How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
St. John's 1 Utica 3 -7.6
-0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Providence vs Rochester+1.1+1.0+1.1-2.0-2.3-2.4
+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Hartford vs Toronto+1.5+1.5+1.2-1.3-1.0-1.0
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Syracuse vs Binghamton+0.4+0.3*+0.3*-0.5-0.7-0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. John's finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
115360-0In89.3%946456
102-106InNo10035*
101286-2InNo494248*
100287-1InNo941593*
99277-2InNo9218238*
98278-1InNo0842121460*
97268-2InNo8121700844*
96269-1InNo74223101,554*
95259-2InNo66229212,922*
942510-1InNo55139324,909*
932410-2InNo4714436008,551*
922411-1InNo360504100013,055*
912311-2InNo280525150021,114*
902312-1100.0%No1905252310031,083*
892212-2100.0No1404943211046,551*
882213-1100.0No8043342220063,970*
872113-299.9No537250230089,508*
862114-199.7No32815837000116,695*
852014-299.2No121160411100153,495*
842015-198.1No0140614181100187,467*
831915-296.3No090574262200230,970*
821916-193.0No0505033533000266,338*
811816-288.3No0304224146100309,905*
801817-181.1No01031147510300335,590*
791717-272.6No01024148615510367,969*
781718-161.2No001504662110200374,775*
771618-250.4No01004052516300388,480*
761619-137.5No0503342824610371,844*
751519-227.9No03025327311110361,279*
741520-117.6No1017123371830326,992*
731420-211.7No1011118382560298,651*
721421-16.1No060133733100253,951*
711321-23.7No04083239161218,896*
701322-11.4No01042543241175,058*
691222-20.8No01031942333142,134*
681223-10.2No0011240435106,042*
671123-20.1No00083450880,751*
661124-10.0No00427581256,113*
651024-20.0No00221601640,062*
641025-1OutNo0114632325,915*
63925-2OutNo0010612917,334*
62926-1OutNo05573810,442*
61826-2OutNo0354436,477*
60827-1OutNo247513,628*
59727-2OutNo144562,100*
58728-1OutNo033661,083*
57628-2OutNo03070606*
56629-1OutNo2377255*
55529-2OutNo1882114*
54530-1OutNo109060*
53430-2OutNo39729*
50-52OutNo10013*
43036-0OutNo0100456
Total:50.9%0.0%01050201243131511715,517,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. John's 1 Utica 3 +1.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Hartford vs Toronto-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Providence vs Rochester-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
115360-08956
105-106100
104294-38317
103295-25743
102296-13862
101286-2446482
100287-1544015
99277-242500062
98278-102460021111
97268-221601114300
96269-1126211185100
95259-28580118111110
942510-13520121182120
932410-2245011825125100
922411-11350015351273000
912311-20280011411495000
902312-1019064614121100000
892212-20140445041318001000
882213-18014203132911100000
872113-20513602113912310000
862114-1302801949135200000
852014-210210165413840000000
842015-1001400458041270110000
831915-2009025504151111110000
821916-1005014903171812211000
811816-2003014102172512431000000
801817-10100310115321355310000
791717-2010023011236026863100000
781718-1000150083802611106310000
771618-200100535015121410521000
761619-1005033000311161510520000
751519-203012400281518159410000
741520-110016001413202014731000
731420-210011000281621191262000
721421-100601412202319114100
711321-200400027152223168200
701322-1010003919252314510
691222-2001002513222620920
681223-10000271727271540
671123-20000141223302271
661124-100016173130122
651024-200013122735194
641025-100162138277
63925-200416373310
62926-100110334017
61826-2016284323
60827-102214631
59727-202164537
58728-11104148
57628-2073756
56629-142967
55529-222672
54530-11387
53430-21783
52431-1991
50-51100
43036-00100
Total:00010005001180161801246776543210