How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

TuesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Kilpatrick Trophy100.0*Average seed
Albany vs Syracuse+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Hershey vs W-B/Scranton+0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Albany finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inKilpatrickChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
113-120InYes100412*
112334-0In81.8%861422*
111324-1In86.0901050*
110325-0In62.46931117*
109315-1In52.46238233*
108305-2In42.05644495*
107306-1In31.84555999*
106296-2In26.6406001,998*
105297-1In14.7287203,316*
104287-2In11.72476006,311*
103288-1In5.61486009,541*
102278-2In3.611890016,439*
101279-1In1.36931023,987*
100269-2In0.84941138,325*
992610-1In0.22951251,390*
982510-2In0.11951375,852*
972511-1In0.009315095,967*
962411-2In0.00902800131,357*
952412-1In0.008721200157,069*
942312-2InNo08311600200,113*
932313-1InNo07612300225,213*
922213-2InNo07012900270,785*
912214-1InNo062137000288,051*
902114-2InNo055043010325,299*
892115-1InNo460520100325,581*
882015-2InNo390581200345,534*
872016-1100.0%No3006515000326,425*
861916-2100.0No24068180000327,401*
851917-1100.0No160701120000292,343*
841817-2100.0No120691180100277,475*
831818-199.9No706502612000234,973*
821718-299.8No55803213000208,975*
811719-199.5No249040170000167,566*
801619-298.9No1410451111000140,961*
791620-197.4No0290481181100105,816*
781520-294.9No0220471252310084,943*
771521-190.1No012431343610060,109*
761421-284.0No093603939300045,392*
751422-173.5No042604341561030,266*
741322-263.2No219041320112021,692*
731323-147.4No011036325205013,448*
721223-237.2No073022527819,000*
711224-123.2No0221124351525,360*
701124-216.0No02141203921403,401*
691125-17.9No080134030901,859*
681025-25.5No050835381301,124*
671026-11.6No2032744231550*
66926-2OutNo32644252325*
65927-10.7No111431504139*
64827-2OutNo134945376*
63828-1OutNo2468825*
62728-2OutNo23621513*
61729-1OutNo63388*
60730-0OutNo50508*
56-59OutNo1002*
46037-0OutNo397409
Total:98.7%0.1%041043011030100004,954,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. John's 2 Utica 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Albany vs Syracuse-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.6+0.6+0.6

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
113-120100
112334-082514
111324-186410
110325-062731
109315-152938
108305-24214440
107306-13214541
106296-227135820
105297-115146840
104287-2121271600
103288-1687610000
102278-2477514000
101279-11471220000
100269-21367271010
992610-10261351020
982510-20158371030
972511-100504310500
962411-2004149117000
952412-100295711111000
942312-20236011143000
932313-101363011750000
922213-209610119100000
912214-1045801201700000
902114-2035300192500000
892115-114500163600100000
882015-203900134500210000
872016-103008570132000000
861916-20240066201340000000
851917-101602680148000000
841817-201201670151300100000
831818-17006500521001000000
821718-25058004280121000000
811719-1204903370143000000
801619-210410342016500000000
791620-1002902470181001110000
781520-20022014601916012110000
771521-1012042011024023321000
761421-209036009300245321000
751422-104026073602577420000
741322-220190537014910741000
731323-1011023401310141274100
721223-20722900271516136310
711224-102120015131819136200
701124-202014003101722179410
691125-108014132223161031
681025-200513815232314710
671026-120382125241151
66926-211818232416710
65927-111819293192
64827-2111830301611
63828-12044288
62728-28314615
61729-16338
60730-038132525
56-59100
46037-0694
Total:00832009340029001200000000000000