How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Manchester 5 Worcester 1 +0.1
-0.2
Utica 3 Hamilton 2 -0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Springfield vs Bridgeport-2.1-0.4-0.4+1.1+1.3+1.4
-2.2-0.6-0.6+1.3+1.5+1.5
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Adirondack vs Syracuse+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Norfolk vs Portland+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Albany vs W-B/Scranton+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0
Providence vs Hartford+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0
Binghamton vs Manchester-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Lehigh Valley vs Worcester+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0
Rochester vs Utica+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Rockford vs Iowa-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Milwaukee vs Chicago+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bridgeport finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy123456789101112131415Count
125-143In100.0%10070,045*
124508-3In99.710005,862*
123498-4In99.810011,432*
122488-5In99.7100021,533*
121489-4In99.5100039,707*
120479-5In99.3100069,581*
1194710-4In99.01000120,562*
1184610-5In98.510000203,052*
1174611-4In97.810000330,936*
1164511-5In96.810000524,281*
1154512-4In95.410000813,037*
1144412-5In93.499101,227,035*
1134413-4In90.9991001,800,969*
1124313-5In87.6982002,581,999*
1114314-4In83.4972003,623,094*
1104214-5In78.39640004,957,113*
1094114-6In72.0955006,635,710*
1084115-5In64.89370008,675,872*
1074015-6In56.890901011,107,882*
1064016-5In48.1871201013,918,173*
1053916-6In39.1821602017,055,211*
1043917-5In30.27720020020,475,114*
1033817-6In22.17125140024,076,545*
1023818-5In15.16430150027,739,764*
1013718-6In9.55635270031,311,219*
1003719-5In5.447393100034,652,684*
993619-6In2.7384351410037,608,681*
983620-5In1.2294571810040,015,576*
973520-6In0.420441023300041,760,408*
963521-5In0.113411327500042,757,537*
953421-6In0.08351631910042,958,134*
943422-5100.0%0.0428193314200042,356,095*
933322-6100.00.0220203321400040,979,361*
923323-5100.00.01131929288100038,923,324*
913223-6100.00.00817233315300036,298,598*
903224-5100.0No04141634247100033,222,146*
893124-699.7No021010303114300029,856,737*
883125-598.9No01752234237100026,348,198*
873025-696.2No004213313115300022,844,693*
863026-589.7No02162234249100019,431,740*
852926-677.5No010213293217510016,249,367*
842927-559.8No0101620332711200013,341,451*
832827-639.9No0000211273320610010,757,633*
822828-522.6No0000151732291330008,521,835*
812728-610.8No00002925342371006,631,972*
802729-54.3No000004163231143005,063,272*
792629-61.5No00000182535237103,800,527*
782630-50.5No00000416333213202,800,691*
772530-60.1No0000019273621502,028,735*
762531-50.0No0000041936301011,442,017*
752431-60.0No00021232361621,006,887*
742432-50.0No00172539245691,161*
732332-60.0No00031839328464,125*
722333-50.0No000211353913306,424*
712233-6OutNo0017294319199,616*
702234-5OutNo0004234527127,700*
692134-6OutNo00217453578,929*
682135-5OutNo00112424449,306*
672035-6OutNo018395229,451*
662036-5OutNo006336117,187*
651936-6OutNo03286810,015*
641937-5OutNo0223755,678*
631837-6OutNo0119803,135*
621838-5OutNo114851,715*
611738-6OutNo11090933*
601739-5OutNo0892520*
591639-6OutNo0892263*
581640-5OutNo199132*
21-57OutNo10064,863*
Total:93.7%8.5%2521815107532211000781,105,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Springfield vs Bridgeport+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-143100
128526-3991
126-127100
125507-41000
124508-31000
123498-41000
122488-51000
121489-41000
120479-5991
1194710-49910
1184610-59910
1174611-49820
1164511-59730
1154512-495500
1144412-593600
1134413-491900
1124313-5881200
1114314-48316100
1104214-57820100
1094114-67225200
1084115-56531400
1074015-657367000
1064016-5484010100
1053916-63943152000
1043917-530442140000
1033817-622432771000
1023818-5153832122000
1013718-6932361841000
1003719-55243625820000
993619-631632301441000
983620-519263321820000
973520-60518302814410000
963521-502102430229200000
953421-601516272716610000
943422-500282028241341000000
933322-6001311232721103100000
923323-50001514242618931000000
913223-60000261624251782100000
903224-50000271624241672000000
893124-60000028172423167200000
883125-5000138172323157201000
873025-60000138162323157130000
863026-500001271523221458200000
852926-6000002715222111166100000
842927-50000261420172113510000
832827-600000261418212112410000
822828-500000261415242111410000
812728-60000028819252012410000
802729-500001431020252012410000
792629-600001141221252011410000
782630-500000151221252010410000
772530-6000000151323251993000
762531-5000000261524251772000
752431-600000028182625155100
742432-50000131021282311300
732332-600001513252819810
722333-50000271828271440
712233-6000131124312281
702234-50016183028143
692134-60003112633215
682135-5001620342910
672035-6000314323515
662036-50029274022
651936-60015214231
641937-5003154339
631837-601113949
621838-5073359
611738-60052966
601739-5031977
591639-621781
581640-52890
571540-6991
561541-51486
551542-4694
21-54100
Total:911111098765443322121111000000000