Miami Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*Average seed
Dolphins vs Titans+7.6-1.7-10.0
+4.8-1.1-6.3
+1.0-0.1-1.3
Lions vs NY Jets+1.0*-0.1-1.3
+1.6*-0.0-2.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.7*+0.2+0.9
-1.6*+0.1+2.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.5*-0.1-0.7
+1.5*-0.1-2.0
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*-0.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.2+0.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.1-0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins-9.2+1.0+12.1
-8.1+0.7+10.7
-1.0+0.2+1.4
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.7*-0.2-0.9
+1.7*-0.3-2.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.5*-0.0+0.7
-1.5*+0.2+2.0
Saints vs Browns+0.3*+0.4-0.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*+0.1-0.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dolphins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16InYes100992*
1515-1-0InYes10002,087*
14.514-1-1InYes991487
1414-2-0In99.9%991015,803*
13.513-2-1In100.098203,210*
1313-3-0In99.59450176,930
12-2-2InYes955276
12.512-3-1In98.98990113,939*
1212-4-0In96.876191030254,346
11-3-2In97.47818131,228*
11.511-4-1In94.06129406043,319
10-3-3In92.861284769
1111-5-0100.0%86.8383711112100623,239
10-4-2100.087.2393710112003,437*
10.510-5-199.978.319371931920097,139
9-4-399.480.819362511531177
1010-6-098.164.062326924102001,155,774
9-5-298.664.5623269259107,040*
9.59-6-192.949.419241524206100163,682
8-5-392.949.192317232170281
99-7-069.032.8021218132319930001,663,841
8-6-269.632.6021218132419920010,610*
8.58-7-137.218.7003153152623113000211,521
7-6-340.723.0220414272281366
88-8-014.79.60191413222316820001,874,134
7-7-214.69.8191413222416720011,918*
7.57-8-13.73.5030028202823113000211,950
6-7-33.22.7020182127221241407
77-9-01.31.30100027162425167101,662,569
6-8-21.21.10100261625251771010,423*
6.56-9-10.20.2000031125312171162,774
5-8-30.30.30214193419101300
66-10-00.10.10000131125322261,155,845
5-9-20.10.100031124322366,946*
5.55-10-10.00.000021029391997,010
4-9-3OutNo213274017168*
55-11-00.00.000004174138621,579
4-10-2OutNo041639413,441*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326143,913*
44-12-0OutNo00022276254,317
3-11-2OutNo0322751,256*
3.53-12-1OutNo0108914,371*
33-13-0OutNo0069476,438
2-12-2OutNo0793294
2.52-13-1OutNo2983,230
22-14-0OutNo19916,031*
1.51-14-1OutNo199459
11-15-0OutNo01002,074*
0.50-15-1OutNo49624
00-16-0OutNo100944
Total:37.5%25.0%666666666666666610,582,608

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Dolphins vs Titans-1.9+0.3+2.5
Lions vs NY Jets-0.1+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.0*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins+2.0-0.3-2.7
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.1+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1-0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens-0.1-0.0+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-09900
14.514-1-19901
1414-2-098110
13.513-2-196320
1313-3-08785001
12-2-28785
12.512-3-177129001
1212-4-05422191100300
11-3-25622181130
11.511-4-13229272400600
10-3-3352623447
1111-5-01226279110101211000
10-4-212272891001111000
10.510-5-12172017172301732000
9-4-32171917241113231
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-2066171798116991100
9.59-6-11099151329151736100
8-5-30981513481518270
99-7-000221010821111121410510000
8-6-2002210117211121214104100
8.58-7-1000341103114112018103100
7-6-3281341131020168501
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-2118104261115161411631000
7.57-8-1003000002613212318931000
6-7-302025151924171141
77-9-0001000000125101417171510621000
6-8-20100125914171815115210
6.56-9-10000139182422146200
5-8-300481627211482
66-10-0000000251017212115720
5-9-2000241016212115820
5.55-10-1000139212924112
4-9-31313192624122
55-11-0000002819302812
4-10-2002918292813
4.54-11-10015204133
44-12-00002103553
3-11-201113354
3.53-12-1022276
33-13-0011387
2-12-211287
2.52-13-10495
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1199
11-15-00100
0.50-15-1496
00-16-0100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333