Las Vegas Wranglers Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Steelheads 1-4, playoff odds down 4.4 to 85%

11 points 5 11-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steelheads 4 Las Vegas 1	-1.8		-0.1
Bakersfield 1 San Francisco 5	-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
San Francisco vs Bakersfield	+0.3-1.0-1.0-1.1-1.1+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Las Vegas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Brabham		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Count

105	-121						In		Yes		100													422,639	*
104		44	6		-	5	In		81.8	%	91	9												11	*
103		44	7		-	4	In		78.6		89	4	7											28	*
102		44	8		-	3	In		61.1		83	15	2											54	*
101		43	8		-	4	In		53.7		69	18	12	1										121	*
100		42	8		-	5	In		41.1		61	27	11											309	*
99		42	9		-	4	In		36.0		58	30	12	0										727	*
98		41	9		-	5	In		28.3		52	31	17	1										1,614	*
97		40	9		-	6	In		17.8		39	37	23	1										3,442	*
96		40	10		-	5	In		11.4		32	38	28	2										7,000	*
95		39	10		-	6	In		6.2		24	39	34	3	0									14,243	*
94		39	11		-	5	In		3.1		17	39	39	5	0	0								28,062	*
93		38	11		-	6	In		1.4		11	37	44	8	0	0								53,366	*
92		38	12		-	5	In		0.5		7	33	47	13	0	0								98,873	*
91		37	12		-	6	In		0.1		4	28	49	19	1	0								178,684	*
90		37	13		-	5	In		0.0		2	23	47	26	2	0								314,459	*
89		36	13		-	6	In		0.0		1	18	43	34	5	0								537,728	*
88		36	14		-	5	In		0.0		0	13	36	42	9	0	0							902,383	*
87		35	14		-	6	In		0.0		0	9	29	47	15	1	0							1,468,908	*
86		35	15		-	5	In		No		0	6	21	49	22	2	0							2,336,057	*
85		34	15		-	6	In		No		0	4	14	47	31	4	0							3,624,894	*
84		34	16		-	5	In		No		0	2	9	42	39	8	0							5,503,214	*
83		33	16		-	6	In		No		0	1	5	34	46	13	0	0						8,138,669	*
82		32	16		-	7	In		No		0	1	3	26	50	20	0	0						11,774,127	*
81		32	17		-	6	In		No			0	1	18	51	28	1	0						16,666,021	*
80		31	17		-	7	In		No			0	1	12	48	38	2	0						23,026,982	*
79		31	18		-	6	In		No			0	0	7	42	47	4	0						31,120,466	*
78		30	18		-	7	In		No			0	0	4	34	54	7	0						41,125,827	*
77		30	19		-	6	In		No			0	0	2	27	60	11	0						53,191,145	*
76		29	19		-	7	100.0	%	No			0	0	1	19	63	17	0	0					67,273,227	*
75		29	20		-	6	100.0		No			0	0	0	13	63	24	0	0					83,241,515	*
74		28	20		-	7	100.0		No			0	0	0	8	60	31	1	0					100,824,876	*
73		28	21		-	6	100.0		No			0	0	0	5	54	39	1	0					119,531,978	*
72		27	21		-	7	100.0		No			0	0	0	3	48	47	2	0					138,673,717	*
71		27	22		-	6	100.0		No			0	0	0	1	40	54	4	0					157,499,565	*
70		26	22		-	7	99.9		No			0	0	0	1	32	60	7	0					175,115,016	*
69		26	23		-	6	99.8		No			0		0	0	25	64	11	0					190,608,336	*
68		25	23		-	7	99.5		No					0	0	19	65	16	0					203,136,300	*
67		25	24		-	6	99.0		No					0	0	13	64	21	1					212,007,553	*
66		24	24		-	7	98.1		No					0	0	9	61	28	2					216,595,595	*
65		24	25		-	6	96.6		No					0	0	6	56	35	3					216,729,271	*
64		23	25		-	7	94.2		No					0	0	4	49	42	6					212,311,187	*
63		23	26		-	6	90.9		No						0	2	41	48	9					203,632,506	*
62		22	26		-	7	86.4		No						0	1	33	52	14					191,251,459	*
61		22	27		-	6	80.7		No						0	1	26	54	19					175,842,402	*
60		21	27		-	7	73.9		No						0	0	19	55	26					158,307,929	*
59		21	28		-	6	66.2		No						0	0	14	53	34					139,528,071	*
58		20	28		-	7	57.9		No							0	9	49	42					120,346,181	*
57		20	29		-	6	49.4		No							0	6	43	51					101,585,988	*
56		19	29		-	7	41.1		No							0	4	37	59					83,930,007	*
55		19	30		-	6	33.3		No							0	2	31	67					67,867,158	*
54		18	30		-	7	26.2		No							0	1	25	74					53,688,854	*
53		18	31		-	6	20.1		No							0	1	19	80					41,538,071	*
52		17	31		-	7	15.0		No							0	0	15	85					31,432,435	*
51		17	32		-	6	10.9		No							0	0	11	89					23,262,230	*
50		17	33		-	5	7.7		No							0	0	8	92					16,830,925	*
49		16	33		-	6	5.4		No								0	5	95					11,900,004	*
48		16	34		-	5	3.6		No								0	4	96					8,224,932	*
47		15	34		-	6	2.4		No								0	2	98					5,551,393	*
46		15	35		-	5	1.5		No								0	2	98					3,666,587	*
45		14	35		-	6	1.0		No								0	1	99					2,359,657	*
44		14	36		-	5	0.6		No								0	1	99					1,480,988	*
43		13	36		-	6	0.4		No								0	0	100					908,169	*
42		13	37		-	5	0.2		No									0	100					543,342	*
41		12	37		-	6	0.1		No									0	100					317,071	*
40		12	38		-	5	0.1		No									0	100					180,083	*
39		11	38		-	6	0.0		No									0	100					99,574	*
38		11	39		-	5	0.0		No									0	100					53,425	*
37		10	39		-	6	0.0		No									0	100					28,088	*
36		10	40		-	5	0.0		No									0	100					14,387	*
35		9	40		-	6	0.0		No									0	100					7,019	*
11	-34						Out		No										100					428,904	*

Total:							85.0	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	3	17	37	26	15					3,738,896,028

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Steelheads 4 Las Vegas 1	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Bakersfield	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

105	-121						100
104		44	6		-	5	82	9	9
103		44	7		-	4	79	21
102		44	8		-	3	61	33	6
101		43	8		-	4	54	40	6	1
100		42	8		-	5	41	46	12	2
99		42	9		-	4	36	44	16	4	0
98		41	9		-	5	28	42	23	6	1
97		40	9		-	6	18	38	32	10	2	0
96		40	10		-	5	11	33	35	17	4	0	0
95		39	10		-	6	6	25	37	23	7	1	0	0
94		39	11		-	5	3	17	34	29	13	3	0	0	0
93		38	11		-	6	1	10	27	33	20	7	1	0	0
92		38	12		-	5	0	5	19	31	27	13	3	1	0	0
91		37	12		-	6	0	2	11	26	31	20	8	2	0	0	0	0
90		37	13		-	5	0	1	5	17	29	27	15	5	1	0	0	0
89		36	13		-	6	0	0	2	10	23	30	23	10	3	0	0	0
88		36	14		-	5	0	0	1	4	14	26	28	18	7	2	0	0	0
87		35	14		-	6	0	0	0	1	7	18	28	26	14	4	1	0	0	0
86		35	15		-	5		0	0	0	3	10	22	29	22	10	3	0	0	0
85		34	15		-	6		0	0	0	1	4	14	25	28	19	7	2	0	0	0
84		34	16		-	5		0	0	0	0	1	6	17	28	26	15	5	1	0	0
83		33	16		-	6			0	0	0	0	2	9	21	29	24	11	3	0	0
82		32	16		-	7				0	0	0	1	4	12	25	29	20	8	1	0
81		32	17		-	6					0	0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	4	0	0
80		31	17		-	7					0	0	0	0	2	8	21	31	27	10	1	0
79		31	18		-	6						0	0	0	0	3	12	27	35	21	2	0
78		30	18		-	7						0	0	0	0	1	6	19	37	34	4	0
77		30	19		-	6							0	0	0	0	2	10	33	46	8	0
76		29	19		-	7							0	0	0	0	1	5	25	55	14	0	0	0	0	0
75		29	20		-	6								0	0	0	0	2	17	59	22	0	0	0	0	0
74		28	20		-	7								0	0	0	0	1	10	59	30	1	0	0	0	0	0
73		28	21		-	6									0	0	0	0	6	54	39	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
72		27	21		-	7										0	0	0	3	48	47	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
71		27	22		-	6										0	0	0	2	40	54	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
70		26	22		-	7										0	0	0	1	32	60	7	0	0	0	0	0	0
69		26	23		-	6											0	0	0	25	64	11	0	0	0	0	0	0
68		25	23		-	7												0	0	19	65	16	0	0	0	0	0	0
67		25	24		-	6												0	0	13	64	21	0	0	0	0	0	0
66		24	24		-	7												0	0	9	61	28	0	0	0	1	1	0
65		24	25		-	6												0	0	6	56	35	0	0	0	1	2	1
64		23	25		-	7												0	0	4	49	42	0	0	0	1	3	1
63		23	26		-	6													0	2	41	48	0	0	0	2	5	3
62		22	26		-	7													0	1	33	52	0	0	0	2	7	5
61		22	27		-	6													0	1	26	54	0	0	0	2	9	9
60		21	27		-	7													0	0	19	54	0	0	0	2	11	14
59		21	28		-	6													0	0	14	53	0	0	0	1	12	20
58		20	28		-	7														0	9	49		0	0	1	13	28
57		20	29		-	6														0	6	43		0	0	1	13	37
56		19	29		-	7														0	4	37		0	0	1	12	46
55		19	30		-	6														0	2	31		0	0	0	11	55
54		18	30		-	7														0	1	25			0	0	9	64
53		18	31		-	6														0	1	19		0	0	0	8	72
52		17	31		-	7														0	0	15			0	0	6	79
51		17	32		-	6														0	0	11			0	0	5	84
50		17	33		-	5														0	0	8			0	0	4	89
49		16	33		-	6															0	5			0	0	3	92
48		16	34		-	5															0	4				0	2	95
47		15	34		-	6															0	2				0	1	96
46		15	35		-	5															0	2				0	1	98
45		14	35		-	6															0	1				0	1	98
44		14	36		-	5															0	1				0	0	99
43		13	36		-	6															0	0					0	99
42		13	37		-	5																0					0	100
41		12	37		-	6																0					0	100
40		12	38		-	5																0					0	100
39		11	38		-	6																0					0	100
38		11	39		-	5																0					0	100
37		10	39		-	6																0					0	100
36		10	40		-	5																0					0	100
35		9	40		-	6																0					0	100
34		9	41		-	5																					0	100
33		9	42		-	4																					0	100
32		8	42		-	5																						100
31		8	43		-	4																					0	100
11	-30																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	16	37	26	0	0	0	1	4	10