Sports Club Stats calculates each rider’s odds of winning the championship and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and results for past races. Each week it grabs any new results from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking results for each remaining race. When the simulation "runs" a race it gives each rider an equal chance of finishing in any spot, like picking numbers from a hat. When it’s finished "running" all the remaining races it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each rider finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.
To help flush out each rider’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or fail to qualify for the remaining races in a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of yesterday. The biggest movers up and down are in bold. The riders are ordered by their odds of winning the championship (more interesting than their record). Click on a rider to see their what if scenarios.
Points Back Starts Wins: Current standngs.
Chance will win championship: This is what we care about. Out of the millions of simulated seasons they won the championship this percentage of the time.
Chance rider will finish the season at position: The numbers are rounded percentages, so a 0 means a very small number that rounded to 0. You can hover your mouse above a number to see the "full" percentage and what the rider did to get there. If there is a blank space for a position the rider never finished there after any of the millions of simulated seasons, although it still might be mathematically possible.
Avg: Average finishing position at the end of the season. It is the arithmetic mean, so if they come in 1st half the time and 5th the other half the average would be 3 (even though they never actually finish 3rd). The sign of the average change is flipped so negative is bad.