How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 3/5 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Average seed Bombers 1 Deacons 2 -3.2 -0.0 Ice Dogs 3 Falcons 0 -0.1 -0.0 If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway Ice Dogs vs Wolverines -9.1+2.6+2.7+11.4+11.4+11.5 -0.4-0.0-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.5 Capitals vs Deacons +4.3-4.5-4.4-13.4-13.4-13.4 +0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2 Blues vs Falcons -1.6-1.6-1.6*-0.1*-0.1+2.3 -0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1 Bombers vs Bears -0.7-0.5-0.7+0.1+0.1+0.3 If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway Week of 3/12 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Average seed Wolverines vs Ice Dogs +9.4+9.4+9.4-0.5-0.4-13.0 +0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5 Wolverines vs Pioneers +11.1+11.1+11.1+2.1+2.2-9.7 +0.4+0.4+0.4+0.0+0.0-0.3 Ice Dogs vs Wolverines -9.1+2.6+2.6+11.4+11.4+11.5 -0.4-0.0-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.5 Deacons vs Bears -11.1-11.1-11.1-2.0-2.0+6.4 -0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1 Deacons vs Falcons -8.2-8.2-8.2+0.7+0.7+8.6 -0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1 Capitals vs Falcons +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Wolverines finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed TP W L - OT playoffs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Count 28 6 0 - 0 In 95 5 76,303 27 5 0 - 1 In 88 12 160,578 26 5 1 - 0 In 58 41 0 554,609 4 0 - 2 In 58 41 1 0 145,359 25 4 1 - 1 100.0 % 36 55 9 0 0 1,005,252 3 0 - 3 In 27 51 21 1 68,207 24 4 2 - 0 100.0 7 51 36 6 0 1,732,219 3 1 - 2 99.9 3 27 57 13 0 706,256 2 0 - 4 99.9 10 72 19 0 17,399 23 3 2 - 1 98.8 1 12 57 29 1 2,433,463 2 1 - 3 98.5 4 61 34 1 240,225 1 0 - 5 98.2 4 61 34 2 2,321 22 3 3 - 0 94.3 32 62 6 2,791,830 2 2 - 2 94.3 32 62 6 1,240,794 1 1 - 4 94.3 32 62 6 39,468 0 0 - 6 95.4 35 61 5 109 21 2 3 - 1 81.9 17 65 18 2,846,999 1 2 - 3 81.9 16 66 18 273,003 0 1 - 5 81.7 15 67 18 2,455 20 2 4 - 0 65.0 3 62 35 0 2,454,795 1 3 - 2 65.1 3 62 35 0 934,457 0 2 - 4 65.7 3 62 34 0 21,766 19 1 4 - 1 40.6 1 40 58 1 1,613,107 0 3 - 3 40.3 1 40 58 1 99,547 18 1 5 - 0 21.8 22 71 7 1,110,777 0 4 - 2 21.9 22 71 7 257,166 17 0 5 - 1 6.7 7 72 21 354,710 16 0 6 - 0 1.7 2 49 50 209,692 Total: 78.3 % 5 11 22 41 20 1 21,392,866
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 Week of 3/5 100.0* Lottery seed Bombers 1 Deacons 2 +0.0 Ice Dogs 3 Falcons 0 +0.0 If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway Ice Dogs vs Wolverines +0.4+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5 Capitals vs Deacons -0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2 Blues vs Falcons +0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1 If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway Week of 3/12 100.0* Lottery seed Ice Dogs vs Wolverines +0.4+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5 Wolverines vs Ice Dogs -0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5 Wolverines vs Pioneers -0.4-0.4-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.3 Deacons vs Bears +0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1 Deacons vs Falcons +0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1 Capitals vs Falcons -0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W L - OT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 28 6 0 - 0 95 5 27 5 0 - 1 88 12 26 5 1 - 0 58 41 0 4 0 - 2 58 41 1 0 25 4 1 - 1 36 55 9 0 0 3 0 - 3 27 51 21 1 24 4 2 - 0 7 51 36 6 0 3 1 - 2 3 27 57 13 0 2 0 - 4 10 72 19 0 23 3 2 - 1 1 12 57 29 1 2 1 - 3 4 61 34 1 1 0 - 5 4 61 34 2 22 3 3 - 0 32 62 6 2 2 - 2 32 62 6 1 1 - 4 32 62 6 0 0 - 6 35 61 5 21 2 3 - 1 17 65 18 1 2 - 3 16 66 18 0 1 - 5 15 67 18 20 2 4 - 0 3 62 35 0 1 3 - 2 3 62 35 0 0 2 - 4 3 62 34 0 19 1 4 - 1 1 40 58 1 0 3 - 3 1 40 58 1 18 1 5 - 0 22 71 7 0 4 - 2 22 71 7 17 0 5 - 1 7 72 21 16 0 6 - 0 2 49 50 Total: 5 11 22 41 20 1