How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Providence 4 Springfield 5 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Utica vs Syracuse+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
-0.1-0.2-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Norfolk vs Charlotte-0.1-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
Binghamton vs St. John's+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2*-0.0
Lehigh Valley vs Springfield+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
Portland vs Worcester+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.0
Albany vs Hartford+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.0
Hershey vs W-B/Scranton+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.0
Rockford vs Iowa-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Adirondack vs Toronto-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Milwaukee vs Chicago-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1
Texas vs Oklahoma City+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Manchester finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy123456789101112131415Count
121-143In100.0%1005,493*
120459-5In99.81000423*
119449-6In99.61000760*
117-118In99.91004,342*
1164311-5In99.810004,866*
1154211-6In99.710008,014*
1144212-5In99.6100013,487*
1134112-6In99.5100021,661*
1124113-5In99.2100034,483*
1114013-6In98.8100053,677*
1104014-5In98.21000080,547*
1093914-6In97.310000119,379*
1083915-5In96.110000171,522*
1073815-6In94.299100241,710*
1063816-5In91.399100332,460*
1053716-6In87.598200448,582*
1043717-5In82.597300592,020*
1033617-6In76.095500765,563*
1023618-5In67.8937000966,657*
1013518-6In58.289100101,196,611*
1003519-5In47.584140101,452,864*
993419-6In36.278191201,729,230*
983319-7In25.4702514002,017,244*
973320-6In16.0603236002,306,180*
963220-7In8.84938580002,581,186*
953221-6In4.137438121002,839,984*
943121-7In1.62644121620003,059,994*
933122-6In0.41643172040003,235,251*
923022-7100.0%0.19372223910003,356,263*
913023-6100.00.0428262315300003,412,221*
902923-7100.00.0119282121810003,404,630*
892924-6100.00.001127162616410003,335,909*
882824-799.7No0523925241120003,206,980*
872825-698.6No02174182921710003,023,451*
862725-794.2No0111110252917510002,800,018*
852726-682.6No070415292713300002,543,367*
842626-762.0No040162031251120002,267,335*
832627-637.2No0200210243122820001,983,666*
822527-717.3No0100031327311861001,701,551*
812528-66.1No0000015173029144001,435,787*
802428-71.7No00001822322510201,188,353*
792429-60.4No0000031227331950961,998*
782329-70.1No000015183329122768,652*
772330-60.0No00002102736214599,114*
762230-70.0No000151836319460,747*
752231-60.0No000211313916345,851*
742131-7OutNo0016244425256,311*
732132-6OutNo0003174436184,964*
722032-7OutNo001114147131,699*
712033-6OutNo0017365791,685*
702034-5OutNo0004296762,857*
691934-6OutNo02237441,932*
681935-5OutNo01188127,557*
671835-6OutNo01138617,722*
661836-5OutNo00109010,984*
651736-6OutNo07926,907*
641737-5OutNo05954,256*
631637-6OutNo03972,544*
621638-5OutNo2981,416*
611538-6OutNo199879*
601539-5OutNo199475*
25-59OutNo1005,649*
Total:82.8%10.4%23171187665433221161,927,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Iowa 2 Milwaukee 1 (so)*-0.1
Toronto 1 Hamilton 5 *+0.0
WednesdayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-143100
122468-5991
121469-4100
120459-51000
119449-61000
1184410-51000
1174411-41000
1164311-51000
1154211-61000
1144212-51000
1134112-61000
1124113-5991
1114013-6991
1104014-59820
1093914-69730
1083915-59640
1073815-694600
1063816-591800
1053716-68812100
1043717-5831610
1033617-67622200
1023618-568284000
1013518-658347100
1003519-54839122000
993419-63641184000
983319-725402581000
973320-61635311441000
963220-79273321820000
953221-6418302715510000
943121-72922292211410000
933122-604132427199310000
923022-70161524251883100000
913023-6002615232417931000000
902923-70002615222317941000000
892924-6000026132123191141000000
882824-700001511192320136200000
872825-600001391622221582010000
862725-7000026132023189351000
852726-6000014101822189124100000
842626-700001371520161912510000
832627-60000251218182114620000
822527-700001412102023179310000
812528-60001531120231911510000
802428-700002131018232114620000
792429-60000013817232215720000
782329-7000001381623231682000
772330-600000127152324178200
762230-70000012716252516610
752231-600001391927251440
742131-70000131122292392
732132-600015152730184
722032-7000282233278
712033-6001415313515
702034-500028264024
691934-60015194234
681935-5002134044
671835-60183655
661836-50053164
651736-6032572
641737-5021979
631637-611386
621638-501189
611538-60793
601539-50595
591439-6397
581440-5397
571340-6694
25-56100
Total:1098766554443333222222111111000