Peoria Rivermen Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Lost to Chicago 1-2 (ot), playoff odds down 1 to 41.7%

1 points 0 2-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 2 Peoria 1 (ot)	*-0.9		*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Peoria vs Rockford	+4.4+4.3+3.5*-0.6-1.4-5.2		+0.5+0.5+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Abbotsford vs Chicago			+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0
Rochester vs Grand Rapids			+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0
Milwaukee vs Charlotte			-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Peoria finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

108	-147						In		100															206	*
107		50	17		-	6	In		98	2														111	*
106		49	17		-	7	In		98	2														175	*
105		49	18		-	6	In		95	5														208	*
104		48	18		-	7	In		95	5		1												348	*
103		48	19		-	6	In		91	8		1												465	*
102		47	19		-	7	In		83	15	0	2												657	*
101		46	19		-	8	In		81	15	0	4												936	*
100		46	20		-	7	In		75	18	1	5	0											1,255	*
99		45	20		-	8	In		64	26	1	9	0											1,620	*
98		45	21		-	7	In		57	28	3	12	0											2,245	*
97		44	21		-	8	In		45	33	6	15	1											2,681	*
96		44	22		-	7	In		33	38	9	19	2	0										3,456	*
95		43	22		-	8	In		24	38	12	23	3	0										4,347	*
94		43	23		-	7	In		15	35	16	28	5	1	0									5,202	*
93		42	23		-	8	In		9	30	20	29	10	2	0									6,306	*
92		42	24		-	7	In		4	23	23	29	18	3	0	0								7,667	*
91		41	24		-	8	In		2	16	24	26	23	7	1	0								8,537	*
90		41	25		-	7	99.9	%	0	9	24	21	28	14	3	0	0							9,855	*
89		40	25		-	8	99.9		0	5	20	14	29	23	8	2	0	0						11,023	*
88		40	26		-	7	99.2		0	2	16	7	25	29	16	5	1	0	0					12,142	*
87		39	26		-	8	96.5		0	1	11	3	16	28	25	12	3	0	0	0				13,111	*
86		39	27		-	7	89.9			0	8	1	8	22	30	22	8	2	0	0	0			14,154	*
85		38	27		-	8	75.8			0	4	0	3	13	26	30	17	6	1	0				14,881	*
84		38	28		-	7	54.7				2	0	1	5	17	29	27	14	4	0	0			15,524	*
83		37	28		-	8	32.9				1	0	0	2	9	21	30	24	10	3	0	0		15,848	*
82		37	29		-	7	16.2				1		0	0	3	12	26	30	20	6	1	0		15,701	*
81		36	29		-	8	6.3				0		0	0	1	5	17	29	29	15	4	0	0	15,896	*
80		36	30		-	7	2.1				0			0	0	2	8	22	32	24	10	2	0	15,492	*
79		35	30		-	8	0.6				0			0	0	0	3	13	28	31	19	5	0	14,859	*
78		35	31		-	7	0.1								0	0	1	6	20	33	27	11	2	13,816	*
77		34	31		-	8	0.0									0	0	3	12	28	34	19	4	13,129	*
76		34	32		-	7	0.0									0	0	1	6	20	36	28	8	11,789	*
75		33	32		-	8	Out										0	0	3	13	33	37	14	10,850	*
74		33	33		-	7	Out										0	0	1	8	26	41	24	9,642	*
73		32	33		-	8	Out											0	0	4	20	44	33	8,482	*
72		32	34		-	7	Out											0	0	2	14	40	43	7,231	*
71		31	34		-	8	Out												0	1	9	37	53	6,105	*
70		31	35		-	7	Out												0	0	6	31	63	5,082	*
69		30	35		-	8	Out												0	0	3	27	70	4,255	*
68		30	36		-	7	Out													0	2	20	78	3,450	*
67		29	36		-	8	Out														1	16	83	2,820	*
66		29	37		-	7	Out														1	12	88	2,156	*
65		28	37		-	8	Out														0	8	91	1,697	*
64		28	38		-	7	Out															6	94	1,303	*
63		27	38		-	8	Out															4	96	982	*
62		27	39		-	7	Out															2	98	747	*
61		26	39		-	8	Out															1	99	547	*
60		26	40		-	7	Out															1	99	378	*
59		25	40		-	8	Out															1	99	260	*
58		25	41		-	7	Out															1	99	199	*
56	-57						Out																100	212	*
55		23	42		-	8	Out															2	98	43	*
1	-54						Out																100	113	*

Total:							41.7	%	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	11	320,196

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago 2 Peoria 1 (ot)	*+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Peoria vs Rockford	-0.9-1.0-0.7+0.1+0.3+1.1
Rochester vs Grand Rapids	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Houston vs Texas	+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0
Milwaukee vs Charlotte	+0.0+0.2+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0
Abbotsford vs Chicago	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

113	-147						100
112		51	13		-	9	90	10
109	-111						100
108		49	15		-	9	95	5
107		50	17		-	6	95	3	2
106		49	17		-	7	93	5	2
105		49	18		-	6	86	9	5
104		48	18		-	7	82	12	5				1
103		48	19		-	6	74	16	8				1
102		47	19		-	7	65	18	14	0	0		2
101		46	19		-	8	56	25	14	0	0		4	0
100		46	20		-	7	48	27	17	1	1		5		0
99		45	20		-	8	35	29	24	2	1		8	0	0
98		45	21		-	7	25	32	24	3	3		12	0	0
97		44	21		-	8	15	29	28	5	5	0	14	2	1
96		44	22		-	7	9	25	27	11	8	0	17	2	2		0
95		43	22		-	8	4	20	24	14	11	1	18	4	3	0	0
94		43	23		-	7	1	14	18	18	15	1	20	8	5	0	1		0
93		42	23		-	8	0	9	11	19	17	3	18	11	10	1	2	0	0
92		42	24		-	7	0	4	5	18	17	5	14	15	15	2	3	0	0		0
91		41	24		-	8		2	2	13	15	9	9	17	17	6	7	0	1		0
90		41	25		-	7		0	1	8	12	12	4	16	17	11	13	1	3	0	0		0
89		40	25		-	8		0	0	4	8	12	1	12	13	16	18	5	8	0	2	0	0	0
88		40	26		-	7		0	0	2	4	12	0	7	6	19	17	11	14	2	5	0	1	0	0
87		39	26		-	8		0		1	2	9	0	3	2	14	11	17	18	7	11	1	3	0	0	0
86		39	27		-	7				0	1	7		1	0	7	5	17	16	14	18	4	8	2	0	0	0
85		38	27		-	8				0	0	4		0	0	3	1	12	8	19	18	11	15	7	2	0	0
84		38	28		-	7					0	2		0		1	0	5	2	15	12	17	20	15	7	2	1	0			0
83		37	28		-	8					0	1		0		0	0	2	0	8	4	17	15	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
82		37	29		-	7					0	1				0		0	0	3	1	11	7	17	22	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
81		36	29		-	8						0				0		0		1	0	5	2	8	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0
80		36	30		-	7						0						0		0	0	2	0	2	7	15	21	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
79		35	30		-	8						0						0		0		0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
78		35	31		-	7														0		0	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	1	0
77		34	31		-	8																0			0	0	1	5	12	21	24	20	11	4	1	0
76		34	32		-	7																0				0	0	2	5	13	23	25	20	10	2	0
75		33	32		-	8																			0		0	0	2	6	15	24	27	18	7	1
74		33	33		-	7																					0	0	0	2	8	17	28	27	14	3
73		32	33		-	8																							0	1	3	11	23	31	23	7
72		32	34		-	7																						0	0	0	1	6	17	31	31	13
71		31	34		-	8																								0	0	3	10	28	37	21
70		31	35		-	7																									0	1	6	21	39	32
69		30	35		-	8																									0	0	3	16	38	43
68		30	36		-	7																										0	1	11	35	52
67		29	36		-	8																										0	1	7	30	62
66		29	37		-	7																											0	3	26	71
65		28	37		-	8																											0	2	20	79
64		28	38		-	7																												1	16	84
63		27	38		-	8																												0	11	89
62		27	39		-	7																												0	7	93
61		26	39		-	8																													5	95
60		26	40		-	7																												0	3	97
59		25	40		-	8																												0	2	97
58		25	41		-	7																													2	98
57		25	42		-	6																													1	99
56		24	42		-	7																													1	99
55		23	42		-	8																													2	98
1	-54																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	3	3	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5