NY Jets Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Lions vs NY Jets-6.5*+0.4+8.5
-4.8*+0.3+6.3
+1.3-0.5-1.8
-0.7+0.1+1.0
Patriots vs Texans-0.7*+0.2+0.9
-1.6+0.5+2.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans-0.7*+0.0+0.9
-1.6*+0.3+2.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.5*+0.1-0.7
+1.5*-0.1-2.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.3+0.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*+0.0+0.4
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*-0.2-0.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals+0.1*-0.0-0.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Browns vs Steelers+0.1*-0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.1*+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins+9.0-1.5-11.9
+7.8-1.7-10.2
-1.4*-0.2+1.9
+1.0-0.1-1.4
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.7*-0.2-0.9
+1.7-0.5-2.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.5*+0.0+0.6
-1.5*+0.2+1.9
-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Saints vs Browns+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*-0.2-0.3
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1*-0.2-0.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Jets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No905*
1515-1-0InYes1000No1,925*
14.514-1-1InYes100No435
1414-2-0In99.9%9910No14,985*
13.513-2-1In100.098200No2,964*
1313-3-0In99.5945001No70,962
12-2-2InYes9640No267
12.512-3-1In98.8909001No13,196*
1212-4-0In96.776201030No235,625
11-3-2In97.0781723No1,058
11.511-4-1In93.961293060No40,199
10-3-3In98.1652672No54
1111-5-0100.0%86.8383711112100No575,051
10-4-2100.087.740371011210No3,130*
10.510-5-199.978.5193719319200No90,451
9-4-3In80.82432233163No146
1010-6-098.163.962326924102000No1,067,675
9-5-298.365.462426924920No6,475*
9.59-6-192.849.6110241523206100No152,163
8-5-391.249.7072320251672No296
99-7-068.932.802121813231993000No1,536,917
8-6-269.933.50213181224199200No9,469*
8.58-7-137.218.90041531526231130000No195,633
7-6-338.518.202154172920921No369
88-8-014.79.60191413222316820000No1,730,362
7-7-214.19.101814132324168200No11,091*
7.57-8-13.73.5030028202823113000No195,389
6-7-33.73.430271727281141No377
77-9-01.31.30100027162425177100.0%1,537,426
6-8-21.11.1102616242616720No9,654*
6.56-9-10.20.2000031125312171No152,408
5-8-30.40.4021126332261No266
66-10-00.10.10000131124322260.31,066,685
5-9-20.00.000131124332260.26,255*
5.55-10-10.00.00002102939192.289,911
4-9-3OutNo3122635242.8141
55-11-00.00.00000417413812.1574,309
4-10-2OutNo00416404013.83,110*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326232.840,254
3-10-3OutNo7296419.656
44-12-0OutNo002227653.4234,816
3-11-2OutNo2227652.01,144
3.53-12-1OutNo0108976.513,122*
33-13-0OutNo0069486.570,354
2-12-2OutNo79385.2270
2.52-13-1OutNo19996.53,026*
22-14-0OutNo19997.614,630*
1.51-14-1OutNo19999.0396
11-15-0OutNo010099.41,896*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes878*
Total:37.5%25.0%66666666666666663.1%9,778,576

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Lions vs NY Jets+1.8-0.2-2.3
Browns vs Steelers-0.1+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.0*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins-2.0+0.3+2.6
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.1+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders-0.1+0.0+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-010000
14.514-1-11000
1414-2-097210
13.513-2-1962200
1313-3-087750001
12-2-2841140
12.512-3-1771390001
1212-4-05322191100300
11-3-2562217023
11.511-4-13329272300600
10-3-3283720672
1111-5-01226289110101211000
10-4-212282710100111110
10.510-5-12172018182301722000
9-4-3519171419331423
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-206618178901598120
9.59-6-101099151329141736100
8-5-3016716164916143710
99-7-000221010821111121410510000
8-6-20022101082101113151041000
8.58-7-10004411031141120181031000
7-6-30251141151316171141
88-8-000117010426111516141163100000
7-7-20117104261115161410631000
7.57-8-100300000261321231893100
6-7-33002713192716932
77-9-00010000001251014171715106210000
6-8-21000259141718151052100
6.56-9-10000139182422146200
5-8-3001191624271543
66-10-0000000251017212015720
5-9-20000241017212116720
5.55-10-1000139212925112
4-9-3158163023163
55-11-0000002819302812
4-10-2002820292814
4.54-11-1015204133
3-10-35274820
44-12-0002103553
3-11-212113552
3.53-12-1022176
33-13-00011387
2-12-211485
2.52-13-10396
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1199
11-15-0199
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333