Stockton Thunder Playoff Chances

Lost to Victoria 6-7 (so), average seed up 0.07 to 3.1

79 points 34 22-11

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Average seed
Stockton 6 Victoria 7 (so)	-0.1
Bakersfield 3 Las Vegas 1	0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway

Saturday	100.0*	Average seed
Stockton vs Victoria	0.10.10.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Bakersfield vs Las Vegas	0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Chances based on how well the Stockton finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

89	5	0		-	0	Yes		74	26						503,474
88	4	0		-	1	Yes		59	41						642,711
87	4	1		-	0	Yes		37	63						1,526,958
	3	0		-	2	Yes		37	63						318,063
86	3	1		-	1	Yes		22	77	2					1,510,086
	2	0		-	3	Yes		18	75	6					76,085
85	3	2		-	0	Yes		6	83	10					1,797,777
	2	1		-	2	Yes		3	70	26					542,706
	1	0		-	4	Yes		1	53	46					8,691
84	2	2		-	1	Yes		1	52	47					1,289,562
	1	1		-	3	Yes		0	34	66					83,477
	0	0		-	5	Yes			14	86					391
83	2	3		-	0	Yes			25	75					1,021,118
	1	2		-	2	Yes			10	90					297,474
	0	1		-	4	Yes			2	98					4,699
82	1	3		-	1	Yes			4	96					471,886
	0	2		-	3	Yes			0	100					22,626
81	1	4		-	0	Yes				99	1				281,392
	0	3		-	2	Yes				99	1				53,500
80	0	4		-	1	Yes				98	2				62,919
79	0	5		-	0	Yes				92	8				31,664

Total:						Yes		18	54	28	0				10,547,259

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stockton 6 Victoria 7 (so)	-0.2
Bakersfield 3 Las Vegas 1	0.0
Trenton 3 Kalamazoo 2 (so)	0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stockton vs Victoria	0.30.30.3-0.2-0.2-0.6
Bakersfield vs Las Vegas	0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.1
Elmira vs Kalamazoo	0.10.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred outcome is not statistically different from zero (< 3σ), so it might actually have no effect.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish regular season at lottery seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

89	5	0		-	0			4	70	23	3
88	4	0		-	1			1	58	28	13
87	4	1		-	0			0	37	34	29
	3	0		-	2			0	37	34	29
86	3	1		-	1			0	22	24	53	2
	2	0		-	3			0	18	23	52	6
85	3	2		-	0				6	16	67	10
	2	1		-	2				3	14	57	26
	1	0		-	4				1	10	43	46
84	2	2		-	1				1	4	48	40	7
	1	1		-	3				0	3	31	57	9
	0	0		-	5					1	14	74	12
83	2	3		-	0					1	24	54	21
	1	2		-	2					0	10	64	26
	0	1		-	4					0	2	70	28
82	1	3		-	1					0	4	33	63
	0	2		-	3					0	0	34	66
81	1	4		-	0							11	88	0	0
	0	3		-	2							11	88	0	0
80	0	4		-	1							1	97	1	2
79	0	5		-	0								92	1	7

Total:								0	18	16	37	18	10	0	0