Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

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Chance will make playoffsChance will finish regular season at seed
1/12PGW-D-LGD%Change1234567891011121314151617181920Avg.ChangeRPIStrength1/19
OspreysLyon1813-1-016599.5%+0.1886110211000000000001.3+0.334.788at NewcastleOspreys
GloucesterWTreviso 41-0204-0-18299.3+27.8651318101100000000002.6+4.801.750BayonneGloucester
BathWBristol 57-22184-0-16498.5+40.83214327400110000000003.2+4.771.750PauBath
EdinburghWHarlequins 23-18194-0-14797.6+30.01141552140011100000000003.9+2.973.750SaracensEdinburgh
HarlequinsLEdinburgh 18-23183-0-212794.3-1.5010006819532100006.4-2.5614.583at Stade FrançaisHarlequins
La RochelleWBayonne 24-14194-0-17690.8-3.50110017472461100000007.2-3.305.750TrevisoLa Rochelle
BriveWWorcester 17-14143-0-2-760.5+24.6013552001615554221008.0+2.0310.583DragonsBrive
CardiffWPau 22-21184-0-13340.3-44.80001131024331841111000008.8-3.695.750BristolCardiff Blues
Lyonat Ospreys1312-1-13740.2-6.31111041022231474343100009.2-0.327.596GrenobleLyon
DragonsWEnisey 34-10133-0-22739.4+23.4034527000617168443100008.6+3.1412.583at BriveNewport Gwent Dragons
Stade Françaisat Saracens1112-0-2623.6+0.100011561013211984541110010.2+0.408.500HarlequinsStade Français
EniseyLDragons 10-34133-0-2-710.1-62.20000003781732214331110010.9-4.319.583at WorcesterEnisey-STM
WorcesterLBrive 14-1771-0-4-132.4-2.801223722301394430013.0+0.6417.250EniseyWorcester Warriors
NewcastleLGrenoble 27-31112-0-3-171.7-10.8001224142925114430013.5-1.2711.417OspreysNewcastle Falcons
BristolLBath 22-57102-0-3-271.4-11.600111151731256650014.2-2.2415.417at CardiffBristol
TrevisoLGloucester 0-4182-0-3-840.1-3.100000001261833363116.9-2.0815.417at La RochelleBenetton Treviso
BayonneLLa Rochelle 14-2410-0-5-740.1-0.1000000002112831242016.7+0.1019.083at GloucesterBayonne
PauLCardiff 21-2220-0-5-700.1-0.1000000015203416212016.3+0.7019.083at BathPau
SaracensStade Français010-0-4-1800.00000000000013415519.5-0.1918.117at EdinburghTimiÈ™oara Saracens
GrenobleWNewcastle 31-2751-0-4-1850.0-0.00000000013524419.4+0.0813.250at LyonGrenoble

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 1/12
Dragons 34 Enisey 10
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Brive+15.6
+1.2
Dragons+16.4
+1.9
Enisey-32.2
-2.9
Worcester+0.7
Harlequins 18 Edinburgh 23
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester-4.1
-0.2
Bath-3.8
Edinburgh+30.2
+3.5
Harlequins-6.5
-2.9
La Rochelle-0.9
+0.2
Brive-1.5
Cardiff-0.9
Lyon-4.6
-0.2
Dragons-1.2
Stade Français-1.9
Enisey-0.7
Worcester-0.7
Newcastle-1.8
Bristol-1.1
Bristol 22 Bath 57
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester-0.8
Bath+17.0
+1.2
Edinburgh-0.6
Cardiff-3.7
-0.3
Lyon-1.0
Stade Français-0.5
Bristol-9.0
-1.1
Treviso 0 Gloucester 41
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester+14.9
+1.1
Bath-1.5
Edinburgh-1.7
La Rochelle-2.9
-0.4
Brive-0.6
Lyon-1.9
Dragons-0.5
Stade Français-1.0
Newcastle-0.7
Bristol-0.4
Treviso-2.4
-0.8
Grenoble 31 Newcastle 27
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester+1.7
Bath+1.5
Edinburgh+1.4
Lyon+1.8
Dragons+0.2
Worcester+0.2
Newcastle-10.1
-2.0
Bristol+0.2
Saracens-0.2
Grenoble+0.5
Brive 17 Worcester 14
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Brive+8.7
+1.0
Enisey-4.8
-0.4
Worcester-3.3
-0.6
Pau 21 Cardiff 22
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester-0.2
Bath-1.2
-0.1
Edinburgh-0.2
Cardiff+2.9
+0.3
Lyon-0.3
Bristol-0.3
Pau-0.1
Bayonne 14 La Rochelle 24
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester-0.9
-0.2
La Rochelle+1.7
+0.3
Bayonne-0.1
Ospreys vs LyonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
OspreysInIn97.8
1.11.12.3
La Rochelle92.1*90.886.1
7.27.27.4
Cardiff43.933.628.0
8.78.99.0
Lyon31.748.169.9
9.88.77.2
Stade Français24.723.119.6
10.210.310.4
Saracens vs Stade FrançaisHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cardiff45.644.439.4
8.68.78.8
Lyon44.743.939.4
9.09.19.2
Stade Français7.210.326.6
12.110.89.9
Week of 1/19
Brive vs DragonsIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
BriveIn23.50.0
4.810.213.0
Dragons0.71.5In
11.310.14.4
Enisey9.676.59.7
11.16.710.7
Edinburgh vs SaracensHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
EdinburghIn87.039.5
3.76.19.2
Harlequins94.2*94.396.3
6.54.54.4
Cardiff39.942.949.9
8.88.68.5
Lyon39.942.647.3
9.29.18.9
Stade Français22.524.051.4
10.310.38.1
Bath vs PauHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
BathIn66.648.9
3.17.68.6
Cardiff38.885.586.1
8.94.94.9
Lyon40.331.238.1
9.29.49.3
PauOutOut2.2
16.315.514.3
Cardiff vs BristolHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Bath98.2*98.5In
3.33.23.1
Cardiff46.020.410.5
8.49.110.6
Lyon38.649.948.6
9.29.09.1
BristolOutOut8.9
14.613.812.2
Lyon vs GrenobleHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ospreys99.499.5In
1.41.41.1
Cardiff38.244.652.7
8.88.78.5
Lyon44.827.314.6
8.99.611.1
GrenobleOutOut0.2
19.519.318.9
La Rochelle vs TrevisoHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Gloucester99.299.3In
2.62.62.5
La Rochelle95.291.666.9
7.07.48.4
Cardiff38.9*40.048.1
8.88.88.6
Lyon39.239.745.9
9.29.29.1
TrevisoOutOut0.7
17.216.815.5
Stade Français vs HarlequinsHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Harlequins88.7100.0100.0
6.86.16.0
Cardiff37.441.743.4
8.98.88.7
Lyon37.741.042.7
9.39.29.1
Stade Français36.515.610.4
9.110.211.4
Gloucester vs BayonneHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
GloucesterIn94.875.2
2.46.67.6
La Rochelle90.794.894.8
7.33.53.5
Cardiff40.2*40.646.5
8.88.88.6
BayonneOutOut2.2
16.716.114.7
Worcester vs EniseyHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Enisey0.00.013.2
12.811.210.4
Worcester10.6OutOut
11.212.513.6
Newcastle vs OspreysHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ospreys97.5*99.5In
2.42.11.1
Lyon43.244.939.4
8.68.59.4
Newcastle8.8OutOut
11.613.013.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Matt Grande for adding this league.