KhabarovskAmur Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Lost to Sibir 3-4, playoff odds down 11.9 to 25.6%

47 points 9-8 23-4 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	-5.5		-0.3
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	+1.4		+0.0
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	+0.4		+0.1
Vityaz 5 Barys 1	+0.1
Severstal 1 MVD 3	*-0.1
Torpedo 1 Avangard 2	*-0.1

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Traktor 2 AK Bars 5	+1.2		+0.1
Metallurg Mg 6 Lada 0	+1.2		+0.0
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	-0.4		-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Amur finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

83		12	-	0	0		-	0	0		In					0	15	84							808
82		11	-	1	0		-	0	0		In						18	82							11
81		10	-	2	0		-	0	0		In						4	92	4						52	*
80	.5	11	-	0	0		-	0	1		In						13	83	4						23
80		10	-	1	0		-	1	0		In						4	94	2						108	*
79	.5	10	-	1	0		-	0	1		In						3	94	4						108
79		10	-	1	1		-	0	0		In						2	91	7						287	*
78	.5	9	-	2	0		-	0	1		In							89	11						276	*
78		9	-	2	1		-	0	0		In							89	11						738	*
77	.5	9	-	1	0		-	1	1		In						0	83	16						889	*
77		9	-	1	1		-	1	0		In						0	77	23	0					1,589	*
76	.5	9	-	1	1		-	0	1		In						0	75	24	0					1,927	*
76		8	-	2	1		-	1	0		In						0	70	29	0					3,272	*
75	.5	8	-	2	1		-	0	1		In						0	67	32	1					4,165	*
75		8	-	1	0		-	1	2		In						0	59	40	1					6,649	*
74	.5	8	-	1	1		-	1	1		100.0	%					0	54	44	2	0				8,343	*
74		8	-	1	1		-	0	2		99.9							47	50	3	0				12,182	*
73	.5	8	-	1	2		-	0	1		99.9						0	42	53	4	0				15,028	*
73		7	-	2	1		-	0	2		99.8						0	35	58	7	0				20,676	*
72	.5	7	-	2	2		-	0	1		99.6							29	61	9	0	0			26,236	*
72		7	-	1	1		-	1	2		99.4							24	64	11	1				35,378	*
71	.5	7	-	1	2		-	1	1		99.1							19	64	15	1	0			43,270	*
71		7	-	1	2		-	0	2		98.4							15	64	20	2	0			54,413	*
70	.5	6	-	2	2		-	1	1		97.4							11	62	24	3	0			65,890	*
70		6	-	2	2		-	0	2		96.0							8	59	29	4	0	0		81,515	*
69	.5	6	-	1	2		-	2	1		93.9							6	54	34	6	0			97,824	*
69		6	-	1	2		-	1	2		91.1							4	49	38	8	1	0		118,368	*
68	.5	6	-	1	3		-	1	1		87.6							2	43	42	11	1	0		135,620	*
68		5	-	2	2		-	1	2		82.8							1	37	45	15	2	0	0	157,557	*
67	.5	5	-	2	3		-	1	1		77.1							1	30	46	20	3	0	0	177,944	*
67		5	-	1	2		-	2	2		70.6							0	24	46	25	4	0	0	203,968	*
66	.5	5	-	1	2		-	1	3		63.0							0	18	44	30	7	0	0	228,150	*
66		5	-	1	3		-	1	2		55.2							0	14	41	35	9	1	0	252,410	*
65	.5	5	-	1	4		-	1	1		47.0							0	10	37	39	13	1	0	270,763	*
65		4	-	2	3		-	1	2		38.7							0	7	32	41	18	2	0	291,194	*
64	.5	5	-	0	3		-	1	3		30.7							0	4	26	43	23	3	0	310,479	*
64		4	-	1	3		-	2	2		23.7							0	3	21	42	28	5	0	329,273	*
63	.5	4	-	1	3		-	1	3		17.5							0	2	16	41	33	8	1	341,687	*
63		4	-	1	4		-	1	2		12.4								1	12	37	38	12	1	348,184	*
62	.5	4	-	1	4		-	0	3		8.5								0	8	32	41	16	2	350,561	*
62		3	-	2	4		-	1	2		5.5							0	0	5	27	44	21	3	350,566	*
61	.5	4	-	0	4		-	1	3		3.4								0	3	22	44	27	4	346,712	*
61		3	-	1	4		-	2	2		2.0								0	2	17	43	32	6	341,387	*
60	.5	3	-	1	4		-	1	3		1.1								0	1	13	40	37	9	327,247	*
60		3	-	1	5		-	1	2		0.6								0	1	9	36	42	12	308,191	*
59	.5	3	-	1	5		-	0	3		0.3								0	0	6	31	46	17	286,626	*
59		3	-	0	4		-	1	4		0.2								0	0	4	26	48	22	266,377	*
58	.5	3	-	0	5		-	1	3		0.1									0	2	21	49	28	244,339	*
58		2	-	1	4		-	1	4		0.0									0	2	16	48	34	219,340	*
57	.5	2	-	1	5		-	1	3		0.0									0	1	13	46	40	193,558	*
57		2	-	1	6		-	1	2		0.0									0	0	9	44	47	165,899	*
56	.5	2	-	0	5		-	2	3		0.0									0	0	7	40	53	141,375	*
56		2	-	0	5		-	1	4		0.0									0	0	5	36	60	120,115	*
55	.5	2	-	0	6		-	1	3		0.0									0	0	3	31	66	100,203	*
55		1	-	1	5		-	1	4		Out										0	2	27	72	81,311	*
54	.5	1	-	1	6		-	1	3		Out										0	1	22	77	64,253	*
54		1	-	1	7		-	1	2		Out										0	1	18	81	49,415	*
53	.5	1	-	0	6		-	2	3		Out											0	15	85	37,472	*
53		1	-	0	6		-	1	4		Out										0	0	12	88	28,531	*
52	.5	1	-	0	7		-	1	3		Out											0	9	91	20,936	*
52		1	-	0	8		-	1	2		Out											0	7	93	14,613	*
51	.5	1	-	0	8		-	0	3		Out											0	5	95	9,788	*
51		0	-	0	6		-	2	4		Out												4	96	6,217	*
50	.5	0	-	0	6		-	1	5		Out											0	2	98	3,976	*
50		0	-	0	7		-	1	4		Out											0	2	98	2,574	*
49	.5	0	-	0	8		-	1	3		Out												1	99	1,554	*
49		0	-	0	8		-	0	4		Out												1	99	812	*
48	.5	0	-	0	9		-	0	3		Out												1	99	348	*
47.5	-48										Out													100	146	*
47		0	-	0	12		-	0	0		Out												0	100	807

Total:											25.6	%				0	0	1	9	15	20	22	20	13	7,732,503

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Amur 2 Dinamo R 4	+0.6
Sibir 1 Dynamo M 4	-0.1
Metallurg Nk 1 Dynamo Mn 4	-0.0

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Traktor 2 AK Bars 5	-0.1
Metallurg Mg 6 Lada 0	-0.1
Avtomobilist 2 Neftekhimik 1 (so)	+0.1

What If

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

83		12	-	0	0		-	0	0									0		15	4	80
82		11	-	1	0		-	0	0											18		82
81		10	-	2	0		-	0	0											4		92		4
80	.5	11	-	0	0		-	0	1											13		83		4
80		10	-	1	0		-	1	0											4		94	1	1
79	.5	10	-	1	0		-	0	1											3		94	2	2
79		10	-	1	1		-	0	0											2		91	2	5
78	.5	9	-	2	0		-	0	1													89	3	8
78		9	-	2	1		-	0	0													89	2	8
77	.5	9	-	1	0		-	1	1											0		83	3	13
77		9	-	1	1		-	1	0											0		77	2	21	0
76	.5	9	-	1	1		-	0	1											0		75	1	23	0	0
76		8	-	2	1		-	1	0											0		70	1	28	0	0
75	.5	8	-	2	1		-	0	1											0		67	1	32	0	1
75		8	-	1	0		-	1	2											0		59	1	39	0	1
74	.5	8	-	1	1		-	1	1											0		54	0	43	0	1	0
74		8	-	1	1		-	0	2													47	0	50	0	2	0
73	.5	8	-	1	2		-	0	1											0		42	0	53	0	4	0	0	0
73		7	-	2	1		-	0	2											0		35	0	58	0	6	0	0	0	0
72	.5	7	-	2	2		-	0	1													29	0	61	0	8	0	0	0	0
72		7	-	1	1		-	1	2													24	0	64	0	11	0	0	0	0
71	.5	7	-	1	2		-	1	1													19	0	64	0	15	0	0	0	0
71		7	-	1	2		-	0	2													15		64	0	19	0	1	1	0	0
70	.5	6	-	2	2		-	1	1													11		62	0	24	0	1	1	0	0
70		6	-	2	2		-	0	2													8		59	0	29	0	1	2	1	0
69	.5	6	-	1	2		-	2	1													6		54	0	34	0	2	3	1	0
69		6	-	1	2		-	1	2													4		49	0	38	0	2	4	2	0	0
68	.5	6	-	1	3		-	1	1													2		43	0	42	0	2	6	4	0	0
68		5	-	2	2		-	1	2													1		37	0	45	0	2	8	6	1	0
67	.5	5	-	2	3		-	1	1													1		30	0	46	0	2	9	10	1	0
67		5	-	1	2		-	2	2													0		24		46	0	2	11	14	2	0
66	.5	5	-	1	2		-	1	3													0		18		44	0	2	12	20	4	0	0
66		5	-	1	3		-	1	2													0		14		41	0	1	12	26	6	0	0
65	.5	5	-	1	4		-	1	1													0		10		37	0	1	11	31	9	1	0
65		4	-	2	3		-	1	2													0		7		32	0	1	10	36	14	2	0
64	.5	5	-	0	3		-	1	3													0		4		26	0	0	8	39	19	3	0
64		4	-	1	3		-	2	2													0		3		21	0	0	6	41	24	5	0
63	.5	4	-	1	3		-	1	3													0		2		16		0	5	40	30	7	0
63		4	-	1	4		-	1	2															1		12		0	3	37	35	11	1	0
62	.5	4	-	1	4		-	0	3															0		8		0	2	33	40	15	1	0
62		3	-	2	4		-	1	2													0		0		5		0	1	28	42	20	2	0
61	.5	4	-	0	4		-	1	3															0		3		0	1	23	43	26	4	0
61		3	-	1	4		-	2	2															0		2		0	0	18	42	31	6	0
60	.5	3	-	1	4		-	1	3															0		1		0	0	13	40	37	9	0
60		3	-	1	5		-	1	2															0		1			0	9	36	42	12	0
59	.5	3	-	1	5		-	0	3															0		0			0	6	31	45	17	0
59		3	-	0	4		-	1	4															0		0			0	4	26	48	22	0
58	.5	3	-	0	5		-	1	3																	0			0	3	21	48	28	0
58		2	-	1	4		-	1	4																	0			0	2	16	48	34	1
57	.5	2	-	1	5		-	1	3																	0			0	1	12	45	40	1
57		2	-	1	6		-	1	2																	0				0	9	42	47	2
56	.5	2	-	0	5		-	2	3																	0				0	6	38	53	2
56		2	-	0	5		-	1	4																	0				0	4	33	59	3
55	.5	2	-	0	6		-	1	3																	0				0	3	29	64	5
55		1	-	1	5		-	1	4																					0	2	24	68	7
54	.5	1	-	1	6		-	1	3																					0	1	20	71	9
54		1	-	1	7		-	1	2																					0	1	15	73	11
53	.5	1	-	0	6		-	2	3																						0	12	73	14
53		1	-	0	6		-	1	4																					0	0	9	73	17
52	.5	1	-	0	7		-	1	3																						0	7	72	21
52		1	-	0	8		-	1	2																						0	5	70	25
51	.5	1	-	0	8		-	0	3																						0	3	67	30
51		0	-	0	6		-	2	4																							3	63	34
50	.5	0	-	0	6		-	1	5																							1	60	39
50		0	-	0	7		-	1	4																						0	1	56	43
49	.5	0	-	0	8		-	1	3																							1	52	48
49		0	-	0	8		-	0	4																							0	43	57
48	.5	0	-	0	9		-	0	3																							0	40	59
48		0	-	0	10		-	0	2																								34	66
47	.5	0	-	0	11		-	0	1																								20	80
47		0	-	0	12		-	0	0																								20	80

Total:																		0		0	0	1	0	9	0	15	0	0	4	17	21	19	12	1