Kalamazoo Wings Playoff Chances 2012-2013

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.5 to 64.1%

61 points 28 23-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Everblades 2 Royals 4	+0.8
Komets 5 Walleye 4 (ot)	*-0.2
Jackals 5 Nailers 1	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
IceMen vs Walleye	+0.2-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Solar Bears vs Royals	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wings finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in			Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Brabham	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Count

93	16	0		-	0	In		No	10	67	0	23	0										44,156
92	15	0		-	1	In		No	4	54	0	40	2	0									40,777
91	15	1		-	0	In		No	2	40	1	51	6	0									208,802	*
90	14	1		-	1	In		No	0	25	2	58	14	1									467,341	*
89	14	2		-	0	In		No	0	14	2	56	25	3	0								1,357,454	*
88	13	2		-	1	In		No	0	6	2	47	37	7	0	0							2,451,920	*
87	13	3		-	0	In		No	0	2	2	35	45	15	0	0							2,562,127
	12	2		-	2	In		No	0	2	1	33	47	17	0	0							2,588,073	*
86	12	3		-	1	100.0	%	No	0	0	1	21	48	28	2	0	0						7,755,142	*
85	11	3		-	2	100.0		No		0	0	10	40	42	7	0	0						6,395,167
	12	4		-	0	100.0		No		0	0	11	41	41	7	0	0						6,520,101	*
84	11	4		-	1	100.0		No		0	0	4	27	48	19	3	0						12,138,059
	10	3		-	3	100.0		No		0	0	4	25	48	20	3	0						4,440,956	*
83	10	4		-	2	99.6		No		0	0	1	13	42	34	10	0	0					11,814,081
	11	5		-	0	99.6		No		0	0	1	14	42	33	9	0	0					11,116,097	*
82	10	5		-	1	97.6		No		0	0	0	5	27	43	23	2	0					17,932,448
	9	4		-	3	97.3		No		0	0	0	4	25	43	25	3	0					7,503,095	*
81	9	5		-	2	91.2		No			0	0	1	12	38	40	9	0					15,887,941	*
	10	6		-	0	91.9		No			0	0	1	13	39	39	8	0	0				11,356,808
	8	4		-	4	90.5		No			0	0	1	11	37	41	9	0	0				2,711,413
80	9	6		-	1	78.6		No			0	0	0	4	25	50	21	0	0				19,936,625
	8	5		-	3	77.2		No			0	0	0	3	23	50	22	0	0				9,015,162	*
79	8	6		-	2	59.9		No			0	0	0	1	12	48	39	2	0	0			15,642,765
	9	7		-	0	61.6		No			0	0	0	1	12	48	37	1	0	0			10,814,248
	7	5		-	4	57.9		No				0	0	1	11	47	40	2	0				3,005,407	*
78	8	7		-	1	39.9		No					0	0	4	36	55	5	0	0			17,681,193	*
	7	6		-	3	38.1		No				0	0	0	4	34	56	6	0	0			7,216,279
77	7	7		-	2	22.2		No					0	0	1	21	65	13	1	0			11,749,545
	8	8		-	0	23.9		No					0	0	1	23	65	11	0	0			8,059,990
	6	6		-	4	20.4		No						0	1	20	64	15	1	0			2,292,332	*
76	7	8		-	1	10.7		No			0			0	0	10	64	23	2	0	0		11,154,954
	6	7		-	3	9.4		No						0	0	9	62	26	3	0			5,168,238	*
75	6	8		-	2	3.9		No						0	0	4	52	37	7	0	0		6,707,511
	7	9		-	0	4.3		No						0	0	4	54	35	6	0	0		5,975,166	*
74	6	9		-	1	1.2		No							0	1	38	46	14	1	0		5,664,990
	5	8		-	3	1.0		No							0	1	34	47	17	1	0		2,499,845	*
73	5	9		-	2	0.3		No							0	0	21	48	28	3	0		2,897,559
	6	10		-	0	0.3		No							0	0	23	48	26	2	0		2,660,098	*
72	5	10		-	1	0.0		No								0	10	41	42	7	0	0	3,089,204	*
71	4	10		-	2	0.0		No								0	4	28	51	16	1	0	1,835,184	*
70	4	11		-	1	0.0		No								0	1	15	53	28	3	0	867,767	*
69	3	11		-	2	Out		No									0	6	45	41	8	0	447,601	*
68	3	12		-	1	Out		No									0	2	31	49	17	1	175,498	*
67	3	13		-	0	Out		No									0	0	19	49	28	3	77,352	*
66	2	13		-	1	Out		No										0	9	41	41	9	23,951	*
65	2	14		-	0	Out		No											4	29	48	18	8,996	*
64	1	14		-	1	Out		No											1	19	48	32	2,071	*
63	1	15		-	0	Out		No											0	8	41	51	620	*
62	0	15		-	1	Out		No												2	32	67	66
61	0	16		-	0	Out		No											0	1	17	83	30,291

Total:						64.1	%	No	0	0	0	3	8	13	16	23	25	8	3	0	0	0	279,992,466

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Everblades 2 Royals 4	-0.1
Eagles 4 Bulls 5 (so)	-0.0

Thursday	None

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23

93	16	0		-	0		0	2	21	60	16	0
92	15	0		-	1		0	1	10	53	35	2	0
91	15	1		-	0			0	4	41	49	6	0	0
90	14	1		-	1			0	1	25	58	15	1	0
89	14	2		-	0			0	0	12	55	28	5	0	0
88	13	2		-	1			0	0	5	41	39	13	2	0	0
87	13	3		-	0				0	1	25	42	25	6	1	0	0
	12	2		-	2				0	1	23	42	26	7	1	0	0
86	12	3		-	1				0	0	11	33	36	17	3	0	0	0				0
85	11	3		-	2					0	3	18	35	30	12	2	0	0	0			0
	12	4		-	0				0	0	4	19	36	29	11	2	0	0	0			0
84	11	4		-	1				0	0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0	0			0
	10	3		-	3					0	1	6	22	35	26	9	2	0	0			0
83	10	4		-	2					0	0	2	10	26	33	21	7	1	0			0	0
	11	5		-	0					0	0	2	10	26	33	21	6	1	0			0	0
82	10	5		-	1						0	0	2	12	28	32	18	4	0			2	0
	9	4		-	3						0	0	2	11	27	33	19	5	0			3	0
81	9	5		-	2						0	0	0	3	14	29	30	13	2			9	0
	10	6		-	0						0	0	0	4	15	30	30	13	2			8	0	0
	8	4		-	4						0	0	0	3	13	29	30	14	2			9	0	0
80	9	6		-	1						0	0	0	1	4	16	30	23	5			21	0	0
	8	5		-	3						0	0	0	0	4	16	30	23	5			22	0	0
79	8	6		-	2							0	0	0	1	6	19	25	9	0		39	2	0	0
	9	7		-	0							0	0	0	1	6	20	26	9	0		37	1	0	0
	7	5		-	4								0	0	1	5	18	25	9	0		40	2	0
78	8	7		-	1								0	0	0	1	8	19	11	0		55	5	0	0
	7	6		-	3								0	0	0	1	8	18	11	0		56	6	0	0
77	7	7		-	2									0	0	0	2	10	10	0		65	13	1	0
	8	8		-	0									0	0	0	3	11	11	0		65	11	0	0
	6	6		-	4									0	0	0	2	9	9	0		64	15	1	0
76	7	8		-	1										0	0	0	4	6	0		64	23	2	0	0
	6	7		-	3										0	0	0	3	6	0		62	26	3	0
75	6	8		-	2											0	0	1	3	0		52	37	7	0	0
	7	9		-	0										0	0	0	1	3	0		56	34	5	0	0
74	6	9		-	1											0	0	0	1	0		38	46	14	1	0
	5	8		-	3												0	0	1	0		34	47	17	1	0
73	5	9		-	2												0	0	0	0		21	48	28	3	0
	6	10		-	0												0	0	0	0		23	48	26	2	0
72	5	10		-	1													0	0	0		10	41	42	7	0	0
71	4	10		-	2													0	0	0		4	28	51	16	1	0
70	4	11		-	1														0	0		1	15	53	28	3	0
69	3	11		-	2																	0	6	45	41	8	0
68	3	12		-	1																	0	2	31	49	17	1
67	3	13		-	0																	0	0	19	49	28	3
66	2	13		-	1																		0	9	41	41	9
65	2	14		-	0																			4	29	48	18
64	1	14		-	1																			1	19	48	32
63	1	15		-	0																			0	8	41	51
62	0	15		-	1																				2	32	67
61	0	16		-	0																			0	1	17	83	0

Total:							0	0	0	0	2	4	6	8	9	11	12	10	4	0		25	8	3	0	0	0	0