Las Vegas Wranglers Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Steelheads 1-4, playoff odds down 3.2 to 76.1%

11 points 5 11-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Brabham	100.0*	Average seed
Steelheads 4 Las Vegas 1	-3.7		-0.1		-0.3
Bakersfield 1 San Francisco 5	+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Brabham	100.0*	Average seed
San Francisco vs Bakersfield	+0.8-0.8-0.8-1.3-1.3-0.2
Colorado vs Alaska	-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1
Ontario vs Stockton	+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Las Vegas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Brabham		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Count

105	-121						In		100.0	%	100													136,734	*
104		45	7		-	3	In		98.2		100		0											547	*
103		44	7		-	4	In		97.1		100	0	0											1,258	*
102		44	8		-	3	In		95.6		99	1	1											2,770	*
101		43	8		-	4	In		93.6		98	1	1											5,464	*
100		42	8		-	5	In		90.2		97	2	1											11,287	*
99		42	9		-	4	In		86.4		96	2	2	0										21,562	*
98		41	9		-	5	In		80.7		94	3	3	0										40,159	*
97		41	10		-	4	In		73.0		91	5	4	0										72,189	*
96		40	10		-	5	In		63.8		87	7	6	0										128,994	*
95		40	11		-	4	In		53.5		82	9	9	0										219,507	*
94		39	11		-	5	In		42.2		76	12	12	0										368,687	*
93		39	12		-	4	In		30.8		68	16	16	0	0									598,240	*
92		38	12		-	5	In		20.4		59	20	21	1	0									944,143	*
91		38	13		-	4	In		12.0		49	24	26	1	0	0								1,456,414	*
90		37	13		-	5	In		6.1		38	28	31	3	0	0								2,187,348	*
89		37	14		-	4	In		2.6		28	30	37	5	0	0	0							3,214,808	*
88		36	14		-	5	In		0.8		19	31	41	8	0	0	0							4,594,429	*
87		35	14		-	6	In		0.2		11	30	44	14	1	0	0							6,425,010	*
86		35	15		-	5	In		0.0		6	27	43	21	2	0	0	0						8,770,397	*
85		34	15		-	6	In		0.0		3	23	39	30	5	0	0	0						11,703,228	*
84		34	16		-	5	In		0.0		1	18	32	38	10	1	0	0						15,250,433	*
83		33	16		-	6	In		No		0	13	23	43	18	2	0	0						19,456,706	*
82		33	17		-	5	In		No		0	9	15	42	28	6	0	0						24,265,259	*
81		32	17		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	6	8	36	38	12	1	0	0					29,615,395	*
80		32	18		-	5	100.0		No		0	3	4	26	44	21	2	0	0					35,351,418	*
79		31	18		-	6	100.0		No		0	2	1	16	43	32	6	0	0					41,332,435	*
78		31	19		-	5	100.0		No			1	0	8	36	41	13	1	0					47,299,994	*
77		30	19		-	6	100.0		No			0	0	4	26	46	22	2	0					53,009,810	*
76		30	20		-	5	99.9		No			0	0	1	16	44	32	6	0					58,169,871	*
75		29	20		-	6	99.5		No			0	0	0	9	38	41	12	0					62,538,702	*
74		29	21		-	5	98.6		No			0	0	0	4	28	47	20	1					65,839,635	*
73		28	21		-	6	96.7		No			0	0	0	2	19	47	29	3					67,944,682	*
72		28	22		-	5	93.4		No			0	0	0	1	12	43	38	7					68,687,272	*
71		27	22		-	6	88.5		No			0	0	0	0	7	36	46	12					68,057,740	*
70		27	23		-	5	81.9		No			0	0	0	0	4	28	50	18					66,081,264	*
69		26	23		-	6	74.0		No			0	0	0	0	2	20	52	26					62,882,507	*
68		26	24		-	5	65.1		No			0		0	0	1	14	50	35					58,656,206	*
67		25	24		-	6	55.8		No			0		0	0	0	9	46	44					53,637,552	*
66		25	25		-	5	46.6		No					0	0	0	6	41	53					48,063,595	*
65		24	25		-	6	37.9		No						0	0	3	35	62					42,223,603	*
64		24	26		-	5	30.1		No						0	0	2	28	70					36,357,862	*
63		23	26		-	6	23.3		No						0	0	1	22	77					30,672,381	*
62		23	27		-	5	17.6		No						0	0	1	17	82					25,382,372	*
61		22	27		-	6	13.0		No							0	0	13	87					20,590,210	*
60		22	28		-	5	9.4		No							0	0	9	91					16,351,008	*
59		21	28		-	6	6.7		No							0	0	7	93					12,733,354	*
58		21	29		-	5	4.6		No							0	0	5	95					9,720,632	*
57		20	29		-	6	3.1		No							0	0	3	97					7,261,219	*
56		20	30		-	5	2.1		No								0	2	98					5,323,997	*
55		19	30		-	6	1.4		No								0	1	99					3,822,315	*
54		19	31		-	5	0.9		No								0	1	99					2,687,139	*
53		18	31		-	6	0.6		No								0	1	99					1,847,943	*
52		18	32		-	5	0.3		No								0	0	100					1,245,442	*
51		17	32		-	6	0.2		No								0	0	100					822,193	*
50		17	33		-	5	0.1		No								0	0	100					532,451	*
49		16	33		-	6	0.1		No								0	0	100					337,895	*
48		16	34		-	5	0.1		No									0	100					206,989	*
47		15	34		-	6	0.0		No									0	100					126,611	*
46		15	35		-	5	0.0		No									0	100					74,804	*
45		14	35		-	6	0.0		No									0	100					43,075	*
44		14	36		-	5	0.0		No									0	100					24,151	*
43		14	37		-	4	0.0		No									0	100					13,395	*
42		13	37		-	5	0.0		No									0	100					7,427	*
11	-41						Out		No										100					143,937	*

Total:							76.1	%	0.1	%	1	2	3	5	9	14	19	24	24					1,205,596,056

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Steelheads 4 Las Vegas 1	+0.6
Bakersfield 1 San Francisco 5	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Bakersfield	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

107	-121						100
106		46	6		-	3	99	1
105		45	6		-	4	99	1
104		45	7		-	3	98	2
103		44	7		-	4	97	3	0
102		44	8		-	3	96	4	0
101		43	8		-	4	94	6	0	0
100		42	8		-	5	90	9	0
99		42	9		-	4	86	13	1	0	0
98		41	9		-	5	81	18	2	0
97		41	10		-	4	73	24	3	0	0
96		40	10		-	5	64	30	5	1	0	0
95		40	11		-	4	53	36	9	1	0	0	0
94		39	11		-	5	42	40	15	3	0	0	0
93		39	12		-	4	31	41	21	6	1	0	0
92		38	12		-	5	20	38	28	11	2	0	0	0	0
91		38	13		-	4	12	31	33	17	5	1	0	0	0
90		37	13		-	5	6	22	33	25	11	3	0	0	0	0	0
89		37	14		-	4	3	13	27	30	18	7	2	0	0	0	0
88		36	14		-	5	1	6	19	29	26	14	5	1	0	0	0
87		35	14		-	6	0	2	10	22	28	22	11	3	1	0	0	0	0
86		35	15		-	5	0	1	4	13	24	27	20	9	3	1	0	0	0
85		34	15		-	6	0	0	1	5	14	25	26	18	8	2	0	0	0	0
84		34	16		-	5	0	0	0	1	6	16	25	26	17	7	2	0	0	0	0
83		33	16		-	6		0	0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	7	2	0	0	0
82		33	17		-	5		0	0	0	0	2	7	17	26	25	16	6	2	0	0	0
81		32	17		-	6			0	0	0	0	2	7	17	26	25	16	6	1	0	0	0
80		32	18		-	5				0	0	0	0	2	7	17	27	26	16	5	0	0	0
79		31	18		-	6				0	0	0	0	0	2	7	18	29	28	13	2	0	0	0	0	0
78		31	19		-	5					0	0	0	0	0	2	8	21	34	27	7	0	0	0	0	0
77		30	19		-	6					0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	30	39	17	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
76		30	20		-	5							0	0	0	0	0	4	19	42	29	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
75		29	20		-	6								0	0	0	0	1	10	38	40	11	0	0	0	0	0	0
74		29	21		-	5								0	0	0	0	0	5	29	46	19	0	0	1	0	0	0
73		28	21		-	6									0	0	0	0	2	19	47	29	0	1	1	1	0	0
72		28	22		-	5										0	0	0	1	12	43	38	0	1	2	2	1	0
71		27	22		-	6											0	0	0	7	36	46	0	1	2	4	3	1
70		27	23		-	5											0	0	0	4	28	50	0	0	2	6	7	2
69		26	23		-	6											0	0	0	2	20	52	0	0	2	8	11	5
68		26	24		-	5												0	0	1	14	50	0	0	2	8	16	9
67		25	24		-	6												0	0	0	9	46	0	0	1	7	20	16
66		25	25		-	5												0	0	0	6	41	0	0	1	6	22	24
65		24	25		-	6													0	0	3	35	0	0	0	4	23	34
64		24	26		-	5													0	0	2	28	0	0	0	3	22	45
63		23	26		-	6													0	0	1	22	0	0	0	2	20	55
62		23	27		-	5													0	0	1	17	0	0	0	1	17	64
61		22	27		-	6														0	0	13		0	0	1	14	72
60		22	28		-	5														0	0	9		0	0	0	11	79
59		21	28		-	6														0	0	7		0	0	0	8	85
58		21	29		-	5														0	0	5			0	0	6	89
57		20	29		-	6														0	0	3			0	0	5	92
56		20	30		-	5															0	2			0	0	3	95
55		19	30		-	6															0	1				0	2	96
54		19	31		-	5															0	1				0	2	98
53		18	31		-	6															0	1				0	1	98
52		18	32		-	5															0	0				0	1	99
51		17	32		-	6															0	0				0	1	99
50		17	33		-	5															0	0					0	99
49		16	33		-	6															0	0					0	100
48		16	34		-	5																0					0	100
47		15	34		-	6																0					0	100
46		15	35		-	5																0					0	100
45		14	35		-	6																0					0	100
44		14	36		-	5																0					0	100
43		14	37		-	4																0					0	100
42		13	37		-	5																0					0	100
41		13	38		-	4																					0	100
40		12	38		-	5																					0	100
39		12	39		-	4																					0	100
38		11	39		-	5																					0	100
11	-37																											100

Total:							0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	6	11	18	23	0	0	1	3	7	14