Houston Aeros Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.008 to 42.6%

0 points 0 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs Texas	+4.4+3.6+4.1-1.3*-0.1-5.3		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1*-0.0-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

109	-148						In		100															148	*
108		50	16		-	8	In		98	1		1												81	*
107		50	17		-	7	In		99			1												129	*
106		50	18		-	6	In		97	2		1												190	*
105		49	18		-	7	In		96	2		1												281	*
104		49	19		-	6	In		94	5		1												353	*
103		48	19		-	7	In		92	5	0	3												543	*
102		47	19		-	8	In		85	11		4												766	*
101		47	20		-	7	In		80	16	1	3	0											987	*
100		46	20		-	8	In		75	19	1	5												1,295	*
99		46	21		-	7	In		67	22	2	9	0											1,768	*
98		45	21		-	8	In		56	29	3	12	0											2,294	*
97		45	22		-	7	In		46	33	5	15	1	0										2,829	*
96		44	22		-	8	In		35	37	8	19	2											3,593	*
95		44	23		-	7	In		24	38	11	24	4	0	0									4,483	*
94		43	23		-	8	In		15	35	15	28	6	1	0									5,266	*
93		43	24		-	7	In		9	30	19	30	10	1	0									6,310	*
92		42	24		-	8	In		4	22	22	30	18	4	0	0								7,560	*
91		42	25		-	7	100.0	%	2	15	23	28	24	8	1	0	0							8,848	*
90		41	25		-	8	99.9		1	9	21	21	29	14	4	0	0							10,110	*
89		41	26		-	7	99.8		0	5	19	14	30	22	9	2	0	0						11,309	*
88		40	26		-	8	99.1		0	2	14	8	25	29	16	5	1	0						12,247	*
87		40	27		-	7	97.0		0	1	10	3	16	30	25	11	3	0	0					13,422	*
86		39	27		-	8	90.2			0	6	1	8	22	31	21	8	2	0	0				14,232	*
85		39	28		-	7	76.9			0	4	0	3	13	28	29	17	5	1	0	0			14,898	*
84		38	28		-	8	56.0			0	2	0	1	5	18	30	27	13	4	1	0			15,519	*
83		38	29		-	7	33.3				1	0	0	2	8	22	31	24	10	2	0	0		15,632	*
82		37	29		-	8	16.6				0		0	1	3	12	26	30	19	7	1	0		15,927	*
81		37	30		-	7	6.0				0		0	0	1	5	17	30	28	15	4	0	0	15,819	*
80		36	30		-	8	2.2				0		0		0	2	9	22	32	24	10	2	0	15,298	*
79		36	31		-	7	0.5				0				0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	0	14,533	*
78		35	31		-	8	0.1									0	1	7	19	33	28	11	1	13,538	*
77		35	32		-	7	0.1				0				0	0	0	2	12	28	35	19	4	12,787	*
76		34	32		-	8	0.0									0	0	1	6	21	36	28	7	11,863	*
75		34	33		-	7	0.0									0	0	0	3	14	33	36	14	10,635	*
74		33	33		-	8	0.0									0	0	0	1	8	27	42	22	9,294	*
73		32	33		-	9	Out											0	0	4	20	43	32	8,236	*
72		32	34		-	8	Out											0	0	2	14	41	43	7,173	*
71		32	35		-	7	Out											0	0	1	9	37	53	6,102	*
70		31	35		-	8	Out													1	5	33	62	4,974	*
69		30	35		-	9	Out													0	3	27	70	4,145	*
68		30	36		-	8	Out													0	2	19	78	3,430	*
67		30	37		-	7	Out														1	16	83	2,765	*
66		29	37		-	8	Out														1	12	88	2,126	*
65		29	38		-	7	Out														0	9	91	1,677	*
64		28	38		-	8	Out														0	6	94	1,323	*
63		28	39		-	7	Out															5	95	950	*
62		27	39		-	8	Out														0	3	97	734	*
61		27	40		-	7	Out															3	97	567	*
60		26	40		-	8	Out															1	99	382	*
59		25	40		-	9	Out															1	99	259	*
58		26	42		-	6	Out															1	99	168	*
56	-57						Out																100	201	*
55		24	43		-	7	Out															1	99	67	*
0	-54						Out																100	130	*

Total:							42.6	%	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	8	8	9	10	320,196

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs Texas	-0.9-0.7-0.8+0.3+0.1+1.1
Milwaukee vs Charlotte	-0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

111	-148						100
110		51	15		-	8	97	3
109		52	17		-	5	98	2
108		50	16		-	8	94	4	1				1
107		50	17		-	7	96	3					1
106		50	18		-	6	92	6	2				1
105		49	18		-	7	88	8	2				1
104		49	19		-	6	86	8	5				1
103		48	19		-	7	79	13	5		0		3
102		47	19		-	8	69	16	11				4	0
101		47	20		-	7	57	23	16	0	1		3		0
100		46	20		-	8	49	27	18	1	1		5
99		46	21		-	7	39	28	20	2	2		8	0	0
98		45	21		-	8	26	30	26	3	3		11	1	0
97		45	22		-	7	16	31	27	6	5	0	14	1	1		0
96		44	22		-	8	9	26	28	9	7	0	16	2	2	0
95		44	23		-	7	4	20	25	13	10	1	20	4	4		0		0
94		43	23		-	8	2	13	18	17	14	1	21	8	6	0	1		0
93		43	24		-	7	0	8	11	19	16	3	19	11	10	1	1	0	0
92		42	24		-	8	0	4	6	16	17	5	14	15	16	2	3	0	0		0
91		42	25		-	7	0	2	2	13	15	8	9	18	19	5	7	0	1		0		0
90		41	25		-	8		1	1	9	11	10	5	17	18	11	13	1	3	0	0	0	0
89		41	26		-	7		0	0	5	7	12	2	12	13	16	18	4	8	0	2	0	0	0
88		40	26		-	8		0	0	2	4	10	0	7	6	19	18	11	14	2	5	0	1	0
87		40	27		-	7		0		1	2	8	0	3	2	14	12	17	19	6	11	1	3	0	0
86		39	27		-	8				0	1	6	0	1	0	7	5	17	17	14	18	3	8	2	0	0
85		39	28		-	7				0	0	3		0	0	3	1	12	9	19	19	10	15	6	2	0	0	0
84		38	28		-	8				0	0	2		0		1	0	5	3	15	13	17	20	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
83		38	29		-	7					0	1		0		0	0	2	0	8	5	17	16	21	17	8	3	1	0	0
82		37	29		-	8						0				0	0	1	0	3	1	11	8	17	22	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
81		37	30		-	7						0				0		0		1	0	5	2	8	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
80		36	30		-	8						0				0				0	0	2	0	2	7	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
79		36	31		-	7						0								0		0	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
78		35	31		-	8																0		0	0	2	6	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
77		35	32		-	7						0								0		0		0	0	0	2	5	13	21	24	20	11	4	1	0
76		34	32		-	8																0			0	0	0	2	6	13	22	26	19	9	3	0
75		34	33		-	7																0				0	0	0	2	6	15	26	26	18	6	1
74		33	33		-	8																0					0	0	0	2	8	19	28	26	13	3
73		32	33		-	9																							0	1	4	11	24	31	21	7
72		32	34		-	8																							0	0	2	6	18	31	31	13
71		32	35		-	7																								0	0	3	12	27	37	21
70		31	35		-	8																								0	0	1	6	22	40	30
69		30	35		-	9																									0	0	3	16	39	41
68		30	36		-	8																									0	0	2	10	36	53
67		30	37		-	7																										0	1	5	30	64
66		29	37		-	8																											0	4	26	70
65		29	38		-	7																												2	20	78
64		28	38		-	8																												1	14	85
63		28	39		-	7																												0	10	90
62		27	39		-	8																												0	8	91
61		27	40		-	7																												0	6	93
60		26	40		-	8																													3	97
59		25	40		-	9																													2	98
58		26	42		-	6																													4	96
57		25	42		-	7																													1	99
56		24	42		-	8																														100
55		24	43		-	7																													1	99
54		23	43		-	8																													4	96
0	-53																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5