West Bend Bombers Playoff Chances 2010-2011

Lost to Deacons 1-2, playoff odds down 5.1 to 0.7%

15 points 7 15-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Bombers 1 Deacons 2	-5.1		-0.4
Ice Dogs 3 Falcons 0	-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Bombers vs Bears	+1.4+1.4+1.4-0.2-0.2-0.6		+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1
Ice Dogs vs Wolverines	+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5
Capitals vs Deacons	+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blues vs Falcons	-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 3/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wolverines vs Ice Dogs	-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.7
Wolverines vs Pioneers	-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.2-0.2+0.5
Ice Dogs vs Wolverines	+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5
Deacons vs Falcons	-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.3		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Deacons vs Bears	-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Bombers finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

21	3	0		-	0	29.6	%							2	28	57	14	101,972
20	2	0		-	1	12.1								0	12	58	30	348,784
19	2	1		-	0	3.5									4	41	55	1,198,511
	1	0		-	2	3.6									4	41	55	398,124
18	1	1		-	1	0.6									1	25	74	2,730,630
	0	0		-	3	0.7									1	26	74	135,816
17	1	2		-	0	0.1									0	9	90	4,705,522
	0	1		-	2	0.1									0	9	90	1,401,458
16	0	2		-	1	Out										4	96	4,824,449
15	0	3		-	0	Out											100	5,547,600

Total:						0.7	%							0	1	11	88	21,392,866

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 3/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bombers 1 Deacons 2	+0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Bombers vs Bears	-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1
Capitals vs Deacons	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 3/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Deacons vs Falcons	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Deacons vs Bears	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

21	3	0		-	0							2	28	57	14
20	2	0		-	1							0	12	58	30
19	2	1		-	0								4	41	55
	1	0		-	2								4	41	55
18	1	1		-	1								1	25	74
	0	0		-	3								1	26	74
17	1	2		-	0								0	9	90
	0	1		-	2								0	9	90
16	0	2		-	1									4	96
15	0	3		-	0										100

Total:												0	1	11	88