How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Manchester 5 Providence 4 +1.6
+3.5
+0.3
Hartford 2 Lehigh Valley 1 (ot)-0.1
Norfolk 2 Bridgeport 1 +0.1
+0.1
Portland 4 Worcester 3 (ot)-0.1
Syracuse 3 Albany 2 +0.1
-0.4
Hershey 1 Springfield 2 (ot)-0.3
Binghamton 0 W-B/Scranton 3 -0.1
Adirondack 1 Utica 4 -0.4
Oklahoma City 3 Rockford 2 (ot)-0.2
Chicago 1 Iowa 5 +0.1
Rochester 2 Milwaukee 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Bridgeport vs Worcester*+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0
Charlotte vs San Antonio+0.3*+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Oklahoma City vs Rockford+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1
Toronto vs Milwaukee+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
Iowa vs Chicago+0.0*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Manchester finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy123456789101112131415Count
121-138In100.0%1006,990*
120377-4In99.810001,682*
119367-5In99.810003,278*
118368-4In99.91006,112*
117369-3In99.8100011,543*
116359-4In99.8100019,831*
115349-5In99.7100033,450*
1143410-4In99.6100055,027*
1133310-5In99.51000087,376*
1123311-4In99.21000136,034*
1113211-5In98.81000204,357*
1103212-4In98.19910298,428*
1093112-5In97.19910424,552*
1083113-4In95.499100587,504*
1073013-5In93.198200790,500*
1063014-4In89.8973001,038,186*
1052914-5In85.4955001,324,146*
1042915-4In79.3928001,649,472*
1032815-5In71.889110002,004,117*
1022816-4In62.684150002,374,661*
1012716-5In52.079210002,748,253*
1002717-4In40.7722711003,097,160*
992617-5In29.5633421003,413,766*
982618-4In19.4534232003,673,295*
972518-5In11.34349530003,856,753*
962519-4In5.63255940003,959,650*
952419-5In2.322581361003,972,782*
942420-4In0.7145619820003,888,644*
932320-5In0.2751261051003,723,063*
922321-4In0.0342331182003,485,021*
912221-5100.0%0.013138111351003,185,738*
902222-4100.00.0021409171020002,841,705*
892122-599.9No0123961917610002,485,639*
882022-699.6No0634316241430002,119,110*
872023-597.8No032711024231020001,766,345*
862024-491.9No1190418292071001,444,158*
851924-577.8No01201925291751001,148,539*
841925-455.2No07003152928133000894,619*
831825-530.9No04001620322510200679,532*
821826-413.1No020002102532217100504,780*
811726-54.3No1000314293117400365,799*
801727-41.1No000161933281120258,123*
791627-50.3No00021026352260178,519*
781628-40.1No000004163232132120,735*
771528-50.0No00018253723579,585*
761529-40.0No000031637341051,590*
751429-5OutNo001930421731,821*
741430-4OutNo00422462719,708*
731330-5OutNo00215453811,607*
721331-4OutNo01941496,808*
711231-5OutNo0534603,785*
701232-4OutNo00327702,113*
691132-5OutNo122771,191*
681133-4OutNo11882576*
671033-5OutNo1288279*
661034-4OutNo11189132*
65934-5OutNo79373*
42-64OutNo1005,458*
Total:95.6%21.6%36291444432211000065,083,700

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Manchester 5 Providence 4 -0.7
SundayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-138100
122386-41000
121387-3100
120377-41000
119367-51000
118368-41000
117369-31000
116359-41000
115349-51000
1143410-41000
1133310-5991
1123311-49910
1113211-59910
1103212-49820
1093112-59730
1083113-495500
1073013-593700
1063014-4901000
1052914-58514100
1042915-47919200
1032815-572253000
1022816-463316000
1012716-55237101000
1002717-44141153000
992617-53042226100
982618-41938291120000
972518-51131331861000
962519-462232251131000
952419-5212273019820000
942420-41617282615610000
932320-502920272313510000
922321-40031021262212410000
912221-5001411212521125100000
902222-400014112025211251000000
892122-500013101824221462000000
882022-60000138162323168310000
872023-5000002613212318103120000
862024-4000141119232011371000
851924-50001381622191015610000
841925-400000261219172215620000
831825-50000141016192416721000
821826-400013910212418931000
811726-50000143112024201251000
801727-400113101824221462000
791627-50001381724231562000
781628-4000001281724241672000
771528-5000027172525166100
761529-400012818262514510
751429-50013102128241130
741430-400141225302071
731330-5016173028143
721331-4002102435226
711231-501518343012
701232-40211293918
691132-5015224428
681133-4003184039
671033-50124147
661034-42103058
65934-542571
64935-41486
63936-32377
62836-42278
42-61100
Total:221512976543322211111100000000000