Connecticut Whale Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 43%

0 points 0 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Norfolk vs Connecticut	-5.2*-0.7-1.0+4.2+4.4+4.3		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.4+0.4
Springfield vs W-B/Scranton			+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0
St. John's vs Adirondack			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Albany vs Syracuse			+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Connecticut finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

109	-148						In		100															167	*
108		49	15		-	10	In		98	2														58	*
107		50	17		-	7	In		99			1												106	*
106		49	17		-	8	In		98	2														179	*
105		49	18		-	7	In		96	3		1												250	*
104		48	18		-	8	In		91	8	0	1												423	*
103		48	19		-	7	In		92	6	0	3												535	*
102		47	19		-	8	In		88	9		3												752	*
101		47	20		-	7	In		83	12	0	5												979	*
100		47	21		-	6	In		72	20	1	7	0											1,277	*
99		46	21		-	7	In		67	23	1	9	0											1,752	*
98		45	21		-	8	In		57	27	2	13	1											2,316	*
97		45	22		-	7	In		45	32	5	17	1											2,905	*
96		44	22		-	8	In		35	35	8	21	2	0										3,716	*
95		44	23		-	7	In		25	35	10	26	4	0										4,538	*
94		43	23		-	8	In		17	34	13	28	7	1	0									5,384	*
93		43	24		-	7	In		9	29	18	31	12	2	0									6,420	*
92		42	24		-	8	In		4	23	20	31	18	4	0	0								7,548	*
91		42	25		-	7	100.0	%	2	15	21	28	24	8	1	0	0							8,805	*
90		41	25		-	8	100.0		0	9	20	22	30	15	3	0	0	0						9,965	*
89		41	26		-	7	99.8		0	5	18	14	30	23	8	1	0	0						11,081	*
88		40	26		-	8	99.1		0	2	15	8	25	29	15	5	1	0						12,390	*
87		40	27		-	7	97.0			1	11	3	17	29	25	11	3	0	0					13,250	*
86		39	27		-	8	90.9			0	7	1	8	23	31	20	7	2	0	0				14,217	*
85		39	28		-	7	77.6			0	5	0	3	14	28	28	16	5	1	0				14,887	*
84		38	28		-	8	57.9				3	0	1	6	19	29	26	12	3	1	0			15,413	*
83		38	29		-	7	35.8			0	2	0	0	2	9	23	31	22	9	2	0	0		15,654	*
82		37	29		-	8	17.9				1	0	0	0	4	13	27	30	18	6	1	0	0	15,688	*
81		37	30		-	7	7.1				0		0	0	1	6	17	30	28	14	3	0	0	15,720	*
80		36	30		-	8	2.3				0		0		0	2	9	23	32	23	9	2	0	15,043	*
79		36	31		-	7	0.5				0			0	0	0	4	14	29	31	17	5	0	14,642	*
78		35	31		-	8	0.2				0				0	0	1	7	21	33	27	10	1	13,711	*
77		35	32		-	7	0.1				0					0	0	3	13	28	34	18	3	12,869	*
76		34	32		-	8	0.0									0	0	1	6	22	36	27	7	11,751	*
75		34	33		-	7	Out										0	0	3	15	33	36	13	10,610	*
74		33	33		-	8	Out											0	1	9	28	41	21	9,349	*
73		33	34		-	7	Out											0	1	5	20	44	30	8,296	*
72		32	34		-	8	Out												0	2	15	41	41	7,195	*
71		32	35		-	7	Out												0	1	10	38	51	6,116	*
70		31	35		-	8	Out												0	0	6	33	61	5,141	*
69		31	36		-	7	Out												0	0	4	27	69	4,188	*
68		30	36		-	8	Out													0	2	22	76	3,474	*
67		29	36		-	9	Out													0	1	15	84	2,812	*
66		29	37		-	8	Out														0	10	89	2,172	*
65		29	38		-	7	Out														0	9	91	1,703	*
64		28	38		-	8	Out															6	94	1,252	*
63		27	38		-	9	Out														0	3	97	958	*
62		27	39		-	8	Out															3	97	739	*
61		27	40		-	7	Out															2	98	514	*
60		26	40		-	8	Out															2	98	384	*
59		26	41		-	7	Out															1	99	283	*
58		26	42		-	6	Out															0	100	207	*
57		25	42		-	7	Out															2	98	124	*
0	-56						Out																100	288	*

Total:							43.0	%	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	10	320,196

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Norfolk vs Connecticut	+1.1+0.1+0.2-0.9-0.8-0.9
Springfield vs W-B/Scranton	+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.0*-0.0-0.0
St. John's vs Adirondack	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Albany vs Syracuse	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

109	-148						100
108		49	15		-	10	98		2
107		50	17		-	7	93	6					1
106		49	17		-	8	93	4	2
105		49	18		-	7	87	9	3				1
104		48	18		-	8	79	12	8		0		1
103		48	19		-	7	76	16	6		0		3
102		47	19		-	8	70	17	9	0			3
101		47	20		-	7	59	24	11	0	0		5
100		47	21		-	6	46	26	19	1	1		7	0	0
99		46	21		-	7	38	29	21	2	1	0	9	0	0
98		45	21		-	8	26	31	24	3	2	0	12	1	1
97		45	22		-	7	15	31	26	6	5	0	16	1	1
96		44	22		-	8	8	27	26	9	7	0	19	2	2		0
95		44	23		-	7	4	21	21	13	10	1	21	5	4	0	0
94		43	23		-	8	2	15	17	17	12	1	20	8	7	0	1		0
93		43	24		-	7	0	9	11	18	14	3	20	11	11	1	2		0
92		42	24		-	8	0	4	6	18	15	5	16	15	16	2	4	0	0		0
91		42	25		-	7	0	2	2	13	13	8	9	19	19	6	8	0	1	0	0		0
90		41	25		-	8		0	1	9	10	10	5	17	19	11	14	1	3	0	0		0	0
89		41	26		-	7		0	0	5	6	12	1	13	13	17	18	5	8	0	1	0	0	0
88		40	26		-	8		0	0	2	4	11	0	8	7	18	18	11	14	2	5	0	1	0
87		40	27		-	7				1	2	9	0	3	2	14	12	17	19	6	10	1	3	0	0
86		39	27		-	8				0	1	7		1	0	8	5	18	17	14	17	4	7	2	0	0
85		39	28		-	7				0	0	4		0	0	3	1	13	9	19	18	10	14	6	2	0	0
84		38	28		-	8					0	3		0		1	0	5	3	16	12	17	18	14	7	2	0	0	0
83		38	29		-	7				0	0	2		0		0	0	2	0	9	5	18	15	20	16	9	4	1	0	0
82		37	29		-	8						1		0		0		0	0	4	1	12	7	17	21	19	11	5	2	0	0
81		37	30		-	7						0				0		0	0	1	0	6	2	8	16	22	21	14	7	2	1	0
80		36	30		-	8						0				0				0	0	2	0	2	7	15	22	22	16	8	3	1	0
79		36	31		-	7						0						0		0		0	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	9	4	1	0	0	0
78		35	31		-	8						0								0		0		0	0	2	6	12	21	23	20	11	4	1	0	0
77		35	32		-	7						0										0		0	0	0	2	5	12	21	24	20	10	4	1	0
76		34	32		-	8																0			0	0	0	2	6	13	22	25	20	9	2	0
75		34	33		-	7																					0	1	2	7	15	25	27	17	7	1
74		33	33		-	8																						0	1	3	8	19	28	25	13	3
73		33	34		-	7																						0	0	1	4	12	24	30	23	7
72		32	34		-	8																							0	0	1	7	17	31	31	13
71		32	35		-	7																								0	0	3	11	29	36	20
70		31	35		-	8																								0	0	1	6	22	39	31
69		31	36		-	7																									0	0	3	15	40	41
68		30	36		-	8																										0	2	11	35	52
67		29	36		-	9																											1	6	29	64
66		29	37		-	8																											0	3	25	72
65		29	38		-	7																											0	2	19	78
64		28	38		-	8																												1	13	86
63		27	38		-	9																												0	9	90
62		27	39		-	8																												0	8	92
61		27	40		-	7																												0	5	95
60		26	40		-	8																													3	97
59		26	41		-	7																													2	98
58		26	42		-	6																													1	99
57		25	42		-	7																													2	98
56		25	43		-	6																													1	99
51	-55																																			100
50		21	45		-	8																													14	86
0	-49																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5