Pool 1 Playoff Chances 2016-17

												100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs												Chance will finish regular season at seed
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	RPI	Strength

Gloucester	20		4	-	0	-	1	82	99.3	%	+27.8	6	51	31	8	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	2.6	+4.80	1	.750	Gloucester

La Rochelle	19		4	-	0	-	1	76	90.8		-3.5	0	1	1	0	0	17	47	24	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	7.2	-3.30	5	.750	La Rochelle
Treviso	8		2	-	0	-	3	-84	0.1		-3.1						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	18	33	36	3	1	16.9	-2.08	15	.417	Benetton Treviso
Bayonne	1		0	-	0	-	5	-74	0.1		-0.1						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11	28	31	24	2	0	16.7	+0.10	19	.083	Bayonne

Week of 1/12
Treviso 0 Gloucester 41
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	+14.9		+1.1
La Rochelle	-2.9		-0.4
Treviso	-2.4		-0.8
Bayonne			+0.1

Harlequins 18 Edinburgh 23
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	-4.1		-0.2
La Rochelle	-0.9		+0.2
Treviso	-0.5

Bayonne 14 La Rochelle 24
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	-0.9		-0.2
La Rochelle	+1.7		+0.3
Treviso			+0.0
Bayonne	-0.1		-0.1

Grenoble 31 Newcastle 27
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	+1.7		+0.1
La Rochelle	+0.3
Treviso	+0.2		+0.2

Bristol 22 Bath 57
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	-0.8
La Rochelle	-0.2
Treviso	-0.1		+0.0
Bayonne			+0.0

Pau 21 Cardiff 22
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	-0.2
Treviso			+0.0
Bayonne			+0.0

Brive 17 Worcester 14
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	-0.1
Treviso			+0.0

Dragons 34 Enisey 10
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Treviso			-0.0

Ospreys vs LyonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	99.4*99.399.2		2.62.62.5
La Rochelle	92.1*90.886.1		7.27.27.4

Saracens vs Stade FrançaisHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	99.499.499.3
La Rochelle	92.792.790.4		7.17.17.2

Week of 1/19
Gloucester vs BayonneIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	In94.875.2		2.46.67.6
La Rochelle	90.794.894.8		7.33.53.5
Treviso			16.917.217.3
Bayonne	OutOut2.2		16.716.114.7

La Rochelle vs TrevisoHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	99.299.3In		2.62.62.5
La Rochelle	95.291.666.9		7.07.48.4
Treviso	OutOut0.7		17.216.815.5
Bayonne			16.616.717.0

Cardiff vs BristolHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	99.399.599.5
La Rochelle	90.294.294.0		7.27.17.1
Treviso			16.917.017.0
Bayonne			16.616.816.8

Lyon vs GrenobleHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	99.399.599.5
La Rochelle	90.293.194.0		7.27.17.1

Edinburgh vs SaracensHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester	99.399.499.5		2.62.82.9
La Rochelle	90.693.094.4		7.26.86.8
Treviso			16.917.017.0

Bath vs PauHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester			2.62.42.4
La Rochelle	90.793.493.6		7.27.17.1
Treviso			16.917.217.2
Bayonne			16.717.017.0

Newcastle vs OspreysHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester			2.42.52.6
La Rochelle	89.289.791.2		7.37.37.2
Treviso			17.017.016.9
Bayonne			16.716.716.6

Worcester vs EniseyHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
La Rochelle	91.092.290.7
Treviso			17.017.016.9

Stade Français vs HarlequinsHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
La Rochelle	90.290.591.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Pool 1 Playoff Chances 2016-17

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