European Rugby Champions Cup Playoff Chances

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs														Chance will finish regular season at seed
	1/22		P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	RPI	Strength

Leinster			23		4	-	1	-	1	140	In			100																				1.0	+0.30	5	.725	Leinster
Wasps	W	Zebre 41-27	21		4	-	1	-	1	98	In		+1.3		100																			2.0	+3.15	4	.725	Wasps
Munster			24		5	-	0	-	1	95	In					100																		3.0	-0.55	2	.800	Munster
Saracens			24		5	-	1	-	0	94	In						100																	4.0	-0.55	1	.875	Saracens
Clermont			25		5	-	0	-	1	80	In							100																5.0	-0.18	2	.800	Clermont
Glasgow			19		4	-	0	-	2	74	In								50	50														6.5	+0.47	8	.650	Glasgow Warriors
Toulouse	W	Connacht 19-10	18		3	-	1	-	2	74	In		+23.4						50	50														6.5	+2.54	7	.575	Toulouse
Connacht	L	Toulouse 10-19	18		4	-	0	-	2	70	In		+9.3								100													8.0	-3.18	6	.650	Connacht

Toulon			15		3	-	0	-	3	20	Out		-33.6									100												9.0	-0.34	9	.500	Toulon
Bordeaux			14		3	-	0	-	3	-2	Out		-0.3										100											10.0	-0.27	11	.500	Bordeaux Bègles
Castres			12		2	-	1	-	3	-3	Out													100										11.0	-0.27	13	.425	Castres
Scarlets			11		2	-	1	-	3	-13	Out														100									12.0	-0.24	12	.425	Scarlets
Montpellier			16		3	-	0	-	3	-29	Out															100								13.0	-0.20	10	.500	Montpellier
Exeter			13		2	-	0	-	4	-36	Out																100							14.0	-0.18	14	.350	Exeter Chiefs
Racing 92			5		1	-	0	-	5	-40	Out																	100						15.0	-0.17	19	.200	Racing 92
Ulster			10		2	-	0	-	4	-42	Out																		100					16.0	-0.17	16	.350	Ulster
Sale			4		1	-	0	-	5	-101	Out																			100				17.0	-0.05	18	.200	Sale Sharks
Northampton			9		2	-	0	-	4	-108	Out																				100			18.0	-0.04	15	.350	Northampton Saints
Leicester			8		2	-	0	-	4	-129	Out																					100		19.0	-0.02	16	.350	Leicester Tigers
Zebre	L	Wasps 27-41	0		0	-	0	-	6	-242	Out		-0.0																				100	20.0	-0.04	20	.050	Zebre

Week of 1/7
Glasgow 12 Munster 14
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wasps	+1.5
Munster	In		+2.6
Glasgow	-30.9		-3.3
Toulouse	+2.5
Connacht	+1.4
Toulon	+1.6
Montpellier	+1.5

Racing 92 34 Leicester 3
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Racing 92	+8.0		+2.4
Leicester	-12.0		-2.5

Leinster 57 Montpellier 3
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Leinster	In		+0.8
Toulouse	+0.7
Toulon	+0.5
Castres	-0.3
Montpellier	-10.0		-1.0

Racing 92 7 Munster 32
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Munster	+3.5		+0.4
Glasgow	-1.9		-0.2
Racing 92	-1.4		-0.3

Connacht 66 Zebre 21
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toulouse	-0.3
Connacht	+1.5		+0.2
Zebre			-0.1

Week of 1/14
Leicester 0 Glasgow 43
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	+17.3		+1.4
Toulouse	-3.3
Toulon	-2.8
Scarlets	-1.2
Leicester	Out		-1.4

Exeter 31 Ulster 19
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Clermont	+1.5
Glasgow	+0.9
Toulouse	+0.8
Toulon	+0.4
Exeter	+11.1		+2.1
Ulster	-15.7		-2.2

Northampton 28 Castres 21
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	+2.4
Toulouse	+1.6
Toulon	+1.1
Castres	-15.5		-1.9
Northampton	+5.1		+1.6

Wasps 17 Toulouse 14
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wasps	+11.8		+1.3
Glasgow	+0.5
Toulouse	-15.1		-1.7
Connacht	+1.9

Bordeaux 6 Clermont 9
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Clermont	In		+0.7
Glasgow	+2.2
Toulouse	+2.0
Toulon	+1.0
Bordeaux	-10.7		-1.3

Montpellier 26 Northampton 17
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	-1.5
Toulouse	-1.3
Toulon	-0.6
Montpellier	+8.8		+1.6
Northampton	Out		-1.2

Castres 24 Leinster 24
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	+2.0
Toulouse	+1.7
Toulon	+0.9
Castres	-5.8		+1.6
Scarlets	*+0.4		-0.2

Scarlets 22 Saracens 22
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saracens			-0.3
Glasgow	-0.7
Toulouse	-0.6
Toulon	-0.3
Scarlets	+2.6		+1.3

Toulon 27 Sale 12
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	-0.4
Toulouse	-0.4
Toulon	+2.2		+0.3
Sale	-0.7		-0.2

Munster 22 Racing 92 11
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	+0.6
Toulouse	+0.5
Toulon	+0.2
Racing 92	-2.0		-0.3

Week of 1/21
Sale 25 Scarlets 23
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	+3.7		+0.2
Toulouse	+7.5
Toulon	+3.0
Castres	+1.2		+0.3
Scarlets	-25.4		-3.7
Sale	+7.4		+2.9
Northampton			-0.3

Toulouse 19 Connacht 10
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wasps			+2.1
Toulouse	In		+2.1
Connacht	-20.6		-3.8
Toulon	-2.7

Ulster 22 Bordeaux 26
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Glasgow	-1.2
Toulouse	-2.3
Toulon	-0.9
Bordeaux	+18.1		+2.4
Castres	-0.3
Scarlets	-0.4
Ulster	Out		-2.4

Saracens 10 Toulon 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saracens			+0.2
Glasgow	+1.7
Toulouse	+2.2
Toulon	-5.8		-0.5
Castres	+0.5
Scarlets	+0.5

Clermont 48 Exeter 26
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Clermont			+0.2
Glasgow	+1.1
Toulouse	+1.4
Toulon	+0.6
Exeter	-4.0		-0.6

Zebre 27 Wasps 41
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wasps	In		+0.2
Toulon	-0.9
Bordeaux	Out
Zebre	Out

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

European Rugby Champions Cup Playoff Chances

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