How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

TuesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Tucson vs Ontario-3.9-3.5-3.7+3.7+3.8+4.1
-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.4+0.4+0.4
Texas vs Manitoba-0.5-0.6-0.6+0.6+0.8+0.9
Hershey vs W-B/Scranton+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.1
Iowa vs Grand Rapids+0.0*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ontario finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
108-114InYes100420*
107313-1In73.3%871315*
106314-0In90.096450*
105304-1In80.0955130*
104305-0In75.69451316*
103295-1In65.189101584*
102296-0In60.1881111,294*
101286-1In45.4821612,303*
100276-2In38.7781934,590*
99277-1In26.5682757,257*
98267-2In20.862317013,163*
97268-1In12.15237110019,456*
96258-2In8.94539150032,866*
95259-1In3.93444211044,740*
94249-2In2.627462520068,686*
932410-1In0.8174731500087,578*
922310-2In0.41146339100125,109*
912311-1In0.04433516200150,532*
902211-2100.0%0.023735224000197,358*
892212-1100.0No12833317100221,700*
882112-2100.00.012229371011000272,644*
872113-1100.0No0142344163100289,168*
862013-299.9No01017442053000332,822*
852014-199.7No0510442596000331,759*
841914-299.2No03739261310010356,765*
831915-198.1No13312619171200335,471*
821815-295.9No122423222314000340,793*
811816-191.5No011518253228100300,414*
801716-285.5No0010132335413200286,727*
791717-174.6No004720386214000237,825*
781617-263.7No003415348288100214,444*
771618-146.6No11826103715200167,854*
761518-233.6No015171039234000142,323*
751519-117.3No00161038359100104,359*
741419-211.3No00147314014300083,221*
731420-14.4No0013214423610057,654*
721320-22.7No0021440291120043,289*
711321-10.7No01631371951027,921*
701221-20.4No00423362592019,935*
691222-10.1No01133333164011,986*
681122-20.0No00182634237108,081*
671123-1OutNo0316343113204,547*
661023-2OutNo0211293420402,795*
651024-1OutNo14213828801,461*
64924-2OutNo2163136140869*
63925-1OutNo162646210427*
62926-0OutNo042547222245*
61826-1OutNo2164138398*
60726-2OutNo54442955*
59727-1OutNo2965617*
58728-0OutNo93645911*
57628-1OutNo50502
56528-2OutNo50502*
44035-0OutNo298409
Total:84.9%0.4%21112221310132842100004,954,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

TuesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Tucson vs Ontario+0.8+0.7+0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8
Texas vs Manitoba+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
108-114100
107313-1731313
106314-09064
105304-180155
104305-0761951
103295-16524101
102296-06028111
101286-145371610
100276-2393919030
99277-1274127050
98267-22141310610
97268-112403609200
96258-2937390114000
95259-1430441147100
94249-2325442151020000
932410-11164331417500000
922310-201041511219010000
912311-10435872816020000
902211-202298629220310000
892212-111983293015210000
882112-201147226351741010000
872113-108612241396301000
862013-205511741410105030000
852014-102301039611149051000
841914-2012073361017130820100
831915-101032477191901341200
821815-20002177518220167104000
811816-10001962152412012207100
801716-20000642112211916401230000
791717-100220618117216018610000
781617-200120413213218022113000
771618-100017281910026197100
761518-2000141413101232613300000
751519-100011068118332372000
741419-2000004611331291331000
731420-100001216243420820000
721320-200001141732251351000
711321-1000182431211031000
701221-2000151727251572100
691222-100017212822136200
681122-2000151423241910410
671123-1015152624179310
661023-200410182521146100
651024-1003112227191241
64924-203615202720720
63925-100081731241351
62926-0081524272060
61826-1118112642101
60726-2241116421672
59727-124292918
58728-091836927
57628-1100
56528-25050
44035-00496
Total:028321019358100762064311000000000