SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Ospreys Playoff Chances 2016-17

Plays Lyon, playoff odds up 0.1 to 99.5%

18 points 3-1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 1/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Harlequins 18 Edinburgh 23	-0.1		+0.1
Grenoble 31 Newcastle 27	+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Ospreys vs Lyon	InIn-1.7		+0.3+0.2-1.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 1/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Newcastle vs Ospreys	-2.0*-0.0In		-1.0-0.7+0.3
Lyon vs Grenoble	-0.1-0.1In		-0.0-0.0+0.2
Edinburgh vs Saracens	-0.0+0.1+0.1		+0.0-0.1-0.1
La Rochelle vs Treviso	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Cardiff vs Bristol	-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ospreys finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Count

22		2	-	0	-	0	In		97	3	0	0																	11,664,661
20		1	-	1	-	0	In		94	5	0	0																	208,661
18		1	-	0	-	1	In		81	13	4	1	0																6,193,527
		0	-	2	-	0	In		93	7	0																		916
16		0	-	1	-	1	98.8	%	40	10	3	1	0	28	12	4	1	0	0								0		55,112
14		0	-	0	-	2	88.8		8	3	2	1	1	37	25	12	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	821,283

Total:							99.5	%	88	6	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	18,944,160

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs