Connecticut Whale Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 35.6%

0 points 0 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Norfolk vs Connecticut	-4.8-0.6-0.7+3.9+4.1+4.4		-0.5-0.0-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Albany vs Syracuse			+0.0-0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.1+0.0
Hamilton vs Toronto			-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Connecticut finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

108	-148						In		100															149	*
107		50	17		-	7	In		97	3														74	*
106		50	18		-	6	In		96	2		2												107	*
105		48	17		-	9	In		93	6		1												154	*
104		48	18		-	8	In		90	10		0												213	*
103		48	19		-	7	In		85	11	1	3												349	*
102		47	19		-	8	In		82	14		4												487	*
101		47	20		-	7	In		76	17	0	6												612	*
100		46	20		-	8	In		69	19	1	11												842	*
99		46	21		-	7	In		62	25	2	11	0											1,217	*
98		45	21		-	8	In		51	28	3	17	1											1,561	*
97		45	22		-	7	In		41	34	4	20	1	0										1,998	*
96		44	22		-	8	In		29	35	7	24	3	0	0									2,631	*
95		44	23		-	7	In		21	33	10	30	6	0										3,261	*
94		43	23		-	8	In		14	31	13	32	10	1	0									4,074	*
93		43	24		-	7	In		7	26	16	33	15	2	0	0								4,990	*
92		42	24		-	8	In		3	19	19	32	22	5	1	0								5,918	*
91		42	25		-	7	100.0	%	1	12	19	26	28	10	2	0	0							7,093	*
90		41	25		-	8	100.0		0	8	18	21	31	18	4	1	0							8,321	*
89		41	26		-	7	99.7		0	4	15	13	31	25	10	2	0							9,552	*
88		40	26		-	8	98.9			2	12	6	24	31	19	6	1	0						10,514	*
87		40	27		-	7	96.4			0	8	3	15	30	27	13	3	0	0					11,668	*
86		39	27		-	8	89.6			0	5	1	8	22	31	23	8	2	0	0				12,939	*
85		39	28		-	7	75.9			0	3	0	3	13	26	30	17	6	1	0				13,809	*
84		38	28		-	8	56.1			0	2	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	3	0	0			14,478	*
83		37	28		-	9	35.0				1	0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0		15,281	*
82		37	29		-	8	17.2				0		0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	1	0		15,687	*
81		37	30		-	7	7.5				0		0	0	1	6	19	30	27	13	3	0	0	15,884	*
80		36	30		-	8	2.4				0			0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0	15,826	*
79		36	31		-	7	0.8				0				0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	0	15,704	*
78		35	31		-	8	0.2				0				0	0	1	8	22	33	25	9	1	15,067	*
77		34	31		-	9	0.0							0		0	0	3	14	30	33	16	3	14,658	*
76		34	32		-	8	0.0								0		0	1	8	24	36	25	6	13,530	*
75		33	32		-	9	Out										0	0	4	17	34	34	10	12,378	*
74		33	33		-	8	Out											0	2	10	30	39	19	11,365	*
73		32	33		-	9	Out											0	1	5	24	44	27	10,154	*
72		32	34		-	8	Out											0	0	3	17	42	37	9,040	*
71		31	34		-	9	Out										0		0	1	12	39	48	7,862	*
70		31	35		-	8	Out													1	7	34	58	6,752	*
69		30	35		-	9	Out													0	4	30	65	5,600	*
68		30	36		-	8	Out												0	0	2	22	75	4,715	*
67		29	36		-	9	Out														1	18	81	3,860	*
66		29	37		-	8	Out													0	1	14	85	3,121	*
65		29	38		-	7	Out														0	10	90	2,525	*
64		28	38		-	8	Out														0	8	92	1,960	*
63		27	38		-	9	Out														0	5	95	1,547	*
62		27	39		-	8	Out														0	3	97	1,163	*
61		26	39		-	9	Out															3	97	863	*
60		26	40		-	8	Out															1	99	666	*
59		26	41		-	7	Out															2	98	447	*
58		25	41		-	8	Out															1	99	343	*
57		24	41		-	9	Out															0	100	228	*
56		24	42		-	8	Out															1	99	176	*
55		23	42		-	9	Out															1	99	105	*
54		24	44		-	6	Out															1	99	76	*
0	-53						Out																100	161	*

Total:							35.6	%	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	10	11	13	323,755

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Norfolk vs Connecticut	+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.9-0.9
St. John's vs Adirondack	-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Springfield vs W-B/Scranton	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

115	-148						100
114		53	13		-	8	75	25
109	-113						100
108		50	16		-	8	96	4
107		50	17		-	7	93	4	3
106		50	18		-	6	88	8	2				2
105		48	17		-	9	84	9	6				1
104		48	18		-	8	77	13	10				0
103		48	19		-	7	67	18	11		1		3
102		47	19		-	8	57	24	14	0			4
101		47	20		-	7	51	25	17	0	0		6
100		46	20		-	8	38	31	18	2	1		11	0
99		46	21		-	7	30	32	23	3	2		11	0	0
98		45	21		-	8	19	32	24	3	3		16	1	1
97		45	22		-	7	12	29	25	8	4	0	19	1	1		0
96		44	22		-	8	6	23	25	10	7	0	21	4	3	0	0		0
95		44	23		-	7	3	18	20	14	9	1	24	6	6	0	0
94		43	23		-	8	1	13	14	17	11	2	22	10	9	0	1		0
93		43	24		-	7	0	7	8	18	12	4	20	13	14	1	2		0		0
92		42	24		-	8	0	3	4	14	13	6	14	18	19	3	5	0	1		0
91		42	25		-	7	0	1	2	11	12	8	8	18	21	7	9	1	2		0		0
90		41	25		-	8		0	0	7	8	9	4	17	19	12	16	2	4	0	1		0
89		41	26		-	7		0	0	4	5	10	1	12	13	18	20	6	10	1	2		0	0
88		40	26		-	8			0	2	3	9	0	6	6	18	19	12	17	2	5	0	1	0
87		40	27		-	7				0	1	7	0	3	2	13	12	18	19	8	12	1	3	0	0	0
86		39	27		-	8				0	0	5		1	0	7	5	18	16	14	19	4	8	2	0	0
85		39	28		-	7				0	0	3		0	0	3	1	12	8	18	20	11	15	7	2	0	0	0
84		38	28		-	8				0	0	2		0	0	1	0	6	3	15	12	18	20	15	7	2	0	0	0
83		37	28		-	9					0	1		0		0	0	2	0	8	5	18	16	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
82		37	29		-	8						0				0		0	0	3	1	12	8	18	22	18	11	4	1	0	0
81		37	30		-	7						0				0		0		1	0	6	3	10	18	22	20	13	5	2	0	0
80		36	30		-	8						0						0		0	0	2	1	3	9	17	23	21	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
79		36	31		-	7						0								0		1	0	1	3	8	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0
78		35	31		-	8						0								0		0		0	1	3	8	15	23	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
77		34	31		-	9												0				0		0	0	1	2	7	15	23	24	17	8	3	0	0
76		34	32		-	8														0					0	0	0	3	7	16	24	25	16	7	2	0
75		33	32		-	9																			0	0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	4	1
74		33	33		-	8																				0		0	1	4	11	21	28	22	10	2
73		32	33		-	9																						0	0	1	5	15	27	29	18	5
72		32	34		-	8																						0	0	0	2	9	21	31	26	9
71		31	34		-	9																							0	0	1	4	15	30	34	16
70		31	35		-	8																									0	2	9	24	38	27
69		30	35		-	9																									0	1	4	20	41	35
68		30	36		-	8																									0	0	2	13	38	46
67		29	36		-	9																										0	1	9	34	56
66		29	37		-	8																											1	6	27	66
65		29	38		-	7																											0	3	23	74
64		28	38		-	8																											0	2	21	77
63		27	38		-	9																												1	15	85
62		27	39		-	8																												1	10	90
61		26	39		-	9																												0	8	91
60		26	40		-	8																												0	5	95
59		26	41		-	7																													4	96
58		25	41		-	8																													3	97
57		24	41		-	9																													1	99
56		24	42		-	8																													1	99
55		23	42		-	9																													2	98
54		24	44		-	6																													1	99
51	-53																																			100
50		21	45		-	8																													5	95
0	-49																																			100

Total:							1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	7