How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Lethbridge 4 Calgary 2 +2.0
+0.2
Kootenay 2 Edmonton 5 +0.5
Regina 5 Tri-City 1 -0.2
Medicine Hat 1 Saskatoon 3 +0.2
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Kootenay vs Saskatoon-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0+0.0+0.3
Medicine Hat vs Edmonton-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Regina vs Swift Current-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3
Moose Jaw vs Red Deer-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lethbridge finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inScotty MunroChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsMemorial Trophy123456789101112Count
122510-0In100.0%1000129,320
113453-3InYes1002*
112454-2In83.3831712*
111444-3In93.393730*
110434-4In83.7841686*
109435-3In83.68416244*
108425-4In76.17624556*
107426-3In72.573271,381*
106416-4In65.7663403,085*
105417-3In59.460406,667*
104407-4In50.95149013,854*
103408-3In44.24555027,872*
102398-4In37.53862053,594*
101399-3In30.93268099,931*
100389-4In24.826740181,577*
99379-5In19.4207900315,115*
983710-4In14.61684100533,103*
973610-5In10.71287100879,140*
963611-4In7.59901001,397,098*
953511-5In5.06912002,164,766*
943512-4In3.14924003,254,687*
933412-5In1.83916004,757,356*
923413-4In1.029080006,773,738*
913313-5In0.5187111009,387,876*
903314-4In0.218214210012,671,037*
893214-5In0.107718410016,672,885*
883215-4In0.007021620021,384,769*
873115-5In0.0062241030026,759,359*
863116-4In0.0054251560032,679,290*
853016-5In0.00452422900038,936,283*
843017-4In0.003622281210045,292,432*
832917-5In0.002818341720051,457,526*
822918-4InNo02113392241057,135,790*
812818-5100.0%No01594126820061,937,270*
802819-4100.0No010640281430065,641,802*
792719-5100.0No6336282250067,981,504*
782720-4100.0No4131253081068,822,769*
772620-5100.0No212421391220068,121,868*
762621-4100.0No101816461630065,947,214*
752521-599.8No001311492070062,422,687*
742522-499.5No008750231210057,783,240*
732422-598.7No005447241910052,293,596*
722423-496.9No003241242830046,311,262*
712323-593.7No001134213660040,116,058*
702324-488.6No00102718431110033,990,117*
692224-581.1No000201347172028,157,751*
682225-471.5No000149482540022,826,210*
672125-560.2No00096453370018,097,333*
662126-448.2No00643940111014,039,388*
652026-536.6No00323144182010,641,677*
642027-426.1No0021234525407,888,779*
631927-517.6No010164332705,721,221*
621928-411.1No00001038391104,055,026*
611828-56.5No000632441702,811,959*
601829-43.6No00325462511,903,103*
591729-51.9No00218463321,257,980*
581730-40.9No0011242423812,986*
571630-50.4No00837496515,659*
561631-40.1No00431569317,267*
551531-50.1No02246113191,063*
541532-40.0No01186318112,756*
531432-50.0No0113632464,230*
521433-4OutNo08603135,823*
511333-5OutNo05563919,756*
501334-4OutNo03504710,220*
491234-5OutNo0243555,450*
481235-4OutNo138612,705*
471135-5OutNo032681,398*
461136-4OutNo2377636*
451137-3OutNo2080302*
441037-4OutNo1783129*
431038-3OutNo128859*
421039-2OutNo89226*
41838-5OutNo89213*
20-40OutNo100129,327*
Total:94.4%0.1%016719122291041001,143,960,080

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Lethbridge 4 Calgary 2 -0.4
Medicine Hat 1 Saskatoon 3 -0.1
Brandon 6 Red Deer 3 -0.1
Kootenay 2 Edmonton 5 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Moose Jaw vs Red Deer-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Medicine Hat vs Edmonton-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122
122510-01000
113453-3100
112454-28317
111444-3937
110434-48416
109435-38416
108425-47624
107426-372027
106416-4660340
105417-359040
104407-4510490
103408-3440550
102398-43716200
101399-33116800
100389-42517400
99379-519179000
983710-4151840100
973610-51118701000
963611-4718901000
953511-5519012000
943512-4319024000
933412-5218936000
923413-41185580000
913313-5018071101000
903314-4007210141201000
893214-5006214171401000
883215-4005219193602000
873115-50040221951003000
863116-400292518715050000
853016-50020261510210800000
843017-4001224111127112110000
832917-50072161232315220000
822918-4031831033618440100
812818-50113183110197802000
802819-4019052614171114030000
792719-506031917131421050000
782720-40401131891729171100
772620-502017175163541022000
762621-401004142143781153000
752521-5000021111035141286000
742522-4000170629211012111100
732422-500005042126816163100
722423-400030214285182083000
712323-500010182631821156100
702324-4000100423116192492000
692224-5000002181131532135100
682225-40000113091038169200
672125-50000090653917166100
662126-4000604336162212200
652026-5000302130122620500
642027-4000201023826281010
631927-500100016522351730
621928-400000010317372660
611828-50000061123634110
601829-40003173140181
591729-50002042443261
581730-4001021742353
571630-500011139445
561631-40000733528
551531-50004265812
541532-4002196117
531432-5001146224
521433-4095931
511333-5065538
501334-4045046
491234-5024355
481235-413960
471135-503267
461136-402377
451137-32080
441037-41783
431038-31288
421039-2892
41838-5892
20-40100
Total:008833127661484555221100