Minnesota Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.08 to 54.7%
1-0-1   .750

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Vikings vs Bills+6.7-2.6-12.1
+5.2-2.6-9.5
-0.4*+0.0+0.7
+0.7-0.2-1.2
Cardinals vs Bears+1.5*+0.2-1.3
+3.4+0.5-2.9
+0.1*+0.0-0.0
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Packers+0.8-0.5-1.2
+2.8-0.6-3.9
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Lions vs Patriots-0.7*-0.0+0.8
-0.9*-0.0+1.0
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Panthers vs Bengals-0.6*+0.0+0.7
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Chiefs vs 49ers+0.5+0.5-0.7
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Steelers-0.5*+0.2+0.7
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Colts-0.4*+0.1+0.5
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.2*-0.0+0.4
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Texans vs NY Giants+0.3*-0.0-0.3
Seahawks vs Cowboys+0.1*-0.1-0.2
Falcons vs Saints-0.0*+0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
LA Rams vs Vikings-7.4+2.1+12.3
-5.7+1.2+9.5
+0.3-0.1-0.4
-0.7+0.2+1.2
Packers vs Bills-1.1+0.4+1.9
-2.4+1.1+4.0
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Bears vs Buccaneers-0.9*-0.1+1.1
-2.7+0.7+3.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
LA Chargers vs 49ers+0.5*+0.2-0.7
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Bengals-0.6*-0.2+0.7
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Titans vs Eagles+0.4*-0.2-0.5
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Saints+0.3*-0.0-0.3
Cowboys vs Lions+0.2*-0.1-0.3
+0.8-0.3-1.2
Cardinals vs Seahawks+0.2*-0.2-0.2
+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vikings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.514-0-0InYes1000No7,120
1513-0-1InYes100No715
14.513-1-0In100.0%10000No50,347
12-0-2InYes100No70
1412-1-1In99.99910No9,042*
13.512-2-0In99.997300No314,951
11-1-2InYes964No694
1311-2-1In99.6918000No52,041
10-1-3InYes955No44
12.511-3-0In98.884141010No1,203,116
10-2-2In99.08513101No3,919*
1210-3-1In97.269253030No182,315
9-2-3In97.9722422No193
11.510-4-0100.0%93.9533560600No3,130,911
9-3-2In94.054346060No12,421*
119-4-1100.088.2314016211100No428,774
8-3-3In89.13240151101No542*
10.59-5-099.979.31536254182000No5,870,430
8-4-299.979.8153625418200No26,172*
108-5-198.666.55212912249100No718,392
7-4-398.867.8520311224710No938
9.58-6-094.051.9182518241851000No8,170,686
7-5-294.151.81825182418510No39,262*
97-6-173.734.902122114241872000No885,442
6-5-373.733.3021120142618710No1,325
8.57-7-043.821.500418418272082000No8,579,192
6-6-243.321.2041741827208200No42,050*
86-7-117.210.1019161625231351000No810,563
5-6-318.310.21101716262212510No1,105
7.56-8-04.84.3040041326281761000No6,828,269
5-7-24.54.004004132528186100No32,830*
75-8-11.31.30100131121272211300No550,123
4-7-32.11.8200572228231021No768
6.55-9-00.30.3000001619302713300.0%4,099,217
4-8-20.30.300171830271430No18,292*
64-9-10.00.00000161829281430.1272,785
3-8-3OutNo151430291740.7306
5.54-10-00.00.000015183532101.01,828,825
3-9-20.00.00005183432101.27,438*
53-10-1OutNo00172541269.096,818
2-9-3OutNo1111345295.689
4.53-11-0OutNo00111404822.7586,799
2-10-2OutNo0211384924.81,921
42-11-1OutNo0005286748.523,172*
3.52-12-0OutNo01168368.2128,067
1-11-2OutNo0168370.6306*
31-12-1OutNo089184.33,373
2.51-13-0OutNo039793.317,099*
20-13-1OutNo29896.1203
1.50-14-0OutNo010099.34,528
Total:54.7%38.0%10101099877665443210.6%45,044,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Vikings vs Bills-1.5+0.6+2.6
Cardinals vs Bears-0.2-0.0+0.2
Redskins vs Packers-0.1+0.0+0.2
Lions vs Patriots+0.1+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Lottery seed
LA Rams vs Vikings+1.5-0.4-2.5
Packers vs Bills+0.1-0.1-0.3
Bears vs Buccaneers+0.1-0.0-0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.514-0-010000
1513-0-1991
14.513-1-099100
12-0-2991
1412-1-196310
13.512-2-09253000
11-1-29244
1311-2-1791380000
10-1-38695
12.511-3-0651914010100
10-2-26520130101
1210-3-14029232300300
9-2-3413122222
11.510-4-020322956006000
9-3-22034295600600
119-4-16252415141201011000
8-3-362627141421911
10.59-5-011413232054015320000
8-4-21151323205401532000
108-5-1053171514101131081100
7-4-3053171715101131161100
9.58-6-0010852013571714451000
7-5-20108520135717145510
97-6-10021119112131014109520000
6-5-3021119112121115119520
8.57-7-00004314041177151711510000
6-6-200431404116815171151000
86-7-1001190106138131617138310000
5-6-3119107137131816137300
7.56-8-000400000026132123179310000
5-7-200400000261321231893100
75-8-1001000000148131820171152000
4-7-32001137131721199610
6.55-9-00000000015122125201141000
4-8-20001512212519114100
64-9-10000251118232114610
3-8-3151015262413521
5.54-10-00000151425281971
3-9-200151326281971
53-10-100013102131269
2-9-34111131366
4.53-11-000029273923
2-10-20029254025
42-11-1002123748
3.52-12-00042768
1-11-2052571
31-12-111584
2.51-13-000793
20-13-1496
1.50-14-0199
Total:45554545453433332344322232221111