How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Manchester 4 Hartford 2 +0.2
+5.4
+0.3
Norfolk 1 Providence 3 -0.0
Worcester 6 St. John's 3 -0.1
Oklahoma City 2 San Antonio 4 +1.7
Syracuse 6 Albany 7 +1.0
Utica 0 Adirondack 4 +1.0
Binghamton 1 Hershey 5 -0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Portland vs Manchester-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
-7.3-1.4-1.4+5.0+6.2+6.1
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Hershey vs Albany-1.6-1.4-1.2+0.4+0.6+1.8
-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Oklahoma City vs San Antonio-1.3-1.4-1.1+0.4+0.4+1.5
Chicago vs Grand Rapids+0.5*+0.3*+0.1*-0.3-0.4-0.4
Syracuse vs Utica+0.2-0.4-0.7*-0.3-0.6*+0.1
Hartford vs W-B/Scranton+0.3*+0.1*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.2
Worcester vs St. John's-0.3*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.3
-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Manchester finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy123456789101112131415Count
112-119In100.0%1003,861*
111183-2In99.910004,457*
110184-1In99.710008,977*
109174-2In99.5100016,462*
108175-1In99.01000027,417*
107165-2In98.19910044,385*
106166-1In95.99820065,850*
105156-2In92.49640094,473*
104146-3In86.19370056,447
157-1In87.29360068,458*
103147-2In78.789110086,270
136-4In77.688110074,758*
102137-3In65.0801811115,125*
148-1In68.3831611076,664
101138-2In52.47225210116,797
127-4In51.17126210104,684*
100128-3In35.35935430111,591
139-1In36.66034430129,684*
99129-2In22.34742740132,173
118-4In20.0434385073,838
1310-0In22.7474275047,158*
98119-3In10.2314813800115,897
1210-1In11.1324713700133,502*
971110-2In4.22047211110123,821
109-4In3.81947221110114,766*
961010-3In1.01041301630099,901
1111-1In1.210423015300114,166*
951011-2In0.2532381870096,227
910-4In0.2430381981090,343*
94911-3In0.01194320152070,387
1012-1In0.01204320142081,887*
93912-2In0.001043182260062,683
811-4In0.00941182471057,832*
92812-3100.0%No043613291630089,744*
91813-2100.0No01267292881063,823*
90713-399.9No01632136203043,127*
89714-299.1No091113433101028,427*
88614-396.1No04042441234016,962*
87615-287.8No21123637111010,206*
86515-372.3No004244425305,464*
85516-249.1No11237401012,906*
84517-126.2No04224623401,370*
83417-212.1No1123839102678*
82418-15.2No528432040269*
81318-2OutNo15493051110*
80319-1OutNo428571146*
79219-2OutNo1142371119*
78220-1OutNo13888*
76121-1OutNo1001
73023-0OutNo1936459239
Total:99.7%31.6%4325157531100000002,884,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Manchester 4 Hartford 2 -0.6
Syracuse 6 Albany 7 -0.1
Utica 0 Adirondack 4 -0.1
Binghamton 1 Hershey 5 +0.0
Oklahoma City 2 San Antonio 4 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Portland vs Manchester+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Hershey vs Albany+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Grand Rapids-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
113-119100
112193-11000
111183-21000
110184-11000
109174-21000
108175-19910
107165-29820
106166-196400
105156-292700
104146-3861310
157-1871210
103147-27820200
102137-36530500
148-168284000
101138-25237910
127-4513710100
100128-3354219400
139-1374118400
99129-222402792000
118-420392910200
1310-02339279200
98119-31030341961000
1210-1113133185100
971110-24193228134100
109-43173129154100
1211-04193227134100
961010-317213025123100
1111-1182230241131000
951011-20210232922103000
910-4029222923113100
94911-300310222822113100
1012-100311232821103100
93912-2000310212722124100
92812-30002919262413510000
91813-20002717262515610000
90713-300161524261882000
89714-2001412222721103010
88614-3003920272311340
87615-200271726241111100
86515-301616262320610
85516-201515292417820
84517-101620172420930
83417-21116202822920
82418-1518213025710
81318-221330282332
80319-149373794
79219-25113732115
78220-1131375
76121-1100
73023-01623323070
Total:321913107543221110000000000000000