Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

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Chance will make playoffsChance will finish regular season at seed
PGW-D-LGD%Change1234567891011121314151617181920Avg.ChangeRPI
Ospreys1813-1-016596.9%+1.260147424421110000000002.3+0.334Ospreys
Harlequins183-0-212792.7+4.81112200451574210000005.5-1.2014Harlequins
Gloucester204-0-18288.3+31.7922191311266432111000004.4+3.871Gloucester
Bath184-0-16482.7+34.75141919181355432211000005.0+4.071Bath
La Rochelle194-0-17673.5-0.14108301618149643211000006.8-0.635La Rochelle
Edinburgh194-0-14769.4+15.33121717140256764321100006.1+2.033Edinburgh
Dragons133-0-22750.8+17.3151017170013699764310008.1+2.4012Newport Gwent Dragons
Brive143-0-2-750.0+19.8015143000137998753009.4+1.8310Brive
Cardiff184-0-13348.6-12.51479559910977654210008.7-0.955Cardiff Blues
Lyon1312-1-13747.9-0.4543101213109886544322109.2-0.037Lyon
Stade Français1112-0-2632.4-0.31333276778987665543110.7+0.148Stade Français
Enisey133-0-2-719.7-39.9000003791011988997530011.7-3.599Enisey-STM
Worcester71-0-4-1316.8-9.92681010989998631012.1-0.4017Worcester Warriors
Newcastle112-0-3-1714.0-9.325779111210998641012.3-0.3511Newcastle Falcons
Bristol102-0-3-2711.9-23.7147877911111010851012.9-2.6515Bristol
Pau20-0-5-701.8-5.7001234679111416177115.3-0.5419Pau
Bayonne10-0-5-741.5-7.2001234679111416188215.5-0.9819Bayonne
Treviso82-0-3-841.0-16.00012234671013172211316.0-2.7615Benetton Treviso
Saracens010-0-4-1800.1-0.000000111123510304518.8-0.1718Timișoara Saracens
Grenoble51-0-4-1850.0-0.10000001249374719.2-0.4113Grenoble

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 1/12
Dragons 34 Enisey 10
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester+0.4
Edinburgh+0.4
Dragons+24.2
+2.9
Brive+1.9
+0.3
Lyon+0.6
Stade Français+0.4
Enisey-32.4
-3.5
Worcester+1.8
+0.2
Bristol+0.4
Brive 17 Worcester 14
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Brive+23.6
+2.9
Enisey-8.7
-0.7
Worcester-19.8
-2.4
Bristol 22 Bath 57
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Bath+28.5
+3.0
Bristol-24.1
-2.9
Harlequins 18 Edinburgh 23
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Harlequins-12.1
-2.4
Gloucester-1.3
Bath-1.4
La Rochelle-0.8
Edinburgh+28.0
+3.1
Dragons-1.2
Brive-1.0
Cardiff-0.7
Lyon-1.7
Stade Français-0.4
Worcester-1.3
Newcastle-1.4
Bristol-1.3
Pau-0.7
Bayonne-0.7
Treviso-0.8
Treviso 0 Gloucester 41
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester+24.4
+2.6
La Rochelle-3.7
-0.5
Treviso-15.1
-2.4
Bayonne 14 La Rochelle 24
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester-6.6
-0.8
La Rochelle+22.5
+2.5
Bayonne-8.1
-2.0
Treviso-3.4
-0.2
Pau 21 Cardiff 22
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester-0.5
Bath-4.5
-0.5
Cardiff+18.0
+2.3
Lyon-0.7
Stade Français-0.5
Worcester-0.5
Bristol-0.9
Pau-7.1
-2.0
Grenoble 31 Newcastle 27
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ospreys+1.6
Gloucester+1.2
Bath+1.2
Edinburgh+1.4
Dragons+1.1
Brive+0.9
Lyon+1.5
Stade Français+1.3
Worcester+1.2
Newcastle-17.2
-2.3
Bristol+1.1
Treviso+0.8
Grenoble+0.7
Ospreys vs LyonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
OspreysInIn93.7
1.21.53.4
La Rochelle76.2*73.270.8
6.76.86.9
Lyon23.446.672.3
11.69.46.7
Saracens vs Stade FrançaisHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Edinburgh80.981.057.6
5.35.37.0
Stade Français9.622.955.3
13.411.08.0
Saracens18.019.119.6
Week of 1/19
Brive vs DragonsIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Dragons2.020.6In
12.49.53.9
BriveIn*50.30.0
4.48.414.3
Enisey19.449.719.6
11.89.711.6
Cardiff vs BristolHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Bath65.765.4In
6.36.43.7
Cardiff89.768.37.3
5.56.711.8
BristolOutOut23.9
15.413.210.3
Edinburgh vs SaracensHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Harlequins91.491.694.0
6.64.44.3
La Rochelle70.172.076.9
7.06.86.6
EdinburghIn87.038.5
3.16.09.1
Cardiff45.847.051.5
8.88.78.5
Lyon45.046.450.8
9.39.29.0
Stade Français28.429.336.4
11.311.310.2
Enisey16.618.222.8
11.911.811.6
Worcester13.915.619.7
12.212.112.0
Saracens19.519.118.0
Stade Français vs HarlequinsHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Harlequins85.3In100.0
7.14.23.8
La Rochelle70.674.476.4
6.96.86.7
Edinburgh77.859.561.1
5.56.96.8
Cardiff45.949.651.4
8.88.78.5
Lyon45.348.750.4
9.39.19.0
Stade Français54.226.110.7
8.111.013.3
Enisey17.020.822.4
12.011.711.5
Worcester14.317.619.3
12.312.111.9
Worcester vs EniseyHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
La Rochelle73.878.373.1
6.86.76.8
Enisey0.00.539.7
14.511.19.0
Worcester33.8OutOut
9.312.514.8
La Rochelle vs TrevisoHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester76.776.9In
5.65.53.2
La Rochelle99.496.447.2
4.55.39.1
TrevisoOutOut2.1
17.816.614.1
Lyon vs GrenobleHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ospreys93.893.7In
2.92.91.7
La Rochelle70.8*73.676.2
6.96.86.7
Lyon72.350.823.4
6.88.311.6
GrenobleOutOut0.1
19.719.518.7
Bath vs PauHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
BathIn89.565.4
2.95.87.2
Cardiff43.354.253.8
9.67.67.8
PauOutOut3.7
17.415.813.2
Newcastle vs OspreysHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ospreys93.799.5In
3.42.71.2
Newcastle28.1OutOut
9.812.414.8
Gloucester vs BayonneHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
GloucesterIn97.976.4
2.35.16.5
La Rochelle73.374.473.7
7.85.75.8
BayonneOutOut3.1
17.516.113.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Matt Grande for adding this league.