Baltimore Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Bills+7.6-1.5-10.0
+4.5-1.2-5.8
-1.5*-0.1+2.0
+0.9-0.1-1.2
Colts vs Bengals+0.5*-0.2-0.7
+1.5*-0.2-2.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Lions vs NY Jets+0.3*-0.4-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.2-0.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*-0.0+0.3
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*-0.2+0.3
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Browns vs Steelers+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.5-0.2
Eagles vs Falcons+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1*-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Bengals vs Ravens-9.2+1.4+12.1
-8.1+1.1+10.6
+1.3-0.6-1.7
-1.0+0.2+1.4
Saints vs Browns+1.0*+0.1-1.3
+1.6*+0.2-2.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs-0.7*-0.1+0.9
-1.6*+0.3+2.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*+0.2-0.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Titans vs Texans+0.1*-0.2-0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ravens finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No912*
1515-1-0InYes1000No1,945*
14.514-1-1InYes100No423
1414-2-0In99.9%9910No14,890*
13.513-2-1In99.89820No2,873
1313-3-0In99.494501No70,482
12-2-2InYes937No274*
12.512-3-1In99.089901No13,424*
1212-4-0In96.876191030No235,540
11-3-2In96.97619203No1,104
11.511-4-1In94.162294060No40,328
10-3-3In96.4672454No55
1111-5-0100.0%86.7383711112100No575,363
10-4-2In87.03937101121No3,242*
10.510-5-199.978.6193719319200No89,531
9-4-3In79.31640211174No135
1010-6-098.164.062326924102000No1,068,628
9-5-298.564.962426824910No6,440*
9.59-6-192.749.219241524206100No151,189
8-5-393.252.21112217241751No278*
99-7-068.932.8021218132319930000No1,536,567
8-6-269.832.80212181423199200No9,765*
8.58-7-137.418.9004153152623113000No194,628
7-6-339.621.20516316242111410No396
88-8-014.79.6019141322231682000No1,733,841
7-7-214.89.701905122323178200No11,097*
7.57-8-13.73.5030028202823113000No195,862
6-7-34.23.94019242523113No361
77-9-01.31.3010002716242516710No1,535,470
6-8-21.11.11002616252516710No9,468*
6.56-9-10.30.3000311253121710.0%151,278
5-8-3OutNo031324292362No275
66-10-00.10.1000131225312260.31,066,817
5-9-20.10.100131025322370.26,431*
5.55-10-10.00.000002103039192.289,551
4-9-3OutNo373438182.0147
55-11-00.00.00000417413812.1573,821
4-10-2OutNo0417423712.23,242*
4.54-11-1OutNo006336132.540,506
3-10-3OutNo4326434.775
44-12-0OutNo002227653.2235,492
3-11-2OutNo02217752.11,188
3.53-12-1OutNo0108976.513,177*
33-13-0OutNo069486.770,829
2-12-2OutNo69488.5260
2.52-13-1OutNo029895.12,887*
22-14-0OutNo019997.714,894*
1.51-14-1OutNo10099.5401*
11-15-0OutNo010099.71,913*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes881*
Total:37.5%25.0%66666666666666663.1%9,778,576

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Bills-1.8+0.3+2.4
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets-0.0+0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.0-0.0-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Bengals vs Ravens+2.0-0.4-2.6
Saints vs Browns-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Titans vs Texans-0.1+0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs+0.1+0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0100
15.515-0-1973
1515-1-09900
14.514-1-1991
1414-2-098110
13.513-2-196220
1313-3-08685001
12-2-28587
12.512-3-177139001
1212-4-05323191100300
11-3-25422181203
11.511-4-13329272400600
1111-5-01226279100101211000
10-4-2132627109011211
10.510-5-12172018182301622000
9-4-3115271318411614
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-206618179811599110
9.59-6-101098151329151736100
8-5-31110913161101415151
99-7-000221010821111121410520000
8-6-2002210117212121214104100
8.58-7-10003511031141120181031000
7-6-3054123214918188511
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-201180042611151614116310
7.57-8-1003000002613212418931000
6-7-313011513172719940
77-9-000100000125101417171510621000
6-8-201000025914171815105210
6.56-9-100001391824231462000
5-8-32381925231350
66-10-0000000251017212115720
5-9-2000141017212115720
5.55-10-1000139202924112
4-9-31311182922142
55-11-0000002819302812
4-10-2002818322812
4.54-11-10015204132
3-10-315154435
44-12-0002103553
3-11-201113652
3.53-12-10022176
33-13-0011387
2-12-201188
2.52-13-10595
22-14-00298
1.51-14-10100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333