Wichita Thunder Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 2.6%

29 points 12 21-5 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Brabham	100.0*	Average seed
SC 7 WIC 1	-1.4		No		-0.2
UTA 2 RC 3	-0.4				+0.1
KC 1 ALN 3	+0.4				+0.0
TUL 2 BOI 4	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Brabham	100.0*	Average seed
SC vs WIC	-0.7+0.1+0.1+1.1+1.2+1.2		NoNoNoNoNo+0.0		-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
UTA vs RC	+0.4-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.3
KC vs ALN	+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the WIC finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Brabham		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

97		34	0		-	0	0		In		0.5	%	8	37	43	12	0										5,482
86		27	4		-	3	0		In		No						100										1
85		27	5		-	2	0		In		No					40	20	40									5	*
84		26	5		-	3	0		In		No					27	47	20	7								15	*
83		25	5		-	4	0		In		No					23	44	28	5								43	*
82		25	6		-	3	0		In		No					13	32	36	19								88	*
81		24	6		-	4	0		In		No					5	22	41	27	4							209	*
80		24	7		-	3	0		In		No					1	13	33	42	11							526	*
79		23	7		-	4	0		99.4	%	No						7	27	46	20	1	0					1,175	*
78		23	8		-	3	0		99.1		No					0	2	16	49	32	1	0	0				2,441	*
77		22	8		-	4	0		98.0		No						1	8	42	47	1	1	0				5,174	*
76		22	9		-	3	0		96.4		No						0	3	34	59	2	1	0				9,877	*
75		21	9		-	4	0		93.3		No						0	1	24	68	2	3	1				18,926	*
74		21	10		-	3	0		89.3		No						0	0	16	73	2	5	3	0			34,531	*
73		20	10		-	4	0		83.4		No							0	10	74	2	8	7	0	0		61,089	*
72		20	11		-	3	0		75.3		No							0	6	70	2	10	13	1	0		102,558	*
71		19	11		-	4	0		66.2		No							0	3	63	1	11	20	2	0		168,252	*
70		19	12		-	3	0		55.6		No								1	54	1	10	29	4	0	0	265,866	*
69		18	12		-	4	0		44.4		No								1	44	0	8	38	9	1	0	405,325	*
68		18	13		-	3	0		33.5		No								0	33	0	6	43	16	2	0	596,116	*
67		17	13		-	4	0		23.7		No								0	24	0	4	44	24	4	0	852,014	*
66		17	14		-	3	0		15.5		No								0	16	0	2	40	33	8	1	1,169,736	*
65		16	14		-	4	0		9.4		No								0	9	0	1	33	40	15	1	1,559,649	*
64		16	15		-	3	0		5.2		No								0	5	0	0	25	44	23	3	2,006,862	*
63		15	15		-	4	0		2.6		No								0	3	0	0	16	42	32	7	2,497,796	*
62		15	16		-	3	0		1.1		No									1		0	10	37	40	12	3,009,337	*
61		14	16		-	4	0		0.4		No									0		0	5	28	46	20	3,509,418	*
60		14	17		-	3	0		0.1		No									0		0	2	20	48	30	3,947,233	*
59		13	17		-	4	0		0.0		No									0		0	1	13	46	40	4,301,961	*
58		13	18		-	3	0		0.0		No									0		0	0	8	41	52	4,525,406	*
57		12	18		-	4	0		0.0		No									0		0	0	4	34	62	4,605,190	*
56		12	19		-	3	0		0.0		No									0			0	2	26	71	4,526,486	*
55		11	19		-	4	0		0.0		No									0			0	1	20	79	4,302,504	*
54		11	20		-	3	0		Out		No												0	0	14	86	3,942,909	*
53		10	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	10	90	3,483,573	*
52		10	21		-	3	0		Out		No												0	0	6	93	2,968,530	*
51		9	21		-	4	0		Out		No													0	4	96	2,441,572	*
50		9	22		-	3	0		Out		No													0	3	97	1,930,663	*
49		8	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	2	98	1,472,289	*
48		8	23		-	3	0		Out		No													0	1	99	1,073,266	*
47		7	23		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	99	754,691	*
46		7	24		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	506,935	*
45		6	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	100	326,505	*
44		6	25		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	200,652	*
43		6	26		-	2	0		Out		No														0	100	117,536	*
42		5	26		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	65,214	*
41		5	27		-	2	0		Out		No														0	100	34,443	*
40		4	27		-	3	0		Out		No														0	100	17,302	*
39		4	28		-	2	0		Out		No														0	100	8,283	*
29	-38								Out		No															100	11,338	*

Total:									2.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	12	24	55	61,846,992

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SC 7 WIC 1	+0.3
UTA 2 RC 3	-0.1
KC 1 ALN 3	-0.1
SAV 1 JAX 6	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SC vs WIC	+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
ORL vs ATL	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
KC vs ALN	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28

97		34	0		-	0	0		0	7	26	39	22	5	0
86		27	4		-	3	0										100
85		26	4		-	4	0									20	60		20
84		26	5		-	3	0									20	7	33	33	7
83		25	5		-	4	0									2	21	35	33	9
82		25	6		-	3	0									1	16	25	24	25	9
81		24	6		-	4	0										3	22	24	28	17	5	0
80		24	7		-	3	0										1	5	21	29	31	12	2	0
79		23	7		-	4	0											3	9	26	34	21	7	0	0	1
78		23	8		-	3	0											0	3	14	34	33	13	2	0	0	0	0
77		22	8		-	4	0											0	1	6	23	38	24	6	0	1	0	0
76		22	9		-	3	0												0	2	14	33	36	12	0	2	1	0
75		21	9		-	4	0												0	1	6	24	40	23	0	2	3	1	0
74		21	10		-	3	0												0	0	2	14	38	35	0	2	5	3	0	0
73		20	10		-	4	0												0	0	1	7	29	47	0	2	7	7	1	0	0
72		20	11		-	3	0													0	0	3	18	54	0	1	7	11	4	1	0
71		19	11		-	4	0														0	1	10	56	0	1	6	15	9	3	0	0	0
70		19	12		-	3	0														0	0	4	51	0	0	4	15	16	7	2	0	0	0
69		18	12		-	4	0														0	0	1	43	0	0	2	12	21	15	5	1	0	0	0
68		18	13		-	3	0															0	0	33		0	1	8	21	23	11	3	0	0	0
67		17	13		-	4	0															0	0	24		0	0	4	16	27	20	8	2	0	0
66		17	14		-	3	0																0	16		0	0	1	10	24	27	16	5	1	0	0
65		16	14		-	4	0																0	9		0	0	0	5	18	29	25	11	3	0	0
64		16	15		-	3	0																0	5			0	0	2	10	25	30	20	7	1	0
63		15	15		-	4	0																0	3			0	0	1	5	17	30	28	14	3	0
62		15	16		-	3	0																	1			0	0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1
61		14	16		-	4	0																	0				0	0	1	4	15	30	31	15	3
60		14	17		-	3	0																	0				0	0	0	2	8	24	35	25	6
59		13	17		-	4	0																	0				0	0	0	0	4	16	34	34	12
58		13	18		-	3	0																	0					0	0	0	1	9	29	41	20
57		12	18		-	4	0																	0						0	0	0	4	21	43	31
56		12	19		-	3	0																	0						0	0	0	2	14	42	43
55		11	19		-	4	0																	0							0	0	1	8	37	54
54		11	20		-	3	0																								0	0	0	4	30	65
53		10	20		-	4	0																								0	0	0	2	23	75
52		10	21		-	3	0																									0	0	1	17	82
51		9	21		-	4	0																										0	0	12	88
50		9	22		-	3	0																										0	0	8	92
49		8	22		-	4	0																										0	0	5	95
48		8	23		-	3	0																										0	0	3	97
47		7	23		-	4	0																											0	2	98
46		7	24		-	3	0																											0	1	99
45		6	24		-	4	0																											0	1	99
44		6	25		-	3	0																												0	100
43		6	26		-	2	0																											0	0	100
42		5	26		-	3	0																												0	100
41		5	27		-	2	0																												0	100
40		4	27		-	3	0																												0	100
39		4	28		-	2	0																												0	100
38		3	28		-	3	0																												0	100
29	-37																																			100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	14	22	38