"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 1/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Treviso 0 Gloucester 41 -2.9
-0.4
Bayonne 14 La Rochelle 24 +1.7
+0.3
Harlequins 18 Edinburgh 23 -0.9
+0.2
Grenoble 31 Newcastle 27 +0.3
Bristol 22 Bath 57 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Ospreys vs Lyon+1.3*+0.0-4.7
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Saracens vs Stade Français+1.9+1.9-0.4
+0.1+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 1/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
La Rochelle vs Treviso+4.4+0.8-23.9
+0.2-0.2-1.2
Gloucester vs Bayonne-0.1+4.0+4.0
-0.1+3.7+3.8
Cardiff vs Bristol-0.6+3.4+3.2
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Lyon vs Grenoble-0.6+2.3+3.2
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Edinburgh vs Saracens-0.2+2.2+3.6
-0.0+0.4+0.5
Bath vs Pau-0.1+2.6+2.8
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Newcastle vs Ospreys-1.6-1.1+0.4
-0.1-0.1+0.0
Worcester vs Enisey+0.2+1.4-0.1
Stade Français vs Harlequins-0.6-0.3+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the La Rochelle finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs1234567891011121314151617181920Count
201-0-095.2%02100195023400015,866,852
180-1-091.60110035234810132,276
160-0-166.923530147422210002,945,032
Total:90.8%01100174724611000000018,944,160
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs