Orangeville Ice Crushers Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to Tottenham 5-12, playoff odds down 0.05 to 0.004%

23 points 11 21-1 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orangeville 5 Tottenham 12	-0.1		-0.4
Colborne 3 Meaford 7			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Haliburton vs Sturgeon Falls			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Orangeville finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Top	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	Count

41	9	0		-	0	0		1.7	%	No															0	2	12	32	34	17	4	0	0										627,064
40	8	0		-	1	0		0.2		No															0	0	3	16	33	32	14	2	0										1,326,052
39	8	1		-	0	0		0.0		No															0	0	1	6	23	36	26	7	0	0									4,112,385
	7	0		-	2	0		0.0		No																0	0	5	19	36	30	10	0	0									1,292,749
38	7	1		-	1	0		0.0		No																0	0	1	9	28	39	21	1	0									8,018,628
	6	0		-	3	0		0.0		No																0	0	1	7	25	41	25	2	0									735,365
37	7	2		-	0	0		0.0		No																0	0	0	3	17	40	35	4	0									12,433,838
	6	1		-	2	0		Out		No																	0	0	2	14	39	39	5	0									6,843,542
	5	0		-	4	0		Out		No																		0	1	11	37	44	7	0									268,568
36	6	2		-	1	0		Out		No																	0	0	1	6	30	50	12	1									21,220,692
	5	1		-	3	0		Out		No																	0	0	0	5	27	53	15	1									3,335,543
	4	0		-	5	0		Out		No																		0	0	3	23	54	18	2									65,747
35	6	3		-	0	0		Out		No																	0	0	0	2	18	54	23	3									21,939,224
	5	2		-	2	0		Out		No																	0	0	0	1	16	54	25	3									15,518,590
	4	1		-	4	0		Out		No																		0	0	1	13	52	30	5									1,015,658
	3	0		-	6	0		Out		No																			0	0	9	50	35	6									10,681
34	5	3		-	1	0		Out		No																		0	0	0	8	46	37	8	0								32,096,532
	4	2		-	3	0		Out		No																			0	0	6	44	40	10	0								6,305,935
	3	1		-	5	0		Out		No																				0	4	40	44	12	0								199,982	*
33	5	4		-	0	0		Out		No																		0	0	0	3	34	46	17	0								24,884,459
	4	3		-	2	0		Out		No																			0	0	2	32	47	19	0								19,554,671
	3	2		-	4	0		Out		No																			0	0	2	27	49	22	0								1,537,862
	2	1		-	6	0		Out		No																				0	1	22	50	27	0								24,325	*
32	4	4		-	1	0		Out		No																			0	0	1	19	48	31	0								30,339,052
	3	3		-	3	0		Out		No																				0	1	17	48	34	0								6,363,071
	2	2		-	5	0		Out		No																				0	0	14	47	39	0								224,469
	1	1		-	7	0		Out		No																					0	11	45	44	0								1,726	*
31	4	5		-	0	0		Out		No																				0	0	10	43	46	1								18,809,579
	3	4		-	2	0		Out		No																				0	0	9	42	48	1								14,786,164
	2	3		-	4	0		Out		No																				0	0	7	40	52	1								1,163,400
	1	2		-	6	0		Out		No																					0	5	36	58	1								18,183	*
30	3	5		-	1	0		Out		No																				0	0	4	32	62	3	0							18,351,817
	2	4		-	3	0		Out		No																					0	3	30	64	4	0							3,606,910
	1	3		-	5	0		Out		No																					0	2	27	67	4	0							113,905	*
29	3	6		-	0	0		Out		No																					0	1	21	71	6	0							9,487,758
	2	5		-	2	0		Out		No																					0	1	20	72	8	0	0						6,712,435
	1	4		-	4	0		Out		No																					0	1	17	73	9	0							440,885
	0	3		-	6	0		Out		No																						0	14	75	11	0							4,660
28	2	6		-	1	0		Out		No																					0	0	11	73	15	0	0						6,937,610
	1	5		-	3	0		Out		No																						0	9	71	18	1	0						1,088,639
	0	4		-	5	0		Out		No																						0	8	70	21	1							21,498
27	2	7		-	0	0		Out		No																						0	5	68	25	1	0						3,076,788
	1	6		-	2	0		Out		No																						0	4	65	29	2	0	0					1,692,979
	0	5		-	4	0		Out		No																						0	3	62	32	3	0						66,290
26	1	7		-	1	0		Out		No																						0	2	52	41	6	0	0	0				1,497,398
	0	6		-	3	0		Out		No																						0	1	45	45	8	0	0					137,549
25	1	8		-	0	0		Out		No																						0	0	37	49	13	1	0	0				580,394
	0	7		-	2	0		Out		No																							0	31	50	17	2	0	0				182,749
24	0	8		-	1	0		Out		No																							0	17	46	30	7	1	0				141,790
23	0	9		-	0	0		Out		No																							0	7	33	39	17	3	0	0			72,834

Total:								0.0	%	No															0	0	0	0	1	3	10	28	30	25	2	0	0	0	0	0			309,288,624

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orangeville 5 Tottenham 12	+0.4
Colborne 3 Meaford 7	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Haliburton vs Sturgeon Falls	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

41	9	0		-	0	0																0	2	12	32	34	17	4	0	0
40	8	0		-	1	0																0	0	3	16	33	32	14	2	0
39	8	1		-	0	0																0	0	1	6	23	36	26	7	0	0
	7	0		-	2	0																	0	0	5	19	36	30	10	0	0
38	7	1		-	1	0																	0	0	1	9	28	39	21	1	0
	6	0		-	3	0																	0	0	1	7	25	41	25	2	0
37	7	2		-	0	0																	0	0	0	3	17	40	35	4	0
	6	1		-	2	0																		0	0	2	14	39	39	5	0
	5	0		-	4	0																			0	1	11	37	44	7	0
36	6	2		-	1	0																		0	0	1	6	30	50	12	1
	5	1		-	3	0																		0	0	0	5	27	53	15	1
	4	0		-	5	0																			0	0	3	23	54	18	2
35	6	3		-	0	0																		0	0	0	2	18	54	23	3
	5	2		-	2	0																		0	0	0	1	16	54	25	3
	4	1		-	4	0																			0	0	1	13	52	30	5
	3	0		-	6	0																				0	0	9	50	35	6
34	5	3		-	1	0																			0	0	0	8	46	37	8	0
	4	2		-	3	0																				0	0	6	44	40	10	0
	3	1		-	5	0																					0	4	40	44	12	0
33	5	4		-	0	0																			0	0	0	3	34	46	17	0
	4	3		-	2	0																				0	0	2	32	47	19	0
	3	2		-	4	0																				0	0	2	27	49	22	0
	2	1		-	6	0																					0	1	22	50	27	0
32	4	4		-	1	0																				0	0	1	19	48	31	0
	3	3		-	3	0																					0	1	17	48	34	0
	2	2		-	5	0																					0	0	14	47	39	0
	1	1		-	7	0																						0	11	45	44	0
31	4	5		-	0	0																					0	0	10	43	46	1
	3	4		-	2	0																					0	0	9	42	48	1
	2	3		-	4	0																					0	0	7	40	52	1
	1	2		-	6	0																						0	5	36	58	1
30	3	5		-	1	0																					0	0	4	32	62	3	0
	2	4		-	3	0																						0	3	30	64	4	0
	1	3		-	5	0																						0	2	27	67	4	0
29	3	6		-	0	0																						0	1	21	71	6	0
	2	5		-	2	0																						0	1	20	72	8	0	0
	1	4		-	4	0																						0	1	17	73	9	0
	0	3		-	6	0																							0	14	75	11	0
28	2	6		-	1	0																						0	0	11	73	15	0	0
	1	5		-	3	0																							0	9	71	18	1	0
	0	4		-	5	0																							0	8	70	21	1
27	2	7		-	0	0																							0	5	68	25	1	0
	1	6		-	2	0																							0	4	65	29	2	0	0
	0	5		-	4	0																							0	3	62	32	3	0
26	1	7		-	1	0																							0	2	52	41	6	0	0	0
	0	6		-	3	0																							0	1	45	45	8	0	0
25	1	8		-	0	0																							0	0	37	49	13	1	0	0
	0	7		-	2	0																								0	31	50	17	2	0	0
24	0	8		-	1	0																								0	17	46	30	7	1	0
23	0	9		-	0	0																								0	7	33	39	17	3	0	0

Total:																						0	0	0	0	1	3	10	28	30	25	2	0	0	0	0	0