MoscowCSKA Playoff Chances 2010

Beat MVD 2-1 (so), playoff odds up 4.9 to 96.3%

67 points 16-7 17-5 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
CSKA 1 Salavat 3	-1.4		-0.2
Severstal 1 MVD 3	+0.7
Torpedo 1 Avangard 2	+0.6		+0.0
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	-0.4
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	-0.2
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	+0.1
Atlant 2 Spartak 4			-0.1

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the CSKA finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

100		11	-	0	0		-	0	0		In				33	61	6	0							815
99		10	-	1	0		-	0	0		In				25	59	16								73
98		9	-	2	0		-	0	0		In				14	61	24	1							217	*
97	.5	10	-	0	0		-	0	1		In				12	57	28	3							157
97		9	-	1	0		-	1	0		In				6	53	32	8	0						620	*
96	.5	9	-	1	0		-	0	1		In				5	46	37	12	1						529
96		9	-	1	1		-	0	0		In				3	35	45	14	2						1,343	*
95	.5	8	-	2	0		-	0	1		In				2	33	44	20	1						1,384	*
95		8	-	2	1		-	0	0		In				1	26	44	25	4						3,174	*
94	.5	8	-	1	0		-	1	1		In				0	20	44	30	6						3,869	*
94		8	-	1	1		-	1	0		In				0	15	41	35	8						6,680	*
93	.5	8	-	1	1		-	0	1		In				0	10	38	40	11						7,780	*
93		7	-	2	1		-	1	0		In				0	7	34	43	16						12,070	*
92	.5	7	-	2	1		-	0	1		In				0	5	28	46	21	0					15,166	*
92		7	-	2	2		-	0	0		In				0	3	23	48	27	0					23,154	*
91	.5	7	-	1	1		-	1	1		In				0	2	19	47	32	0					28,895	*
91		7	-	1	1		-	0	2		In				0	1	14	46	39	0					39,118	*
90	.5	7	-	1	2		-	0	1		In				0	1	11	44	45	0					47,094	*
90		6	-	2	1		-	0	2		In				0	0	8	40	52	0					61,415	*
89	.5	6	-	2	2		-	0	1		In					0	6	36	58	0					75,587	*
89		6	-	1	1		-	1	2		In					0	4	32	64	0					96,291	*
88	.5	6	-	1	2		-	1	1		In					0	3	28	69	0					113,251	*
88		6	-	1	2		-	0	2		In					0	2	23	74	1					133,755	*
87	.5	5	-	2	2		-	1	1		In					0	1	19	79	1					153,169	*
87		5	-	2	2		-	0	2		In					0	1	16	82	1					181,606	*
86	.5	5	-	2	3		-	0	1		In					0	0	12	85	2					208,954	*
86		5	-	1	2		-	1	2		100.0	%					0	10	87	3	0				238,154	*
85	.5	5	-	1	3		-	1	1		100.0						0	8	89	4	0				258,989	*
85		5	-	1	3		-	0	2		100.0						0	6	89	5	0				282,016	*
84	.5	4	-	2	3		-	1	1		100.0						0	4	90	6	0				302,261	*
84		4	-	2	3		-	0	2		100.0						0	3	89	8	0				326,534	*
83	.5	4	-	1	2		-	1	3		100.0						0	2	88	10	0				346,680	*
83		4	-	1	3		-	1	2		100.0						0	1	86	12	0				358,868	*
82	.5	4	-	1	3		-	0	3		99.9						0	1	84	15	0				361,736	*
82		4	-	1	4		-	0	2		99.9						0	1	82	18	0	0			363,766	*
81	.5	4	-	0	3		-	1	3		99.8						0	0	78	21	0				362,270	*
81		4	-	0	4		-	1	2		99.6						0	0	75	25	0	0			361,955	*
80	.5	3	-	1	3		-	1	3		99.4							0	71	28	1	0			351,010	*
80		3	-	1	4		-	1	2		99.0							0	66	33	1	0			332,689	*
79	.5	3	-	1	4		-	0	3		98.5							0	62	37	1	0			308,090	*
79		3	-	1	5		-	0	2		97.7							0	56	41	2	0			284,741	*
78	.5	3	-	0	4		-	1	3		96.6							0	51	45	3	0			262,028	*
78		2	-	1	3		-	1	4		95.3							0	46	49	5	0	0		239,613	*
77	.5	2	-	1	4		-	1	3		93.2							0	40	53	7	0	0		210,099	*
77		2	-	1	5		-	1	2		90.6							0	35	56	9	0	0		180,688	*
76	.5	2	-	1	5		-	0	3		87.5							0	30	58	12	1	0		152,812	*
76		2	-	0	4		-	1	4		83.4							0	25	59	16	1	0		129,068	*
75	.5	2	-	0	5		-	1	3		78.7								20	59	20	2	0		108,151	*
75		1	-	1	4		-	1	4		73.2								16	57	24	3	0		88,192	*
74	.5	1	-	1	5		-	1	3		66.9								12	55	29	4	0		69,631	*
74		1	-	1	6		-	1	2		60.3								9	51	34	6	0		52,908	*
73	.5	1	-	1	6		-	0	3		52.8								6	46	38	8	0		39,551	*
73		1	-	0	5		-	1	4		45.6								5	41	42	12	1		29,561	*
72	.5	1	-	0	6		-	1	3		37.6								3	34	45	16	1		21,976	*
72		1	-	0	6		-	0	4		30.8								2	29	46	21	2		15,687	*
71	.5	1	-	0	7		-	0	3		24.4								1	23	47	25	3		10,479	*
71		1	-	0	8		-	0	2		17.5								1	17	45	33	5		6,584	*
70	.5	0	-	0	5		-	1	5		13.4								0	13	43	36	8		4,092	*
70		0	-	0	6		-	1	4		10.5								0	10	39	41	10		2,536	*
69	.5	0	-	0	7		-	1	3		6.7								0	7	35	45	14		1,560	*
69		0	-	0	7		-	0	4		4.5								0	4	30	47	19		891	*
68	.5	0	-	0	8		-	0	3		2.9									3	22	44	30		383	*
68		0	-	0	9		-	0	2		1.7									2	13	52	33		115	*
67	.5	0	-	0	10		-	0	1		Out										8	53	39		38
67		0	-	0	11		-	0	0		0.4									0	5	42	53		801

Total:											96.3	%			0	0	1	5	68	22	3	0	0		7,683,369

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
CSKA 1 Salavat 3	+0.3
Atlant 2 Spartak 4	+0.1
Torpedo 1 Avangard 2	-0.1
Severstal 1 MVD 3	-0.0

Friday	None

What If

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

100		11	-	0	0		-	0	0						28	4	61	0	6		0
99		10	-	1	0		-	0	0						12	12	58	1	16
98		9	-	2	0		-	0	0						12	2	61	0	24		1
97	.5	10	-	0	0		-	0	1						8	4	56	1	28		3
97		9	-	1	0		-	1	0						3	4	50	4	32		8		0
96	.5	9	-	1	0		-	0	1						2	3	42	4	37		12		1
96		9	-	1	1		-	0	0						2	2	32	4	45		14		2
95	.5	8	-	2	0		-	0	1						1	2	28	5	44		20		1
95		8	-	2	1		-	0	0						0	1	20	5	44	0	25		4
94	.5	8	-	1	0		-	1	1						0	0	15	5	44	0	30		6
94		8	-	1	1		-	1	0						0	0	10	5	41	0	35		8
93	.5	8	-	1	1		-	0	1							0	7	4	37	1	40		11
93		7	-	2	1		-	1	0						0	0	3	3	33	1	43		16
92	.5	7	-	2	1		-	0	1							0	2	3	27	1	46		21		0
92		7	-	2	2		-	0	0							0	1	2	21	2	48		27		0
91	.5	7	-	1	1		-	1	1							0	0	1	17	2	47		32		0
91		7	-	1	1		-	0	2							0	0	1	12	2	46		39		0
90	.5	7	-	1	2		-	0	1							0	0	0	9	2	44		45		0
90		6	-	2	1		-	0	2							0	0	0	6	2	40		52		0
89	.5	6	-	2	2		-	0	1								0	0	4	1	36	0	58		0
89		6	-	1	1		-	1	2								0	0	3	1	32	0	64		0
88	.5	6	-	1	2		-	1	1								0	0	2	1	28	0	69		0
88		6	-	1	2		-	0	2								0	0	1	1	23	0	74		1
87	.5	5	-	2	2		-	1	1									0	1	1	19	0	79		1
87		5	-	2	2		-	0	2									0	0	0	16	0	82		1
86	.5	5	-	2	3		-	0	1									0	0	0	12	0	85		2
86		5	-	1	2		-	1	2										0	0	10	0	87		3		0
85	.5	5	-	1	3		-	1	1										0	0	8	0	89		4		0
85		5	-	1	3		-	0	2										0	0	6	0	89		5		0
84	.5	4	-	2	3		-	1	1										0	0	4	0	90		6		0
84		4	-	2	3		-	0	2										0	0	3	0	89	0	8		0
83	.5	4	-	1	2		-	1	3										0	0	2	0	88	0	10		0
83		4	-	1	3		-	1	2											0	1	0	86	0	12		0
82	.5	4	-	1	3		-	0	3										0	0	1	0	84	0	15		0
82		4	-	1	4		-	0	2											0	1	0	82	0	18		0	0
81	.5	4	-	0	3		-	1	3											0	0	0	78	0	21		0
81		4	-	0	4		-	1	2											0	0	0	75	0	25		0	0
80	.5	3	-	1	3		-	1	3												0	0	71	0	28		1	0
80		3	-	1	4		-	1	2												0	0	66	0	33		1	0
79	.5	3	-	1	4		-	0	3												0	0	62	0	37		1	0
79		3	-	1	5		-	0	2												0	0	56	0	41		2	0
78	.5	3	-	0	4		-	1	3												0	0	51	0	45		3	0
78		2	-	1	3		-	1	4												0	0	46	0	49		5	0	0
77	.5	2	-	1	4		-	1	3												0	0	40	0	53		7	0	0
77		2	-	1	5		-	1	2												0	0	35	0	56		9	0	0
76	.5	2	-	1	5		-	0	3													0	30	0	58		12	1	0
76		2	-	0	4		-	1	4													0	25	0	59		16	1	0
75	.5	2	-	0	5		-	1	3														20	0	59		20	2	0
75		1	-	1	4		-	1	4														16	0	57		24	3	0
74	.5	1	-	1	5		-	1	3														12	0	55	0	29	4	0
74		1	-	1	6		-	1	2														9	0	51	0	34	6	0
73	.5	1	-	1	6		-	0	3														6	0	46	0	38	9	0
73		1	-	0	5		-	1	4														4	0	41	0	42	12	1
72	.5	1	-	0	6		-	1	3														3	0	34	0	45	16	1
72		1	-	0	6		-	0	4														2	0	29	0	46	21	2
71	.5	1	-	0	7		-	0	3														1	0	23	0	47	25	3
71		1	-	0	8		-	0	2														1	0	17	0	45	33	5
70	.5	0	-	0	5		-	1	5														0	0	13	0	43	36	8
70		0	-	0	6		-	1	4														0	0	10	0	38	41	10
69	.5	0	-	0	7		-	1	3															0	7	0	35	44	14
69		0	-	0	7		-	0	4														0		4	0	30	47	19
68	.5	0	-	0	8		-	0	3																2	1	22	45	30
68		0	-	0	9		-	0	2																2		13	52	33
67	.5	0	-	0	10		-	0	1																		8	45	47
67		0	-	0	11		-	0	0																0		4	42	53	1

Total:															0	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	67	0	22	0	3	0	0	0