Peoria Rivermen Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Chicago 1-2 (ot), playoff odds down 4.9 to 27.2%

1 points 0 2-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 2 Peoria 1 (ot)	*-0.2		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Peoria vs Rockford	+3.8+3.0+3.1-0.9-0.3-4.4		+0.4+0.3+0.4-0.1-0.0-0.5
Milwaukee vs Charlotte			-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Peoria finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

108	-147						In		100															61	*
107		50	17		-	6	In		93	7														30	*
106		49	17		-	7	In		97	3														35	*
105		48	17		-	8	In		94	3		3												62	*
104		48	18		-	7	In		92	8														111	*
103		47	18		-	8	In		84	12		4												143	*
102		47	19		-	7	In		78	15	0	6												221	*
101		46	19		-	8	In		76	19	1	4												326	*
100		46	20		-	7	In		70	22	1	7												451	*
99		45	20		-	8	In		60	27	2	10	0											605	*
98		45	21		-	7	In		52	31	3	13	1											896	*
97		44	21		-	8	In		37	38	6	17	1											1,165	*
96		43	21		-	9	In		29	39	9	21	2	0										1,562	*
95		43	22		-	8	In		21	39	13	23	4	0										1,971	*
94		42	22		-	9	In		13	34	18	28	6	1	0									2,632	*
93		42	23		-	8	In		8	29	22	28	12	2	0									3,226	*
92		42	24		-	7	In		4	22	24	28	17	4	0	0								4,033	*
91		41	24		-	8	In		1	14	25	25	24	9	1	0								4,913	*
90		41	25		-	7	99.9	%	0	8	25	20	29	15	3	0	0							6,031	*
89		40	25		-	8	99.8		0	4	20	13	29	23	9	2	0	0						7,047	*
88		39	25		-	9	99.2		0	2	16	7	24	29	17	5	1	0						8,292	*
87		39	26		-	8	96.8			0	11	3	16	29	26	12	3	0						9,341	*
86		39	27		-	7	90.3			0	7	1	7	22	31	21	8	2	0					10,700	*
85		38	27		-	8	75.9			0	5	0	3	12	27	29	18	6	1	0				11,860	*
84		37	27		-	9	56.4				2	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	4	0	0			13,016	*
83		37	28		-	8	34.6				1		0	2	9	22	31	23	9	2	0			13,958	*
82		36	28		-	9	18.0				1		0	1	4	13	27	30	18	6	1	0		14,912	*
81		36	29		-	8	7.5				0		0	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	3	0		15,654	*
80		35	29		-	9	2.6				0		0	0	0	2	10	24	32	22	8	1	0	16,075	*
79		35	30		-	8	0.8				0			0	0	1	4	15	29	31	16	4	0	16,099	*
78		34	30		-	9	0.1				0				0	0	1	8	22	33	25	9	1	16,039	*
77		34	31		-	8	0.0									0	0	3	14	30	33	16	3	15,996	*
76		33	31		-	9	Out										0	1	8	23	36	26	7	14,904	*
75		33	32		-	8	0.0									0	0	0	4	15	34	34	12	14,346	*
74		32	32		-	9	Out											0	2	10	30	40	19	13,424	*
73		32	33		-	8	Out										0	0	1	6	23	43	28	12,399	*
72		32	34		-	7	Out												0	3	17	43	37	11,291	*
71		31	34		-	8	Out												0	1	11	40	48	10,126	*
70		30	34		-	9	Out											0	0	1	7	35	57	8,854	*
69		30	35		-	8	Out													0	4	29	66	7,816	*
68		29	35		-	9	Out													0	3	24	73	6,626	*
67		29	36		-	8	Out													0	1	18	81	5,640	*
66		28	36		-	9	Out														1	15	84	4,593	*
65		28	37		-	8	Out													0	0	10	90	3,837	*
64		27	37		-	9	Out														0	8	92	3,008	*
63		27	38		-	8	Out														0	5	94	2,388	*
62		27	39		-	7	Out															4	96	1,807	*
61		26	39		-	8	Out															3	97	1,385	*
60		25	39		-	9	Out															2	98	1,078	*
59		25	40		-	8	Out															1	99	824	*
58		25	41		-	7	Out															1	99	558	*
57		24	41		-	8	Out															0	100	432	*
1	-56						Out																100	956	*

Total:							27.2	%	1	2	3	3	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	11	13	18	323,755

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago 2 Peoria 1 (ot)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Peoria vs Rockford	-0.8-0.7-0.8+0.2+0.1+1.0
Milwaukee vs Charlotte	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Norfolk vs Connecticut	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1-0.0
Houston vs Texas	+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0
Rochester vs Grand Rapids	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

108	-147						100
107		50	17		-	6	93		7
106		49	17		-	7	83	14	3
105		48	17		-	8	84	10	3				3
104		48	18		-	7	75	17	8
103		47	18		-	8	69	15	12				4
102		47	19		-	7	54	24	15		0		6
101		46	19		-	8	46	30	18	1	1		4
100		46	20		-	7	40	30	21	2	1		7
99		45	20		-	8	29	32	25	2	2		10		0
98		45	21		-	7	18	34	25	6	3		11	1	1
97		44	21		-	8	11	26	29	9	6	0	16	2	1
96		43	21		-	9	6	23	27	12	9	0	18	3	2		0
95		43	22		-	8	3	18	21	18	12	1	18	5	4	0	0
94		42	22		-	9	1	12	15	20	15	3	20	8	6	0	1		0
93		42	23		-	8	0	7	8	20	17	5	15	13	11	1	2	0	0
92		42	24		-	7	0	4	4	18	17	8	12	16	14	3	4	0	0		0
91		41	24		-	8	0	1	2	13	15	10	7	18	17	7	9	1	1		0
90		41	25		-	7		0	0	8	11	14	3	17	15	13	13	2	3	0	0		0
89		40	25		-	8		0	0	4	7	13	1	12	11	18	17	6	9	1	2	0	0	0
88		39	25		-	9		0	0	1	4	12	0	7	5	19	16	13	15	3	5	0	1	0
87		39	26		-	8				0	2	9	0	3	2	14	11	18	18	8	11	1	3	0	0
86		39	27		-	7				0	1	7		1	0	7	4	18	15	16	17	4	7	2	0	0
85		38	27		-	8				0	0	5		0	0	3	1	11	8	19	17	12	15	7	2	0	0
84		37	27		-	9					0	2		0	0	1	0	6	2	15	11	18	19	15	7	2	1	0	0
83		37	28		-	8						1				0		2	0	9	4	18	15	21	16	9	3	1	0	0
82		36	28		-	9					0	1				0		1	0	3	1	12	7	18	21	19	10	5	1	0	0	0
81		36	29		-	8						0				0		0		1	0	6	2	9	17	22	20	14	6	2	1	0
80		35	29		-	9						0				0		0		0	0	2	0	3	8	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
79		35	30		-	8						0						0		0	0	1	0	1	2	8	14	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
78		34	30		-	9						0								0		0	0	0	1	2	7	14	22	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
77		34	31		-	8																0		0	0	0	2	7	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0
76		33	31		-	9																			0	0	1	2	7	15	23	25	17	8	2	0
75		33	32		-	8																0				0	0	1	2	8	17	26	25	15	5	1
74		32	32		-	9																					0	0	1	3	10	20	28	24	12	2
73		32	33		-	8																						0	0	1	5	14	26	30	19	5
72		32	34		-	7																						0	0	0	2	8	21	32	27	10
71		31	34		-	8																							0	0	1	4	13	29	36	18
70		30	34		-	9																							0	0	0	2	8	24	40	26
69		30	35		-	8																									0	1	5	18	40	37
68		29	35		-	9																									0	0	2	12	39	47
67		29	36		-	8																										0	1	7	33	58
66		28	36		-	9																										0	1	4	30	65
65		28	37		-	8																										0	0	2	23	75
64		27	37		-	9																											0	2	18	81
63		27	38		-	8																											0	1	13	86
62		27	39		-	7																												0	9	90
61		26	39		-	8																												0	6	93
60		25	39		-	9																												0	5	95
59		25	40		-	8																													3	97
58		25	41		-	7																												0	2	98
57		24	41		-	8																													2	98
56		24	42		-	7																													1	99
55		23	42		-	8																														100
54		23	43		-	7																													1	99
1	-53																																			100

Total:							0	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	10