Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.
To help flush out each team’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of yesterday. The biggest movers up and down are in bold. The teams are ordered by their odds of making the playoffs (more interesting than their record.) Click on a team to see its big games and what if scenarios.
P G W-OT L-OT GD: Current points, games in hand (relative to the other teams listed), wins in regulation, wins in overtime, losses in regulation, losses in overtime, and goals delta (goals we scored - goals scored against us). A team gets 3 points for a win in regulation, 2 points for a win in overtime, 0 points for a loss in regulation, and 1 point for a loss in overtime.
Chance will make playoffs: This is what we care about. Out of the millions of simulated seasons they made the playoffs this percentage of the time. Sums the odds for the 8 seeds left of the red "playoff cut" line.
Automatic spot: Chance team will finish in the top position(s) league wide. This means different things in different leagues. For many soccer leagues those teams are promoted to a higher league next season. A country’s top soccer league won’t have this because there is nowhere to be promoted to. Some other leagues use this because there is a special award for finishing first.
Chance will finish regular season at seed: The numbers are rounded percentages, so a 0 means a very small number that rounded to 0. You can hover your mouse above a number to see the "full" percentage. If there is a blank space for a position the team never finished there after any of the millions of simulated seasons, although it still might be mathematically possible.
Avg: Average finishing position at the end of the season. It is the arithmetic mean, so if they come in 1st half the time and 5th the other half the average would be 3 (even though they never actually finish 3rd). The sign is flipped so negative is bad.
Relegated: Chance team will finish in the bottom position(s) league wide. This means different things in different leagues. For many soccer leagues those teams are demoted to a lower league next season. Some other leagues use this because there is a special dishonor for finishing last.
RPI: Ratings Percentage Index rank among all team in the league. Listed here for kicks, it does not factor into the simulation. Hover over the rank to see the actual RPI value and how many spots the rank changed (with the sign flipped so negative is bad).
Strength: Expected winning percentage the weighted method uses when simulating games. To calculate we start with (depending on the league) either the current winning percentage or a fancier formula based on goals delta . Then the percentage is regressed towards the mean, a fancy way of saying nudged back towards .500, a lot early in the season and less and less as the season progresses.