RigaDinamo Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Lost to Traktor 2-3, playoff odds down 5.5 to 21.3%

56 points 16-1 20-6 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	+6.4		+0.3
Torpedo 1 Avangard 2	+1.9		+0.0
Severstal 1 MVD 3	+1.1		+0.1
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	-0.8		-0.1
CSKA 1 Salavat 3	+0.5
Atlant 2 Spartak 4	-0.3

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	*-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dinamo R finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

95		13	-	0	0		-	0	0		In				7	46	40	7	0						804
94		12	-	1	0		-	0	0		In					75	25								4
93		11	-	2	0		-	0	0		In					15	62	15	8						13	*
92	.5	12	-	0	0		-	0	1		In						78	22							9
92		11	-	1	0		-	1	0		In					10	36	38	16						50	*
91	.5	11	-	1	0		-	0	1		In					14	45	34	7						29
91		11	-	1	1		-	0	0		In					4	36	46	13						97	*
90	.5	10	-	2	0		-	0	1		In					3	42	41	14	1					118	*
90		10	-	2	1		-	0	0		In					1	30	42	27	0					265	*
89	.5	10	-	1	0		-	1	1		In					1	21	50	27	1					334	*
89		10	-	1	1		-	1	0		In					0	14	48	37	0					644	*
88	.5	10	-	1	1		-	0	1		In					0	13	44	42	1					799	*
88		9	-	2	1		-	1	0		In					0	10	39	50	2					1,335	*
87	.5	9	-	2	1		-	0	1		In					0	7	37	54	3					1,707	*
87		9	-	2	2		-	0	0		In					0	4	32	60	4					2,817	*
86	.5	9	-	1	1		-	1	1		99.9	%					3	26	66	5	0				3,757	*
86		9	-	1	1		-	0	2		99.9						2	22	68	8	0				5,394	*
85	.5	8	-	2	1		-	1	1		99.8						1	18	70	11	0				6,887	*
85		8	-	2	1		-	0	2		99.7						1	14	70	15	0				9,948	*
84	.5	8	-	2	2		-	0	1		99.6						0	11	70	18	0				12,704	*
84		8	-	1	1		-	1	2		99.0						0	8	69	22	1				17,424	*
83	.5	8	-	1	2		-	1	1		98.5						0	6	66	27	2				21,901	*
83		8	-	1	2		-	0	2		97.4						0	4	63	31	3	0			28,760	*
82	.5	7	-	2	2		-	1	1		96.6						0	2	58	36	3	0			35,395	*
82		7	-	2	2		-	0	2		95.1						0	2	53	41	5	0			44,373	*
81	.5	7	-	1	2		-	2	1		93.2						0	1	47	45	7	0			55,266	*
81		7	-	1	2		-	1	2		90.5							1	41	49	9	0			68,431	*
80	.5	7	-	1	3		-	1	1		87.8						0	0	35	52	12	0			80,954	*
80		6	-	2	2		-	1	2		83.9							0	30	54	16	0	0		96,581	*
79	.5	6	-	2	3		-	1	1		79.5							0	25	55	20	1	0		112,377	*
79		6	-	1	2		-	2	2		74.8							0	20	55	24	1	0		133,323	*
78	.5	6	-	1	2		-	1	3		69.0							0	16	53	30	1	0		151,704	*
78		6	-	1	3		-	1	2		62.9							0	12	51	35	2	0		173,700	*
77	.5	5	-	2	2		-	1	3		56.5							0	9	48	40	3	0		193,713	*
77		5	-	2	3		-	1	2		49.8							0	6	43	45	5	0		216,030	*
76	.5	5	-	2	4		-	1	1		43.0							0	4	39	50	7	0		237,447	*
76		5	-	1	3		-	2	2		36.3								3	33	54	10	0		259,955	*
75	.5	5	-	1	3		-	1	3		30.0								2	28	56	13	1		277,959	*
75		5	-	1	4		-	1	2		24.2								1	23	58	17	1		296,718	*
74	.5	4	-	2	3		-	1	3		19.0								1	18	58	21	2		309,495	*
74		4	-	2	4		-	1	2		14.7								0	14	57	26	3		322,307	*
73	.5	4	-	1	3		-	2	3		10.8								0	11	54	31	4		331,427	*
73		4	-	1	4		-	2	2		7.8								0	8	51	36	6		338,797	*
72	.5	4	-	1	4		-	1	3		5.4								0	5	46	41	8		340,883	*
72		4	-	1	5		-	1	2		3.7								0	4	41	45	11		336,388	*
71	.5	3	-	2	4		-	1	3		2.4								0	2	35	48	14		329,007	*
71		3	-	2	5		-	1	2		1.5								0	1	30	51	18	0	319,191	*
70	.5	3	-	1	4		-	2	3		0.9								0	1	25	52	23	0	306,971	*
70		3	-	1	4		-	1	4		0.5								0	1	20	52	28	0	292,463	*
69	.5	3	-	1	5		-	1	3		0.3									0	16	50	34	0	270,890	*
69		3	-	1	6		-	1	2		0.1									0	12	48	40	0	248,485	*
68	.5	2	-	2	5		-	1	3		0.1									0	9	45	46	0	226,648	*
68		3	-	0	5		-	1	4		0.0									0	6	41	52	0	202,805	*
67	.5	2	-	1	5		-	2	3		0.0									0	4	37	58	0	180,595	*
67		2	-	1	5		-	1	4		0.0									0	3	33	64	0	158,007	*
66	.5	2	-	1	6		-	1	3		0.0									0	2	28	70	0	134,705	*
66		2	-	1	7		-	1	2		0.0									0	1	24	75	0	113,922	*
65	.5	2	-	0	6		-	2	3		Out										1	20	80	0	94,135	*
65		2	-	0	6		-	1	4		Out										0	16	83	0	78,186	*
64	.5	2	-	0	7		-	1	3		Out										0	12	87	0	62,764	*
64		1	-	1	6		-	1	4		Out										0	10	90	0	49,529	*
63	.5	1	-	1	7		-	1	3		Out										0	8	92	0	38,452	*
63		1	-	0	6		-	2	4		Out										0	6	94	0	28,233	*
62	.5	1	-	0	6		-	1	5		Out										0	4	96	0	21,205	*
62		1	-	0	7		-	1	4		Out											3	97	0	15,603	*
61	.5	1	-	0	8		-	1	3		Out											2	97	0	11,144	*
61		0	-	1	7		-	1	4		Out											1	98	0	7,540	*
60	.5	0	-	1	8		-	1	3		Out											1	98	1	4,897	*
60		0	-	0	7		-	2	4		Out											1	99	1	3,053	*
59	.5	0	-	0	7		-	1	5		Out											1	98	1	1,936	*
59		0	-	0	8		-	1	4		Out											1	98	2	1,120	*
58	.5	0	-	0	9		-	1	3		Out											0	98	2	681	*
58		0	-	0	10		-	1	2		Out												98	2	306	*
57	.5	0	-	0	10		-	0	3		Out												95	5	150	*
57		0	-	0	11		-	0	2		Out												100		43	*
56	.5	0	-	0	12		-	0	1		Out												90	10	10
56		0	-	0	13		-	0	0		Out												88	12	804

Total:											21.3	%			0	0	0	0	5	16	32	28	20	0	7,732,503

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	-0.5
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	+0.1
Severstal 1 MVD 3	-0.1
Torpedo 1 Avangard 2	-0.1

Friday	None

What If

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

95		13	-	0	0		-	0	0						3	3	43	3	40		7		0
94		12	-	1	0		-	0	0								75		25
93		11	-	2	0		-	0	0								15		62		15		8
92	.5	12	-	0	0		-	0	1										67	11	22
92		11	-	1	0		-	1	0								4	6	34	2	38		16
91	.5	11	-	1	0		-	0	1								10	3	45		34		7
91		11	-	1	1		-	0	0								1	3	32	4	46		13
90	.5	10	-	2	0		-	0	1								1	2	37	4	41		14		1
90		10	-	2	1		-	0	0									1	26	4	42		27		0
89	.5	10	-	1	0		-	1	1								1	1	17	4	50		27		1
89		10	-	1	1		-	1	0									0	10	4	48		37		0
88	.5	10	-	1	1		-	0	1								0		9	4	44		42		1
88		9	-	2	1		-	1	0									0	6	4	39		50		2
87	.5	9	-	2	1		-	0	1									0	4	3	37		54		3
87		9	-	2	2		-	0	0									0	2	2	32	0	60		4
86	.5	9	-	1	1		-	1	1										1	2	26	0	66		5		0
86		9	-	1	1		-	0	2										1	1	22	0	68		8		0
85	.5	8	-	2	1		-	1	1										0	1	18	0	70		11		0
85		8	-	2	1		-	0	2										0	1	14	0	70		15		0
84	.5	8	-	2	2		-	0	1										0	0	11	0	70		18		0
84		8	-	1	1		-	1	2										0	0	8	0	69		22		1
83	.5	8	-	1	2		-	1	1										0	0	5	0	66	0	27		2
83		8	-	1	2		-	0	2											0	4	0	63	0	31		3	0
82	.5	7	-	2	2		-	1	1										0	0	2	0	58	0	36		3	0
82		7	-	2	2		-	0	2										0	0	1	0	53	0	41		5	0
81	.5	7	-	1	2		-	2	1											0	1	0	47		45		7	0
81		7	-	1	2		-	1	2												1	0	41		49		9	0
80	.5	7	-	1	3		-	1	1											0	0	0	35	0	52		12	0
80		6	-	2	2		-	1	2												0	0	30	0	54		16	0	0
79	.5	6	-	2	3		-	1	1												0	0	25	0	55		20	1	0
79		6	-	1	2		-	2	2												0	0	20	0	55		24	1	0
78	.5	6	-	1	2		-	1	3												0	0	16	0	53		30	1	0
78		6	-	1	3		-	1	2												0	0	12	0	51		35	2	0
77	.5	5	-	2	2		-	1	3												0	0	9	0	48	0	40	3	0
77		5	-	2	3		-	1	2													0	6	0	43	0	45	5	0
76	.5	5	-	2	4		-	1	1												0	0	4	0	39	0	50	7	0
76		5	-	1	3		-	2	2														3	0	33	0	54	10	0
75	.5	5	-	1	3		-	1	3														2	0	28	0	56	13	1
75		5	-	1	4		-	1	2														1	0	23	0	58	17	1
74	.5	4	-	2	3		-	1	3														1	0	18	0	58	21	2
74		4	-	2	4		-	1	2														0	0	14	0	57	26	3
73	.5	4	-	1	3		-	2	3														0	0	11	0	54	31	4
73		4	-	1	4		-	2	2														0	0	8	0	51	36	6
72	.5	4	-	1	4		-	1	3														0	0	5	0	46	41	8	0
72		4	-	1	5		-	1	2														0	0	4	0	41	45	11	0
71	.5	3	-	2	4		-	1	3														0	0	2	0	35	48	14	0
71		3	-	2	5		-	1	2														0	0	1	0	30	51	18	0
70	.5	3	-	1	4		-	2	3														0	0	1	0	25	52	23	0	0
70		3	-	1	4		-	1	4														0	0	0	0	20	52	28	0	0
69	.5	3	-	1	5		-	1	3																0	0	15	50	34	0	0
69		3	-	1	6		-	1	2																0	0	12	48	40	0	0
68	.5	2	-	2	5		-	1	3																0	0	9	45	46	1	0	0
68		3	-	0	5		-	1	4																0	0	6	40	52	1	0	0
67	.5	2	-	1	5		-	2	3																0	0	4	36	58	2	0	0
67		2	-	1	5		-	1	4																0	0	3	30	63	4	0	0
66	.5	2	-	1	6		-	1	3																0	0	2	25	66	7	1	0
66		2	-	1	7		-	1	2																	0	1	20	68	10	1	0
65	.5	2	-	0	6		-	2	3																		1	15	67	14	2	0	0
65		2	-	0	6		-	1	4																		0	11	65	19	4	0	0
64	.5	2	-	0	7		-	1	3																		0	7	60	25	7	1	0
64		1	-	1	6		-	1	4																		0	5	53	30	10	1	0
63	.5	1	-	1	7		-	1	3																		0	3	45	34	15	2	0
63		1	-	0	6		-	2	4																		0	2	37	37	20	4	0
62	.5	1	-	0	6		-	1	5																		0	1	29	38	25	6	0	0
62		1	-	0	7		-	1	4																			1	22	37	31	10	1
61	.5	1	-	0	8		-	1	3																			0	16	32	36	14	1
61		0	-	1	7		-	1	4																			0	10	30	38	19	3
60	.5	0	-	1	8		-	1	3																			0	7	25	39	25	4	0
60		0	-	0	7		-	2	4																				4	20	39	30	6
59	.5	0	-	0	7		-	1	5																				3	16	38	34	9
59		0	-	0	8		-	1	4																				1	10	35	39	14	0
58	.5	0	-	0	9		-	1	3																				0	8	30	46	16	0
58		0	-	0	10		-	1	2																				1	5	22	48	23	1
57	.5	0	-	0	10		-	0	3																					1	19	47	29	3
57		0	-	0	11		-	0	2																						21	49	30
56	.5	0	-	0	12		-	0	1																							40	60
56		0	-	0	13		-	0	0																					0	6	36	51	7

Total:															0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	16	0	31	27	18	2	1	0	0	0