0.0
Toulon+0.2
+0.0
Scarlets+0.1
+0.0
Sale+0.0
Wasps 17 Toulouse 14
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+0.2
Scarlets+0.1
Week of 1/21
Sale 25 Scarlets 23
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon+3.0
+0.1
Scarlets-25.4
-3.7
Sale+7.4
+2.9
Saracens 10 Toulon 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens+0.2
Toulon-5.8
-0.5
Scarlets+0.5
+0.1
Toulouse 19 Connacht 10
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon-2.7
-0.0
Scarlets-0.0
Ulster 22 Bordeaux 26
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon-0.9
Scarlets-0.4
Sale+0.0
Zebre 27 Wasps 41
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toulon-0.9
-0.0
Clermont 48 Exeter 26
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Saracens-0.0
Toulon+0.6
+0.1
Scarlets+0.3
+0.1

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.