Wichita Thunder Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 9.8%

29 points 12 21-5 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Brabham	100.0*	Average seed
SC 7 WIC 1	-3.4		No		-0.3
UTA 2 RC 3	-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Brabham	100.0*	Average seed
SC vs WIC	-2.7-0.6-0.6+1.9+2.4+2.3		NoNoNoNoNo+0.0		-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
KC vs ALN	+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6				+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
UTA vs RC	+0.5-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.3
TUL vs BOI	-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2*+0.0+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the WIC finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Brabham		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

97		34	0		-	0	0		In		44.4	%	80	19	1												1,718
92		31	2		-	1	0		In		16.7		50	50													6	*
91		30	2		-	2	0		In		No			69	31												13	*
90		30	3		-	1	0		In		No		6	47	19	28											32	*
89		29	3		-	2	0		In		No		7	29	43	20	1										116	*
88		29	4		-	1	0		In		No		1	19	43	32	4	0									269	*
87		28	4		-	2	0		In		No		1	13	39	38	8	1	0								564	*
86		28	5		-	1	0		In		No		1	8	27	45	18	2									1,261	*
85		27	5		-	2	0		In		No		0	3	20	45	27	5	0								2,788	*
84		26	5		-	3	0		In		No		0	1	11	39	37	11	1	0							5,637	*
83		26	6		-	2	0		99.9	%	No			0	5	29	43	19	3	0	0						10,683	*
82		25	6		-	3	0		99.8		No			0	2	17	41	30	8	1	0						19,495	*
81		25	7		-	2	0		99.5		No			0	1	9	32	39	17	2	1	0					33,592	*
80		24	7		-	3	0		98.5		No			0	0	3	20	39	30	6	1	0	0				55,891	*
79		24	8		-	2	0		96.5		No				0	1	10	31	41	14	3	0	0				88,735	*
78		23	8		-	3	0		92.7		No				0	0	4	19	44	26	6	1	0	0			135,708	*
77		23	9		-	2	0		85.9		No					0	1	9	39	37	9	4	1	0	0		200,555	*
76		22	9		-	3	0		76.2		No					0	0	3	28	45	11	9	3	0	0		282,993	*
75		22	10		-	2	0		63.5		No					0	0	1	17	46	11	16	8	1	0	0	389,338	*
74		21	10		-	3	0		49.2		No						0	0	9	40	8	21	17	4	0	0	511,297	*
73		21	11		-	2	0		34.7		No						0	0	4	31	5	21	27	11	2	0	651,821	*
72		20	11		-	3	0		22.2		No							0	2	21	2	16	33	21	5	0	799,667	*
71		20	12		-	2	0		13.0		No							0	1	12	1	10	32	31	12	2	952,257	*
70		19	12		-	3	0		6.7		No								0	7	0	5	25	38	22	4	1,095,931	*
69		19	13		-	2	0		3.2		No								0	3	0	2	16	37	32	9	1,222,310	*
68		18	13		-	3	0		1.3		No								0	1	0	1	9	32	41	17	615,980
		19	14		-	1	0		1.4		No								0	1	0	1	9	32	40	17	697,393	*
67		18	14		-	2	0		0.5		No								0	1	0	0	4	23	44	27	1,372,576	*
66		17	14		-	3	0		0.2		No								0	0	0	0	2	15	44	39	1,384,123	*
65		17	15		-	2	0		0.1		No								0	0		0	1	9	39	51	1,355,965	*
64		16	15		-	3	0		0.0		No									0		0	0	5	33	62	1,285,965	*
63		16	16		-	2	0		0.0		No									0			0	2	25	72	1,182,738	*
62		15	16		-	3	0		0.0		No									0			0	1	19	80	1,052,778	*
61		15	17		-	2	0		Out		No												0	0	13	86	910,437	*
60		14	17		-	3	0		Out		No												0	0	9	91	760,635	*
59		14	18		-	2	0		Out		No												0	0	6	94	616,943	*
58		13	18		-	3	0		Out		No													0	4	96	483,589	*
57		13	19		-	2	0		Out		No													0	2	98	368,846	*
56		12	19		-	3	0		Out		No													0	1	99	270,255	*
55		12	20		-	2	0		Out		No													0	1	99	192,819	*
54		11	20		-	3	0		Out		No													0	1	99	132,218	*
53		11	21		-	2	0		Out		No														0	100	88,323	*
52		10	21		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	57,051	*
51		10	22		-	2	0		Out		No														0	100	35,534	*
50		9	22		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	21,317	*
49		9	23		-	2	0		Out		No														0	100	12,405	*
48		8	23		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	6,798	*
47		8	24		-	2	0		Out		No															100	3,620	*
46		7	24		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	1,851	*
29	-45								Out		No															100	3,372	*

Total:									9.8	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	1	3	8	14	22	42	19,376,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SC 7 WIC 1	+0.7
SAV 1 JAX 6	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SC vs WIC	+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
KC vs ALN	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
UTA vs RC	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28

97		34	0		-	0	0		44	42	12	1	0
92		31	2		-	1	0		17	17	33	33
91		30	2		-	2	0				23	46	31
90		30	3		-	1	0			3	19	34	22	13	9
89		29	3		-	2	0			1	12	26	34	22	4	1
88		29	4		-	1	0				3	14	30	34	13	6	0
87		28	4		-	2	0				2	7	23	34	24	9	1	0
86		28	5		-	1	0				0	3	11	29	31	20	5	2
85		27	5		-	2	0				0	1	5	17	29	29	14	5	1	0
84		26	5		-	3	0					0	1	7	20	30	24	13	4	0	0
83		26	6		-	2	0					0	0	2	9	23	30	22	10	3	1	0			0
82		25	6		-	3	0						0	0	3	11	24	29	21	9	2	0	0		0	0
81		25	7		-	2	0						0	0	1	4	12	24	28	20	8	2	0	0	0	0
80		24	7		-	3	0							0	0	1	4	13	24	29	19	7	1	0	1	0	0
79		24	8		-	2	0								0	0	1	4	13	25	29	18	6	1	2	1	0	0
78		23	8		-	3	0									0	0	1	4	14	27	28	16	3	4	3	1	0	0
77		23	9		-	2	0										0	0	1	5	16	28	26	10	5	6	3	1	0	0
76		22	9		-	3	0											0	0	1	6	19	30	21	4	9	7	3	0	0	0
75		22	10		-	2	0											0	0	0	2	8	24	30	2	9	13	8	3	1	0	0
74		21	10		-	3	0												0	0	0	3	14	32	1	6	14	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
73		21	11		-	2	0													0	0	1	6	28	0	2	10	18	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
72		20	11		-	3	0														0	0	2	20	0	1	4	13	21	21	12	4	1	0	0	0
71		20	12		-	2	0														0	0	1	12	0	0	1	6	16	24	22	13	4	1	0	0
70		19	12		-	3	0															0	0	7	0	0	0	2	8	18	26	23	12	4	1	0
69		19	13		-	2	0																0	3		0	0	0	3	10	21	28	22	10	3	0
68		18	13		-	3	0																0	1		0	0	0	1	4	12	25	29	20	7	1
67		18	14		-	2	0																0	1			0	0	0	1	6	16	29	29	15	3
66		17	14		-	3	0																0	0				0	0	0	2	9	23	34	25	7
65		17	15		-	2	0																0	0				0	0	0	1	4	15	32	35	15
64		16	15		-	3	0																	0					0	0	0	1	8	25	41	24
63		16	16		-	2	0																	0						0	0	0	4	18	42	36
62		15	16		-	3	0																	0						0	0	0	2	11	39	48
61		15	17		-	2	0																								0	0	1	6	33	60
60		14	17		-	3	0																									0	0	3	26	70
59		14	18		-	2	0																								0	0	0	2	20	79
58		13	18		-	3	0																										0	1	14	85
57		13	19		-	2	0																									0	0	0	10	90
56		12	19		-	3	0																											0	6	93
55		12	20		-	2	0																										0	0	4	96
54		11	20		-	3	0																											0	3	97
53		11	21		-	2	0																											0	2	98
52		10	21		-	3	0																											0	1	99
51		10	22		-	2	0																												1	99
50		9	22		-	3	0																												0	100
49		9	23		-	2	0																												0	100
48		8	23		-	3	0																												0	100
47		8	24		-	2	0																												0	100
46		7	24		-	3	0																												0	100
45		7	25		-	2	0																												0	100
44		6	25		-	3	0																													100
43		6	26		-	2	0																												1	99
29	-42																																			100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	17	24