The last 10 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup races of the season work like a playoff called "The Chase".  The top 12 drivers get their points reset to 5000 (+10 for each win). 5000 is big enough that the other drivers, who keep their previous points, can&#8217;t catch up.<div class="helpP"></div>
Sports Club Stats calculates each driver&#8217;s odds of making and winning the Chase, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot.  It knows the season schedule and results for past races.  Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking results for each remaining race.  The <span class="b">weighted</span> method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The <span class="b">50/50</span> method gives each of the top 43 drivers an equal chance of finishing in any of the 43 spots, like picking numbers from a hat..  When it&#8217;s finished "running" all the remaining races it applies the league&#8217;s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished.  It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times <a href="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html">(try it yourself)</a>, keeping track of how many "seasons" each driver finishes where.  Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.<div class="helpP"></div>
To help flush out each driver&#8217;s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining races in a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the <span class="b">change</span> columns are since the end of yesterday.   The biggest movers up and down are in bold.  The dirvers are ordered by their odds of making the Chase.  Click on a driver to see his what if scenarios.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Last:</span> place the driver finished in the last race.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Points:</span> total points.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">>12th:</span> the number of points above (or below) the 12th seed.  The 12th seed is the last that makes the Chase.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Wins:</span> does not include non-point races like the Bud Shootout.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Chance will make Chase:</span> this is what we care about.  Out of the millions of simulated seasons they made the Chase this percentage of the time. Sums the chances at positions 1-12.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Win Cup:</span> this is what we "really" care about.  Out of the millions of simulated seasons they made the Chase and went on to win the cup this percentage of the time.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Chance driver will be at position when Chase starts</span>  (before the point fairy arrives)  The numbers are rounded percentages, so a 0 means a very small number that rounded to 0.  You can hover your mouse above a number to see the "full" percentage and what the driver did to get there.  If there is a blank space for a position, the driver never finished there after any of the millions of simulated seasons, although it still might be mathematically possible.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Avg:</span> Average finishing position at the start of the Chase.  It is the arithmetic mean, so if they come in 1st half the time and 5th the other half the average would be 3 (even though they never actually finish 3rd).  The sign of the average change is flipped so negative is bad.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Win no Chase:</span> a driver&#8217;s chance of winning the cup if there was no Chase format.  Same races, just no point fairy.  The <span class="b">better?</span> column shows the difference between this and the real chances, so green means the driver hates the Chase.<div class="helpP"></div>
<span class="b">Money:</span> total prize money.  Does not include non-point races like the Bud Shootout.