Indianapolis Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.005 to 7.6%
1-5-0   .167

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
NY Jets 42 Colts 34 -3.1
-1.9
+2.4
-0.7
Cowboys 40 Jaguars 7 +0.8
+1.0
+0.4
+0.1
Titans 0 Ravens 21 +0.3
+0.7
+0.3
Texans 20 Bills 13 -0.3
-0.4
-0.1
Dolphins 31 Bears 28 -0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Vikings 27 Cardinals 17 -0.4
NY Giants 13 Eagles 34 -0.3
Packers 33 49ers 30 -0.3
Falcons 34 Buccaneers 29 +0.3
Bengals 21 Steelers 28 +0.2
-0.1
Patriots 43 Chiefs 40 -0.2
-0.0
Raiders 3 Seahawks 27 -0.1
+0.1
Broncos 20 LA Rams 23 -0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Colts vs Bills+2.0-1.6-3.7
+1.8-1.5-3.3
-3.2-0.9+6.0
+0.6-0.3-1.2
Jaguars vs Texans+0.5*-0.0-0.6
+0.6*+0.0-0.7
LA Chargers vs Titans+0.4-0.1-0.7
+0.5-0.2-0.9
+0.2-0.1-0.4
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Vikings-0.0*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Dolphins vs Lions-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.2*+0.0+0.3
Chiefs vs Bengals+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.2*-0.0-0.3
Bears vs Patriots+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.2*-0.1-0.3
Ravens vs Saints-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Browns+0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Cardinals vs Broncos+0.7-0.4-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
49ers vs LA Rams+0.6*+0.0-0.4
Falcons vs NY Giants-0.2+0.1+0.3
Eagles vs Panthers-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colts finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516PickCount
1110-0-0100.0%99.8%8394112000No253,247
10.59-0-199.996.732746212100No33,177
109-1-098.090.5073549342000No2,330,848
8-0-298.692.60737482410No2,139
9.58-1-191.578.00221554962000No291,784
7-0-394.584.9332513733No73
98-2-066.658.60065317141361000No10,199,723
7-1-270.363.105581613124100No16,185
6-0-450.050.05050No2
8.57-2-141.237.30136041322176100No1,129,025
6-1-342.937.013606132115710No489
87-3-018.718.30018003112426143000No26,112,422
6-2-219.819.501900312252612300No54,566
5-1-412.512.5131919446No16
7.56-3-16.26.206000315302913300No2,517,160
5-2-35.65.550031530281430No1,473
76-4-01.81.8020000211273219510No43,357,788
5-3-21.71.7200212283318500No103,929
4-2-4OutNo3182929156No34
6.55-4-10.20.2000021231341730No3,561,161
4-3-30.10.10021230361730No2,416
65-5-00.00.0000021332341620.0%48,779,503
4-4-20.00.000021332341520.0121,809
3-3-4OutNo3103340103No30
5.54-5-10.00.0000318393280.13,320,455
3-4-3OutNo0318393370.12,174
54-6-00.00.0000162744223.537,658,728
3-5-2OutNo0062744223.290,969
2-4-4OutNo6454263.033
4.53-6-1OutNo0011345418.22,036,243
2-5-3OutNo21243438.51,248
43-7-0OutNo0005346134.419,701,117
2-6-2OutNo04336333.541,538
1-5-4OutNo9276418.211
3.52-7-1OutNo01207949.9796,937
1-6-3OutNo1178250.8378
32-8-0OutNo00108977.96,680,375
1-7-2OutNo089278.010,802
0-6-4OutNo100Yes1
2.51-8-1OutNo039788.4178,907
0-7-3OutNo79390.542
21-9-0OutNo19996.61,326,991
0-8-2OutNo010096.51,150
1-1.5OutNo10099.7151,734*
Total:7.6%7.0%0016001246811131516157.3%210,868,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/11100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets 42 Colts 34 +1.5
Bengals 21 Steelers 28 +0.1
Broncos 20 LA Rams 23 -0.1
Raiders 3 Seahawks 27 +0.0
Patriots 43 Chiefs 40 -0.0
Dolphins 31 Bears 28 -0.0
Redskins 23 Panthers 17 -0.0
NY Giants 13 Eagles 34 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/18100.0*Lottery seed
Colts vs Bills-1.2+0.3+2.3
49ers vs LA Rams+0.1-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Lions-0.1-0.0+0.1
Jaguars vs Texans-0.1-0.0+0.1
Bears vs Patriots+0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Vikings-0.0+0.0+0.1
Cardinals vs Broncos-0.0-0.1+0.0
Falcons vs NY Giants+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1110-0-00815243471200000
10.59-0-103720331320120100
109-1-0000611243811214020000
8-0-201711253612114011
9.58-1-10023183619138262000
7-0-33427302111733
98-2-000005143901258139310000
7-1-2005154301248117310
6-0-45050
8.57-2-100153100034131815720000
6-1-314320064101814730
87-3-00001180000013916201710410000
6-2-2011900001410171916931000
5-1-41313251313619
7.56-3-10060000014112124199310000
5-2-3500031220251911410
76-4-00020000000251220231911410000
5-3-2020002613212419103100
4-2-463293512123
6.55-4-100000271726251561000
4-3-300026172525176100
65-5-0000000015132226209200
4-4-2000015132326199200
3-3-431020431373
5.54-5-10001311243021810
3-4-300311223121910
54-6-000000015152831173
3-5-200015152931173
2-4-43692739123
4.53-6-1000152036298
2-5-30152035328
43-7-000004194234
2-6-2004194334
1-5-49363618
3.52-7-100194050
1-6-3184051
32-8-000022078
1-7-2022078
0-6-4100
2.51-8-1001188
0-7-31090
21-9-000397
0-8-2397
1.50-9-1199
10-10-00100
Total:00000115000001112333355667888887