Indianapolis Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Colts vs Bengals+7.6-1.4-10.0
+4.5-0.9-5.8
-1.5*-0.2+2.0
+0.9-0.1-1.2
NY Giants vs Jaguars+1.0*-0.2-1.3
+1.6*-0.1-2.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.7*-0.2-0.9
+1.7*-0.3-2.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.7*-0.4-0.9
+1.7*-0.4-2.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.3+0.4
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*-0.1+0.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons-0.1+0.2+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys+0.1*-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Division100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Redskins vs Colts-6.5+0.9+8.5
-4.8+0.5+6.3
+1.4-0.5-1.8
-0.7+0.1+1.0
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.7*+0.1+0.9
-1.6*+0.4+2.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns+0.3*-0.1-0.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.1*+0.0-0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bengals vs Ravens+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Titans vs Texans+0.1+0.6-0.2
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.1-0.2-0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colts finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsDivision12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No898*
1515-1-0InYes1000No1,945*
14.514-1-1InYes1000No418
1414-2-0In100.0%99100No14,820*
13.513-2-1In99.998200No2,880*
1313-3-0In99.594501No70,507
12-2-2In99.69640No267
12.512-3-1In98.9891001No13,198*
1212-4-0In96.776201030No235,321
11-3-2In97.57719102No1,100*
11.511-4-1In93.862293060No40,067
10-3-3In94.6682345No56
1111-5-0100.0%86.7383711113100No575,027
10-4-2100.086.839371011300No3,160*
10.510-5-199.978.519372031920No89,711
9-4-3In82.41636282152No142
1010-6-098.164.06232692410200No1,066,453
9-5-298.364.4622279241020No6,426*
9.59-6-192.849.619241523206100No151,380
8-5-392.549.61112612241961No268
99-7-068.832.7021218132319930000No1,535,841
8-6-270.232.00212171424198200No9,754*
8.58-7-137.118.9003153152623113000No195,395
7-6-339.721.2051631529181120No378
88-8-014.79.60191413222316820000No1,732,641
7-7-214.19.101814132224178200No11,119*
7.57-8-13.73.5030028202823113000No195,273
6-7-32.62.420182425201451No382*
77-9-01.31.30100027162425167100.0%1,537,613
6-8-20.90.901002616252517710No9,690*
6.56-9-10.20.20000311253121710.0151,445
5-8-30.40.40121025332170No267
66-10-00.10.1000131125322260.31,067,714
5-9-20.00.000031125312370.36,442*
5.55-10-10.00.00002102939192.190,598
4-9-3OutNo1116343018No164
55-11-00.00.00000417413812.0573,975
4-10-2OutNo0417394012.33,129*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326132.840,138
3-10-3OutNo7365731.161
44-12-0OutNo002227653.3235,614
3-11-2OutNo2207754.51,129*
3.53-12-1OutNo0109076.713,072*
33-13-0OutNo0069486.871,439
2-12-2OutNo69487.6282
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.62,938*
22-14-0OutNo19997.614,845*
1.51-14-1OutNo010099.5434
11-15-0OutNo010099.81,857*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes903*
Total:37.5%25.0%66666666666666663.1%9,778,576

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Colts vs Bengals-1.8+0.2+2.4
NY Giants vs Jaguars-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.1+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans-0.1+0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.0+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys+0.0+0.0-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons-0.0+0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Redskins vs Colts+1.8-0.3-2.3
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.1+0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1-0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.0-0.0-0.1
Titans vs Texans-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-010000
14.514-1-19900
1414-2-0981100
13.513-2-1963200
1313-3-08775001
12-2-290540
12.512-3-1761310001
1212-4-05323191100300
11-3-254231811020
11.511-4-13329272300600
10-3-330382345
1111-5-01226279110101211000
10-4-21227289100112100
10.510-5-1217201718230172200
9-4-3313181823521512
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-2066161710811599120
9.59-6-11099151329141736100
8-5-3111917102101416361
99-7-0000221010821111121410510000
8-6-2002210107212121314104100
8.58-7-10003511031141120181031000
7-6-30561130151417178300
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-2011710426111516151163100
7.57-8-1003000002613212318931000
6-7-3200016142223189310
77-9-0001000001251014171715106210000
6-8-20010000251014171815106210
6.56-9-100001391824221462000
5-8-3004820202315530
66-10-0000000251017212015720
5-9-20000141016222115820
5.55-10-10000139202924112
4-9-31582330258
55-11-0000002819302812
4-10-2003918302812
4.54-11-1015204133
3-10-35184631
44-12-0002103553
3-11-20193554
3.53-12-1022177
33-13-00011287
2-12-211288
2.52-13-10496
22-14-00298
1.51-14-10100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333