NovosibirskSibir Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Beat Amur 4-3, playoff odds up 16.2 to 54.9%

50 points 11-7 23-3 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	-8.6		-0.3
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	+1.4		+0.1
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	+1.0		+0.0
Vityaz 5 Barys 1	+0.4

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Traktor 2 AK Bars 5	+2.9		+0.1
Metallurg Mg 6 Lada 0	+2.5		+0.1
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	-0.5		-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Sibir finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

86		12	-	0	0		-	0	0		In				0	5	40	55							804
85		11	-	1	0		-	0	0		In						7	93							14
84		10	-	2	0		-	0	0		In					2	29	69							42	*
83	.5	11	-	0	0		-	0	1		In					3	13	78	6						32
83		11	-	0	1		-	0	0		In						17	79	4						103	*
82	.5	10	-	1	0		-	0	1		In					1	13	84	3						116
82		10	-	1	1		-	0	0		In						9	85	6						310	*
81	.5	9	-	2	0		-	0	1		In						7	86	7						244	*
81		9	-	2	1		-	0	0		In						6	85	9						706	*
80	.5	9	-	1	0		-	1	1		In					0	5	86	9						795	*
80		9	-	1	1		-	1	0		In						4	82	14						1,617	*
79	.5	9	-	1	1		-	0	1		In						3	81	17						1,957	*
79		8	-	2	1		-	1	0		In						2	79	19						3,213	*
78	.5	8	-	2	1		-	0	1		In					0	1	76	23						4,178	*
78		8	-	2	2		-	0	0		In						1	72	27	0					6,535	*
77	.5	8	-	1	1		-	1	1		In						0	68	31	0					8,413	*
77		8	-	1	1		-	0	2		In						0	65	34	0					12,083	*
76	.5	8	-	1	2		-	0	1		In						0	60	40	0					15,013	*
76		7	-	2	1		-	0	2		In						0	56	44	0					20,583	*
75	.5	7	-	2	2		-	0	1		100.0	%					0	51	49	1	0				26,167	*
75		7	-	1	1		-	1	2		100.0						0	46	53	1	0				35,136	*
74	.5	7	-	1	2		-	1	1		100.0						0	40	58	1	0				43,551	*
74		7	-	1	2		-	0	2		100.0						0	36	62	2	0				55,067	*
73	.5	6	-	2	2		-	1	1		100.0						0	31	66	3	0				65,904	*
73		6	-	2	2		-	0	2		99.9						0	26	70	4	0				82,025	*
72	.5	6	-	1	2		-	2	1		99.9						0	22	72	6	0				98,146	*
72		6	-	1	2		-	1	2		99.8							18	73	8	0	0			117,502	*
71	.5	6	-	1	3		-	1	1		99.7							15	74	11	0	0			136,242	*
71		5	-	2	2		-	1	2		99.3							11	73	15	1	0			156,924	*
70	.5	5	-	2	3		-	1	1		98.9							9	72	18	1	0			177,907	*
70		5	-	1	2		-	2	2		98.2							7	69	23	2	0			204,351	*
69	.5	5	-	1	2		-	1	3		97.2							5	65	28	3	0	0		228,134	*
69		5	-	1	3		-	1	2		95.6							3	60	33	4	0	0		252,219	*
68	.5	5	-	1	4		-	1	1		93.5							2	54	37	6	0	0		270,497	*
68		4	-	2	3		-	1	2		90.5							1	48	41	9	1	0		290,977	*
67	.5	5	-	0	3		-	1	3		86.6							1	41	45	12	1	0		309,791	*
67		4	-	1	3		-	2	2		81.7							0	34	47	16	2	0	0	328,896	*
66	.5	4	-	1	3		-	1	3		75.9							0	28	48	21	3	0	0	341,645	*
66		4	-	1	4		-	1	2		69.0							0	22	47	26	5	0	0	348,431	*
65	.5	4	-	1	4		-	0	3		61.4							0	16	45	31	7	1	0	350,439	*
65		3	-	2	4		-	1	2		53.0							0	12	41	35	11	1	0	350,219	*
64	.5	4	-	0	4		-	1	3		44.8							0	8	37	39	15	2	0	347,555	*
64		3	-	1	4		-	2	2		36.7							0	6	31	40	19	3	0	341,281	*
63	.5	3	-	1	4		-	1	3		28.7							0	3	25	41	25	5	0	328,014	*
63		3	-	1	5		-	1	2		21.7								2	20	40	30	8	1	307,801	*
62	.5	3	-	1	5		-	0	3		15.9								1	15	37	34	12	1	287,898	*
62		3	-	0	4		-	1	4		11.2								1	11	33	38	16	2	265,866	*
61	.5	3	-	0	5		-	1	3		7.6								0	7	28	40	21	3	243,746	*
61		2	-	1	4		-	1	4		5.0								0	5	23	41	26	5	220,203	*
60	.5	2	-	1	5		-	1	3		3.0								0	3	18	39	32	8	193,262	*
60		2	-	1	6		-	1	2		1.7								0	2	13	37	37	11	166,120	*
59	.5	2	-	0	5		-	2	3		1.0								0	1	10	33	41	15	141,392	*
59		2	-	0	5		-	1	4		0.5								0	1	7	28	44	20	119,810	*
58	.5	2	-	0	6		-	1	3		0.3								0	0	4	23	46	26	100,324	*
58		1	-	1	5		-	1	4		0.1									0	3	19	46	33	81,400	*
57	.5	1	-	1	6		-	1	3		0.1									0	2	14	44	40	64,299	*
57		1	-	1	7		-	1	2		0.0									0	1	10	42	47	48,906	*
56	.5	1	-	0	6		-	2	3		0.0									0	0	8	38	54	37,575	*
56		1	-	0	6		-	1	4		0.0									0	0	5	34	61	28,365	*
55	.5	1	-	0	7		-	1	3		Out										0	3	29	68	20,896	*
55		1	-	0	8		-	1	2		Out										0	2	24	74	14,679	*
54	.5	1	-	0	8		-	0	3		Out										0	1	20	79	9,769	*
54		0	-	0	6		-	2	4		Out											1	16	84	6,207	*
53	.5	0	-	0	6		-	1	5		Out											0	12	88	4,060	*
53		0	-	0	7		-	1	4		Out											0	10	89	2,585	*
52	.5	0	-	0	8		-	1	3		Out											0	6	94	1,485	*
52		0	-	0	8		-	0	4		Out												4	96	758	*
51	.5	0	-	0	9		-	0	3		Out												2	98	360	*
51		0	-	0	10		-	0	2		Out												1	99	126	*
50	-50.5										Out													100	833	*

Total:											54.9	%			0	0	0	4	26	25	19	14	8	4	7,732,503

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	+0.7
Vityaz 5 Barys 1	-0.1
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	-0.1
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	-0.0

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Metallurg Mg 6 Lada 0	-0.2
Traktor 2 AK Bars 5	-0.2
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	+0.0

What If

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

86		12	-	0	0		-	0	0							0		5	0	40	14	41
85		11	-	1	0		-	0	0											7	14	79
84		10	-	2	0		-	0	0									2		29		69
83	.5	11	-	0	0		-	0	1									3		13	6	72	6
83		11	-	0	1		-	0	0											17	4	75	3	1
82	.5	10	-	1	0		-	0	1									1		13	3	81	3
82		10	-	1	1		-	0	0											9	1	84	5	1
81	.5	9	-	2	0		-	0	1											7	1	86	5	2
81		9	-	2	1		-	0	0											6	0	85	5	4
80	.5	9	-	1	0		-	1	1									0		5	0	85	4	5
80		9	-	1	1		-	1	0											4	0	82	5	10
79	.5	9	-	1	1		-	0	1											3	0	81	5	12
79		8	-	2	1		-	1	0											2		79	4	15
78	.5	8	-	2	1		-	0	1									0		1	0	76	5	18
78		8	-	2	2		-	0	0											1	0	72	4	24	0	0
77	.5	8	-	1	1		-	1	1											0		68	3	28	0	0
77		8	-	1	1		-	0	2											0		65	3	32	0	0
76	.5	8	-	1	2		-	0	1											0		60	2	38	0	0
76		7	-	2	1		-	0	2											0		56	2	42	0	0
75	.5	7	-	2	2		-	0	1											0		51	1	48	0	0	0	0
75		7	-	1	1		-	1	2											0		46	1	52	0	1	0
74	.5	7	-	1	2		-	1	1											0		40	0	58	0	1	0
74		7	-	1	2		-	0	2											0		36	0	62	0	2	0	0
73	.5	6	-	2	2		-	1	1											0		31	0	66	0	3	0	0	0
73		6	-	2	2		-	0	2											0		26	0	69	0	4	0	0	0
72	.5	6	-	1	2		-	2	1											0		22	0	72	0	6	0	0	0
72		6	-	1	2		-	1	2													18	0	73	0	8	0	0	0	0
71	.5	6	-	1	3		-	1	1													15	0	74	0	11	0	0	0	0
71		5	-	2	2		-	1	2													11	0	73	0	15	0	0	0	0	0
70	.5	5	-	2	3		-	1	1													9		72	0	18	0	0	0	0	0
70		5	-	1	2		-	2	2													7		69	0	23	0	1	1	0	0
69	.5	5	-	1	2		-	1	3													5		65	0	28	0	1	1	1	0
69		5	-	1	3		-	1	2													3		60	0	33	0	1	2	1	0
68	.5	5	-	1	4		-	1	1													2		54	0	37	0	1	3	2	0	0
68		4	-	2	3		-	1	2													1		48	0	41	0	1	4	3	0	0
67	.5	5	-	0	3		-	1	3													1		41	0	45	0	1	6	6	0	0
67		4	-	1	3		-	2	2													0		34		47	0	1	7	9	1	0
66	.5	4	-	1	3		-	1	3													0		28		48	0	1	8	13	2	0	0
66		4	-	1	4		-	1	2													0		22		47	0	1	8	18	3	0	0
65	.5	4	-	1	4		-	0	3													0		16		45	0	1	8	24	5	0	0
65		3	-	2	4		-	1	2													0		12		41	0	0	8	30	8	1	0
64	.5	4	-	0	4		-	1	3													0		8		37	0	0	7	34	12	2	0
64		3	-	1	4		-	2	2													0		6		31	0	0	6	38	17	3	0
63	.5	3	-	1	4		-	1	3													0		3		25	0	0	4	40	22	5	0
63		3	-	1	5		-	1	2															2		20		0	3	39	28	7	1	0
62	.5	3	-	1	5		-	0	3															1		15		0	2	37	33	11	1
62		3	-	0	4		-	1	4															1		11		0	1	33	37	15	2	0
61	.5	3	-	0	5		-	1	3															0		7		0	1	29	40	20	3	0
61		2	-	1	4		-	1	4															0		5		0	0	23	40	26	5	0
60	.5	2	-	1	5		-	1	3															0		3		0	0	18	39	32	8	0
60		2	-	1	6		-	1	2															0		2		0	0	14	36	37	11	0
59	.5	2	-	0	5		-	2	3															0		1			0	10	33	41	15	0
59		2	-	0	5		-	1	4															0		1			0	7	28	44	21	0
58	.5	2	-	0	6		-	1	3															0		0			0	4	23	45	27	0
58		1	-	1	5		-	1	4																	0			0	3	18	45	33	1
57	.5	1	-	1	6		-	1	3																	0			0	2	14	43	40	1
57		1	-	1	7		-	1	2																	0				1	10	40	48	2
56	.5	1	-	0	6		-	2	3																	0				0	7	36	54	3
56		1	-	0	6		-	1	4																	0				0	4	32	60	4
55	.5	1	-	0	7		-	1	3																					0	3	26	65	6
55		1	-	0	8		-	1	2																					0	2	21	69	8
54	.5	1	-	0	8		-	0	3																					0	1	17	70	11
54		0	-	0	6		-	2	4																						1	13	72	15
53	.5	0	-	0	6		-	1	5																						0	9	74	17
53		0	-	0	7		-	1	4																						0	8	71	21
52	.5	0	-	0	8		-	1	3																						0	4	69	26
52		0	-	0	8		-	0	4																							3	64	34
51	.5	0	-	0	9		-	0	3																							1	63	37
51		0	-	0	10		-	0	2																							1	64	35
50	.5	0	-	0	11		-	0	1																								59	41
50		0	-	0	12		-	0	0																								43	57

Total:																0		0	0	0	0	4	0	26	0	25	0	0	3	16	13	8	4	0