Miami Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Dolphins vs Titans+7.7-1.4-10.0
+4.8-1.0-6.3
-1.5*+0.0+2.0
+1.0-0.2-1.3
Lions vs NY Jets+1.0*-0.1-1.3
+1.6*-0.2-2.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.7*-0.1+0.9
-1.6*+0.3+2.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.5*+0.0-0.7
+1.5*-0.4-2.0
+0.1*-0.1-0.2
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*+0.2+0.4
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.0+0.4
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.3-0.4
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins-9.2+0.7+12.1
-8.1+0.5+10.7
+1.3-0.5-1.7
-1.0+0.1+1.4
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.7*-0.4-0.9
+1.7*-0.2-2.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.5*+0.1+0.6
-1.5*+0.2+1.9
-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Saints vs Browns+0.3*+0.0-0.4
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*-0.3-0.4
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.1*+0.1+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dolphins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516PickCount
15-16InYes100No2,853*
14.514-1-1InYes1000No418*
1414-2-0In100.0%9910No14,799*
13.513-2-1In100.098200No2,873*
1313-3-0In99.5945010No70,998
12-2-2In99.396301No291
12.512-3-1In98.989901No13,150*
1212-4-0In96.776191030No234,390
11-3-2In97.47522103No1,104
11.511-4-1In94.161294060No39,937
10-3-3In91.8612468No49
1111-5-0100.0%86.738371111210No574,624
10-4-2100.087.738371211200No3,113*
10.510-5-199.978.6193720319200No90,192
9-4-3In80.32331224182No157
1010-6-098.163.96232692410200No1,068,046
9-5-298.563.3723259251010No6,439*
9.59-6-192.749.319241524206100No151,037
8-5-395.350.7173013281740No300
99-7-068.932.8021218132319930000No1,536,439
8-6-269.432.10213171325199200No9,760*
8.58-7-137.319.0004153152623113000No195,748
7-6-337.320.5051521526231130No351
88-8-014.79.6019141322231682000No1,731,676
7-7-214.08.901815132224177200No10,838*
7.57-8-13.73.5030028202823113000No194,992
6-7-33.42.631182029221141No348*
77-9-01.31.30100027162425167100.0%1,536,929
6-8-21.31.30102615242617610No9,524*
6.56-9-10.20.20000311253121710.0151,344
5-8-30.40.4002927282751No247
66-10-00.10.10000131225312260.31,067,771
5-9-20.10.100031124332260.26,423*
5.55-10-10.00.00002103039192.189,381
4-9-3OutNo4102941163.4146
55-11-00.00.00000417413812.0574,987
4-10-2OutNo1316423912.43,230*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326232.640,725
3-10-3OutNo7286530.060
44-12-0OutNo002227653.3236,233
3-11-2OutNo03217650.31,163
3.53-12-1OutNo00109076.413,125*
33-13-0OutNo069486.770,882
2-12-2OutNo59589.9258
2.52-13-1OutNo029895.03,030*
22-14-0OutNo19997.515,010
1-13-2OutNo100Yes45
1.51-14-1OutNo010099.3418
11-15-0OutNo010099.61,828*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes895*
Total:37.5%25.0%66666666666666663.1%9,778,576

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Dolphins vs Titans-1.9+0.3+2.5
Lions vs NY Jets-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.0*-0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.0-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins+2.0-0.3-2.7
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bengals vs Ravens-0.1-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1*-0.0-0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-01000
14.514-1-110000
1414-2-098110
13.513-2-1962200
1313-3-086850010
12-2-2897301
12.512-3-177139001
1212-4-05322191100300
11-3-25322211103
11.511-4-13329272400600
10-3-3273522268
1111-5-01226279100101211000
10-4-21226289111111100
10.510-5-12172017182301622000
9-4-3518141721141622
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-2067171698016910110
9.59-6-110991513291517361000
8-5-3106121811291915240
99-7-000221010821111121410510000
8-6-2002210107211121314105100
8.58-7-1000451103114112018103100
7-6-305412211414181511401
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-2011710426121516141063100
7.57-8-1003000002613212318931000
6-7-33134132025151331
77-9-000100000125914171715106210000
6-8-2001000259141818151152100
6.56-9-1000001391824221462000
5-8-300291720241774
66-10-0000000251017212015720
5-9-2000241016222214720
5.55-10-1000039202925112
4-9-3131118292783
55-11-0000002819302812
4-10-2002818293012
4.54-11-1015204133
3-10-3225184330
44-12-00002103553
3-11-212113650
3.53-12-10022176
33-13-0011287
2-12-21090
2.52-13-10595
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1199
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333