YekaterinburgAvtomobilist Playoff Chances 2010

Lost to Dynamo Mn 0-4, playoff odds down 8.9 to 10%

46 points 9-7 24-5 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	+0.6		+0.0
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	+0.3		+0.1
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	+0.2		+0.1

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	+3.0		+0.2
Traktor 2 AK Bars 5	+0.8		+0.0
Metallurg Mg 6 Lada 0	+0.6		+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Avtomobilist finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

79		11	-	0	0		-	0	0		In						1	85	14						800
78		10	-	1	0		-	0	0		In							100							1
77		9	-	2	0		-	0	0		In							80	20						5	*
76	.5	10	-	0	0		-	0	1		In							67	33						6
76		9	-	1	0		-	1	0		In							67	33						12	*
75	.5	9	-	1	0		-	0	1		In							85	15						13
75		9	-	1	1		-	0	0		In							73	28						40	*
74	.5	9	-	0	0		-	1	1		In							53	48						40	*
74		9	-	0	1		-	1	0		In							50	49	1					109	*
73	.5	8	-	1	0		-	1	1		In							45	55						148	*
73		8	-	1	1		-	1	0		In							39	60	1					292	*
72	.5	8	-	1	1		-	0	1		In							34	65	1					370	*
72		8	-	1	2		-	0	0		In							28	71	1					685	*
71	.5	8	-	0	1		-	1	1		In							25	72	3					966	*
71		8	-	0	2		-	1	0		99.9	%						20	76	4	0				1,621	*
70	.5	7	-	1	1		-	1	1		100.0							17	77	6	0				2,132	*
70		7	-	1	2		-	1	0		99.8							14	77	9	0				3,471	*
69	.5	7	-	1	2		-	0	1		99.8							11	78	11	0				4,348	*
69		7	-	0	1		-	1	2		99.3							8	76	15	1	0			6,868	*
68	.5	7	-	0	2		-	1	1		98.8							6	75	18	1	0			9,248	*
68		6	-	1	1		-	1	2		98.1							4	69	25	2	0			13,293	*
67	.5	6	-	1	2		-	1	1		96.7							3	65	29	3	0			17,072	*
67		6	-	1	2		-	0	2		94.6							2	58	35	5	0			23,120	*
66	.5	5	-	2	2		-	1	1		92.5							1	52	39	7	0	0		29,633	*
66		6	-	0	2		-	1	2		88.3							1	44	44	11	1	0		40,170	*
65	.5	5	-	1	2		-	2	1		84.2							0	37	47	14	2	0		50,135	*
65		5	-	1	2		-	1	2		78.1							0	29	48	19	3	0		64,507	*
64	.5	5	-	1	3		-	1	1		71.6							0	23	48	24	4	0	0	77,496	*
64		5	-	1	3		-	0	2		63.4							0	17	46	30	6	0	0	96,765	*
63	.5	5	-	0	3		-	2	1		54.8							0	12	43	35	9	1	0	115,578	*
63		5	-	0	3		-	1	2		46.1							0	8	38	39	14	2	0	141,348	*
62	.5	4	-	1	3		-	2	1		37.4							0	5	32	41	18	3	0	165,793	*
62		4	-	1	3		-	1	2		29.0							0	3	26	43	24	5	0	192,402	*
61	.5	4	-	1	4		-	1	1		21.7								2	20	42	29	7	0	216,572	*
61		4	-	0	3		-	2	2		15.5								1	15	39	34	10	1	246,296	*
60	.5	4	-	0	3		-	1	3		10.7								0	10	35	39	15	1	274,215	*
60		4	-	0	4		-	1	2		6.9								0	7	30	42	20	2	307,209	*
59	.5	3	-	1	3		-	1	3		4.4								0	4	25	43	26	3	330,713	*
59		3	-	1	4		-	1	2		2.5								0	2	19	42	32	4	351,953	*
58	.5	3	-	1	5		-	1	1		1.4								0	1	14	40	38	7	364,839	*
58		3	-	0	4		-	2	2		0.7								0	1	10	36	44	10	381,027	*
57	.5	3	-	0	4		-	1	3		0.4								0	0	7	32	48	13	393,462	*
57		3	-	0	5		-	1	2		0.2								0	0	4	26	51	18	399,462	*
56	.5	2	-	1	4		-	1	3		0.1									0	3	21	53	23	393,138	*
56		2	-	1	5		-	1	2		0.0									0	1	16	53	30	378,047	*
55	.5	2	-	0	4		-	2	3		0.0									0	1	12	51	36	358,262	*
55		2	-	0	5		-	2	2		0.0									0	0	8	48	43	339,536	*
54	.5	2	-	0	5		-	1	3		0.0									0	0	6	44	50	318,103	*
54		2	-	0	6		-	1	2		Out										0	4	39	57	291,313	*
53	.5	1	-	1	5		-	1	3		Out										0	2	34	63	255,876	*
53		1	-	1	6		-	1	2		Out										0	1	29	70	219,890	*
52	.5	1	-	0	5		-	2	3		Out										0	1	24	75	184,736	*
52		1	-	0	6		-	2	2		Out										0	0	20	80	155,647	*
51	.5	1	-	0	6		-	1	3		Out										0	0	15	84	128,006	*
51		1	-	0	7		-	1	2		Out											0	12	88	101,995	*
50	.5	1	-	0	7		-	0	3		Out											0	9	91	75,930	*
50		1	-	0	8		-	0	2		Out											0	6	94	54,294	*
49	.5	0	-	0	6		-	2	3		Out											0	5	95	38,026	*
49		0	-	0	6		-	1	4		Out												3	97	26,995	*
48	.5	0	-	0	7		-	1	3		Out												2	98	18,202	*
48		0	-	0	8		-	1	2		Out												1	99	11,197	*
47	.5	0	-	0	8		-	0	3		Out												1	99	5,938	*
47		0	-	0	9		-	0	2		Out												0	100	2,452	*
46	.5	0	-	0	10		-	0	1		Out												0	100	653
46		0	-	0	11		-	0	0		Out													100	898

Total:											10.0	%					0	0	3	7	13	20	30	26	7,683,369

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	-0.1
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	-0.1
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	-0.0

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	-0.4
Traktor 2 AK Bars 5	-0.1
Metallurg Mg 6 Lada 0	-0.0

What If

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

79		11	-	0	0		-	0	0											1		85	2	12
78		10	-	1	0		-	0	0													100
77		9	-	2	0		-	0	0													80		20
76	.5	10	-	0	0		-	0	1													67		33
76		9	-	1	0		-	1	0													67		33
75	.5	9	-	1	0		-	0	1													85		15
75		9	-	1	1		-	0	0													73		28
74	.5	9	-	0	0		-	1	1													53		48
74		9	-	0	1		-	1	0													50		49	1
73	.5	8	-	1	0		-	1	1													45		55
73		8	-	1	1		-	1	0													39		60	0	1
72	.5	8	-	1	1		-	0	1													34		65		1
72		8	-	1	2		-	0	0													28		71		1
71	.5	8	-	0	1		-	1	1													25		72		3
71		8	-	0	2		-	1	0													20		76		4		0
70	.5	7	-	1	1		-	1	1													17		77	0	6		0
70		7	-	1	2		-	1	0													14		77	0	9	0	0	0
69	.5	7	-	1	2		-	0	1													11		78		11	0	0	0	0
69		7	-	0	1		-	1	2													8		76	0	15	0	0	0	0
68	.5	7	-	0	2		-	1	1													6		75	0	18	0	0	0	0
68		6	-	1	1		-	1	2													4		69	0	25	0	1	1	0
67	.5	6	-	1	2		-	1	1													3		65		29	0	1	2	1	0
67		6	-	1	2		-	0	2													2		58		35	0	1	3	2	0
66	.5	5	-	2	2		-	1	1													1		52		39	0	1	4	3	0	0
66		6	-	0	2		-	1	2													1		44		44	0	1	5	5	0	0
65	.5	5	-	1	2		-	2	1													0		37		47	0	1	6	8	1	0
65		5	-	1	2		-	1	2													0		29		48	0	1	7	12	1	0
64	.5	5	-	1	3		-	1	1													0		23		48	0	1	8	17	3	0	0
64		5	-	1	3		-	0	2													0		17		46	0	1	8	23	5	0	0
63	.5	5	-	0	3		-	2	1													0		12		43	0	0	8	29	7	1	0
63		5	-	0	3		-	1	2													0		8		38		0	7	34	11	1	0
62	.5	4	-	1	3		-	2	1													0		5		32	0	0	6	38	16	2	0
62		4	-	1	3		-	1	2													0		3		26		0	4	41	22	4	0
61	.5	4	-	1	4		-	1	1															2		20		0	3	41	27	6	0
61		4	-	0	3		-	2	2															1		15		0	2	39	33	10	0
60	.5	4	-	0	3		-	1	3															0		10		0	1	35	38	14	1
60		4	-	0	4		-	1	2															0		7		0	1	30	41	19	2
59	.5	3	-	1	3		-	1	3															0		4			1	25	43	25	3	0
59		3	-	1	4		-	1	2															0		2		0	0	19	42	31	4	0
58	.5	3	-	1	5		-	1	1															0		1			0	14	40	38	7	0
58		3	-	0	4		-	2	2															0		1			0	10	36	43	10	0
57	.5	3	-	0	4		-	1	3															0		0			0	7	32	48	13	0
57		3	-	0	5		-	1	2															0		0			0	4	26	51	18	0
56	.5	2	-	1	4		-	1	3																	0			0	3	21	53	23	0
56		2	-	1	5		-	1	2																	0			0	1	16	53	30	0
55	.5	2	-	0	4		-	2	3																	0			0	1	12	51	36	0
55		2	-	0	5		-	2	2																	0			0	0	8	48	43	0
54	.5	2	-	0	5		-	1	3																	0				0	6	44	50	0
54		2	-	0	6		-	1	2																				0	0	4	39	57	0
53	.5	1	-	1	5		-	1	3																					0	2	34	63	1
53		1	-	1	6		-	1	2																					0	1	28	69	1
52	.5	1	-	0	5		-	2	3																					0	1	24	74	1
52		1	-	0	6		-	2	2																					0	0	19	79	2
51	.5	1	-	0	6		-	1	3																					0	0	15	82	3
51		1	-	0	7		-	1	2																						0	11	85	4
50	.5	1	-	0	7		-	0	3																						0	8	87	5
50		1	-	0	8		-	0	2																						0	6	88	7
49	.5	0	-	0	6		-	2	3																							4	88	8
49		0	-	0	6		-	1	4																							3	87	10
48	.5	0	-	0	7		-	1	3																							2	86	12
48		0	-	0	8		-	1	2																							1	84	15
47	.5	0	-	0	8		-	0	3																							1	81	18
47		0	-	0	9		-	0	2																							0	77	23
46	.5	0	-	0	10		-	0	1																							0	76	23
46		0	-	0	11		-	0	0																								70	30

Total:																				0		0	0	3	0	7	0	0	1	12	20	30	26	1