Jacksonville Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*Average seed
NY Giants vs Jaguars-6.5+1.0+8.5
-4.8+0.4+6.4
-0.7+0.2+1.0
Dolphins vs Titans+0.7*-0.3-0.9
+1.7-0.5-2.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.7*-0.2-0.9
+1.6*-0.3-2.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.5*+0.0+0.7
-1.5*+0.2+2.0
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*-0.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.3+0.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets+0.3*+0.2-0.4
Ravens vs Bills-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Browns vs Steelers-0.1*+0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*Average seed
Jaguars vs Patriots+7.6-1.4-10.0
+4.8-1.1-6.3
+0.9-0.1-1.2
Redskins vs Colts+1.0*-0.2-1.3
+1.6*-0.0-2.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Titans vs Texans*+0.0+0.6-0.1
+0.1+0.8-0.2
Saints vs Browns+0.3*+0.3-0.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.1*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jaguars finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16InYes100972*
1515-1-0InYes10002,106*
14.514-1-1InYes991446
1414-2-0In100.0%9910016,094*
13.513-2-1In99.998203,206*
1313-3-0In99.59450176,341
12-2-2InYes9460323
12.512-3-1In98.98990114,286*
1212-4-0In96.676191030254,848
11-3-2In96.97917131,302
11.511-4-1In93.66129406043,313
10-3-3In96.661323359
1111-5-0100.0%86.838371111210621,840
10-4-2100.087.6383811112103,391*
10.510-5-199.978.319372031920096,400
9-4-3In81.42138176163161
1010-6-098.164.0623269241020001,155,164
9-5-298.164.5623269249207,034*
9.59-6-192.849.519241523206100162,837
8-5-394.648.01102413272041294
99-7-068.932.8021218132319930001,664,419
8-6-270.532.7021218132419820010,233*
8.58-7-137.419.0004153152623113000212,125
7-6-337.019.0041531626221230400
88-8-014.79.6001914132223168200001,877,279
7-7-214.49.501914132224167200011,978*
7.57-8-13.73.5030028202823113000211,916
6-7-32.41.90202101828261031420
77-9-01.31.30100027162425177201,661,382
6-8-21.21.1100261624261761010,414*
6.56-9-10.30.3000031125312171163,993
5-8-3OutNo041227311772314
66-10-00.10.10000131125312261,153,861
5-9-20.10.100031124322366,869*
5.55-10-10.00.000021129391997,423
4-9-3OutNo39263526172
55-11-00.00.000004174138622,032
4-10-2OutNo041839383,454*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326243,538
3-10-3OutNo10434863
44-12-0OutNo0022276254,399
3-11-2OutNo0221771,254
3.53-12-1OutNo0108914,349*
33-13-0OutNo069476,865
2-12-2OutNo0396288
2.52-13-1OutNo02983,210*
22-14-0OutNo19916,034*
1.51-14-1OutNo0100484
11-15-0OutNo01002,048*
0-0.5OutNo100975*
Total:37.5%25.0%666666666666666610,582,608

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
NY Giants vs Jaguars+1.8-0.3-2.3
Dolphins vs Titans-0.1+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.1+0.0+0.1
Browns vs Steelers+0.1-0.0-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons-0.0*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Jaguars vs Patriots-1.9+0.3+2.4
Redskins vs Colts-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.1+0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.0-0.0-0.1
Titans vs Texans-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-09900
14.514-1-19901
1414-2-0981100
13.513-2-1953200
1313-3-08685001
12-2-2841060
12.512-3-177129001
1212-4-05322191100300
11-3-25524161130
11.511-4-13329272400600
1111-5-01226279110101211000
10-4-212262810110111110
10.510-5-12172017182301732000
9-4-3120162216161413
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-2066171898115991200
9.59-6-11099151339151736100
8-5-310108161121314182410
99-7-000221010821111121410520000
8-6-2002210108211121314941000
8.58-7-1000351103114112018103100
7-6-300351032141021201030
88-8-000011701042611151614116310000
7-7-2011810427121516141063100
7.57-8-100300000261321231893100
6-7-3020151622221710410
77-9-0001000000125101417171510621000
6-8-201000259151718151052100
6.56-9-1000001391824221462000
5-8-30014918232214610
66-10-0000000251017212015720
5-9-20000251016212115820
5.55-10-1000039202925112
4-9-3139202428105
55-11-0000012819292812
4-10-2012819312911
4.54-11-1015214132
3-10-32255122
44-12-0002103553
3-11-20193554
3.53-12-1022176
33-13-0011387
2-12-201585
2.52-13-10595
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1199
11-15-00100
0.50-15-1100
00-16-00100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333